Models for the economic evaluation of health technologies provide valuable information to decision makers. The choice of model structure is rarely discussed in published studies and can affect the results produced. Many papers describe good modelling practice, but few describe how to choose from the many types of available models. This paper develops a new taxonomy of model structures. The horizontal axis of the taxonomy describes assumptions about the role of expected values, randomness, the heterogeneity of entities, and the degree of non-Markovian structure. Commonly used aggregate models, including decision trees and Markov models require large population numbers, homogeneous sub-groups and linear interactions. Individual models are more flexible, but may require replications with different random numbers to estimate expected values. The vertical axis of the taxonomy describes potential interactions between the individual actors, as well as how the interactions occur through time. Models using interactions, such as system dynamics, some Markov models, and discrete event simulation are fairly uncommon in the health economics but are necessary for modelling infectious diseases and systems with constrained resources. The paper provides guidance for choosing a model, based on key requirements, including output requirements, the population size, and system complexity.
Home energy management systems (HEMS) are a key technology for managing future electricity distribution systems as they can shift household electricity usage away from peak consumption times and can reduce the amount of local generation penetrating into the wider distribution system. In doing this they can also provide significant cost savings to domestic electricity users. This paper studies a HEMS which minimizes the daily energy costs, reduces energy lost to the utility, and improves photovoltaic (PV) self-consumption by controlling a home battery storage system (HBSS). The study assesses factors such as the overnight charging level, forecasting uncertainty, control sample time and tariff policy. Two management strategies have been used to control the HBSS; (1) a HEMS based on a real-time controller (RTC) and (2) a HEMS based on a model predictive controller (MPC). Several methods have been developed for home demand energy forecasting and PV generation forecasting and their impact on the HEMS is assessed. The influence of changing the battery’s capacity and the PV system size on the energy costs and the lost energy are also evaluated. A significant reduction in energy costs and energy lost to the utility can be achieved by combining a suitable overnight charging level, an appropriate sample time, and an accurate forecasting tool. The HEMS has been implemented on an experimental house emulation system to demonstrate it can operate in real-time.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.