Background Lateral flow device (LFD) viral antigen immunoassays have been developed around the world as diagnostic tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection. They have been proposed to deliver an infrastructure-light, cost-economical solution giving results within half an hour. Methods LFDs were initially reviewed by a Department of Health and Social Care team, part of the UK government, from which 64 were selected for further evaluation from 1st August to 15th December 2020. Standardised laboratory evaluations, and for those that met the published criteria, field testing in the Falcon-C19 research study and UK pilots were performed (UK COVID-19 testing centres, hospital, schools, armed forces). Findings 4/64 LFDs so far have desirable performance characteristics (orient Gene, Deepblue, Abbott and Innova SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Qualitative Test). All these LFDs have a viral antigen detection of >90% at 100,000 RNA copies/ml. 8951 Innova LFD tests were performed with a kit failure rate of 5.6% (502/8951, 95% CI: 5.1–6.1), false positive rate of 0.32% (22/6954, 95% CI: 0.20–0.48). Viral antigen detection/sensitivity across the sampling cohort when performed by laboratory scientists was 78.8% (156/198, 95% CI 72.4–84.3). Interpretation Our results suggest LFDs have promising performance characteristics for mass population testing and can be used to identify infectious positive individuals. The Innova LFD shows good viral antigen detection/sensitivity with excellent specificity, although kit failure rates and the impact of training are potential issues. These results support the expanded evaluation of LFDs, and assessment of greater access to testing on COVID-19 transmission. Funding Department of Health and Social Care. University of Oxford. Public Health England Porton Down, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, National Institute of Health Research.

The influenza pandemic that emerged in 2009 provided an unprecedented opportunity to study adaptation of a virus recently acquired from an animal source during human transmission. In the United Kingdom, the novel virus spread in three temporally distinct waves between 2009 and 2011. Phylogenetic analysis of complete viral genomes showed that mutations accumulated over time. Second- and third-wave viruses replicated more rapidly in human airway epithelial (HAE) cells than did the first-wave virus. In infected mice, weight loss varied between viral isolates from the same wave but showed no distinct pattern with wave and did not correlate with viral load in the mouse lungs or severity of disease in the human donor. However, second- and third-wave viruses induced less alpha interferon in the infected mouse lungs. NS1 protein, an interferon antagonist, had accumulated several mutations in second- and third-wave viruses. Recombinant viruses with the third-wave NS gene induced less interferon in human cells, but this alone did not account for increased virus fitness in HAE cells. Mutations in HA and NA genes in third-wave viruses caused increased binding to α-2,6-sialic acid and enhanced infectivity in human mucus. A recombinant virus with these two segments replicated more efficiently in HAE cells. A mutation in PA (N321K) enhanced polymerase activity of third-wave viruses and also provided a replicative advantage in HAE cells. Therefore, multiple mutations allowed incremental changes in viral fitness, which together may have contributed to the apparent increase in severity of A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus during successive waves.IMPORTANCE Although most people infected with the 2009 pandemic influenza virus had mild or unapparent symptoms, some suffered severe and devastating disease. The reasons for this variability were unknown, but the numbers of severe cases increased during successive waves of human infection in the United Kingdom. To determine the causes of this variation, we studied genetic changes in virus isolates from individual hospitalized patients. There were no consistent differences between these viruses and those circulating in the community, but we found multiple evolutionary changes that in combination over time increased the virus's ability to infect human cells. These adaptations may explain the remarkable ability of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus to continue to circulate despite widespread immunity and the apparent increase in severity of influenza over successive waves of infection.

In each influenza season, a distinct group of young, otherwise healthy individuals with no risk factors succumbs to life-threatening infection. To better understand the cause for this, we analyzed a broad range of immune responses in blood from a unique cohort of patients, comprising previously healthy individuals hospitalized with and without respiratory failure during one influenza season, and infected with one specific influenza A strain. This analysis was compared with similarly hospitalized influenza patients with known risk factors (total of n = 60 patients recruited). We found a sustained increase in a specific subset of proinflammatory monocytes, with high TNF-α expression and an M1-like phenotype (independent of viral titers), in these previously healthy patients with severe disease. The relationship between M1-like monocytes and immunopathology was strengthened using murine models of influenza, in which severe infection generated using different models (including the high-pathogenicity H5N1 strain) was also accompanied by high levels of circulating M1-like monocytes. Additionally, a raised M1/M2 macrophage ratio in the lungs was observed. These studies identify a specific subtype of monocytes as a modifiable immunological determinant of disease severity in this subgroup of severely ill, previously healthy patients, offering potential novel therapeutic avenues.

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Influenza viruses cause annual seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. It is important to elucidate the stringency of bottlenecks during transmission to shed light on mechanisms that underlie the evolution and propagation of antigenic drift, host range switching or drug resistance. The virus spreads between people by different routes, including through the air in droplets and aerosols, and by direct contact. By housing ferrets under different conditions, it is possible to mimic various routes of transmission. Here, we inoculated donor animals with a mixture of two viruses whose genomes differed by one or two reverse engineered synonymous mutations, and measured the transmission of the mixture to exposed sentinel animals. Transmission through the air imposed a tight bottleneck since most recipient animals became infected by only one virus. In contrast, a direct contact transmission chain propagated a mixture of viruses suggesting the dose transferred by this route was higher. From animals with a mixed infection of viruses that were resistant and sensitive to the antiviral drug oseltamivir, resistance was propagated through contact transmission but not by air. These data imply that transmission events with a looser bottleneck can propagate minority variants and may be an important route for influenza evolution.

Influenza virus infection is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The surface antigens of influenza virus change over time blunting both naturally acquired and vaccine induced adaptive immune protection. Viral antigenic drift is a major contributing factor to both the spread and disease burden of influenza. The aim of this study was to develop better infection models using clinically relevant, influenza strains to test vaccine induced protection. CB6F1 mice were infected with a range of influenza viruses and disease, inflammation, cell influx, and viral load were characterized after infection. Infection with circulating H1N1 and representative influenza B viruses induced a dose-dependent disease response; however, a recent seasonal H3N2 virus did not cause any disease in mice, even at high titers. Viral infection led to recoverable virus, detectable both by plaque assay and RNA quantification after infection, and increased upper airway inflammation on day 7 after infection comprised largely of CD8 T cells. Having established seasonal infection models, mice were immunized with seasonal inactivated vaccine and responses were compared to matched and mismatched challenge strains. While the H1N1 subtype strain recommended for vaccine use has remained constant in the seven seasons between 2010 and 2016, the circulating strain of H1N1 influenza (2009 pandemic subtype) has drifted both genetically and antigenically since 2009. To investigate the effect of this observed drift on vaccine induced protection, mice were immunized with antigens from A/California/7/2009 (H1N1) and challenged with H1N1 subtype viruses recovered from 2009, 2010, or 2015. Vaccination with A/California/7/2009 antigens protected against infection with either the 2009 or 2010 strains, but was less effective against the 2015 strain. This observed reduction in protection suggests that mouse models of influenza virus vaccination and infection can be used as an additional tool to predict vaccine efficacy against drift strains.

The transmissibility and pandemic potential of influenza viruses depends on their ability to efficiently replicate and be released from an infected host, retain viability as they pass through the environment, and then initiate infection in the next host. There is a significant gap in knowledge about viral properties that enable survival of influenza viruses between hosts, due to a lack of experimental methods to reliably isolate viable virus from the air. Using a novel technique, we isolate and characterise infectious virus from droplets emitted by 2009 pandemic H1N1-infected ferrets. We demonstrate that infectious virus is predominantly released early after infection. A virus containing a mutation destabilising the haemagglutinin (HA) surface protein displayed reduced survival in air. Infectious virus recovered from droplets exhaled by ferrets inoculated with this virus contained mutations that conferred restabilisation of HA, indicating the importance of influenza HA stability for betweenhost survival. Using this unique approach can improve knowledge about the determinants and mechanisms of influenza transmissibility and ultimately could be applied to studies of airborne virus exhaled from infected people.

Following the emergence and global spread of a novel H1N1 influenza virus in 2009, two A(H1N1)pdm/09 influenza vaccines produced from the A/California/07/09 H1N1 strain were selected and used for the national immunisation programme in the United Kingdom: an adjuvanted split virion vaccine and a non-adjuvanted whole virion vaccine. In this study, we assessed the immune responses generated in inbred large white pigs (Babraham line) following vaccination with these vaccines and after challenge with A(H1N1)pdm/09 virus three months post-vaccination. Both vaccines elicited strong antibody responses, which included high levels of influenza-specific IgG1 and haemagglutination inhibition titres to H1 virus. Immunisation with the adjuvanted split vaccine induced significantly higher interferon gamma production, increased frequency of interferon gamma-producing cells and proliferation of CD4 − CD8 + (cytotoxic) and CD4 + CD8 + (helper) T cells, after in vitro re-stimulation. Despite significant differences in the magnitude and breadth of immune responses in the two vaccinated and mock treated groups, similar quantities of viral RNA were detected from the nasal cavity in all pigs after live virus challenge. The present study provides support for the use of the pig as a valid experimental model for influenza infections in humans, including the assessment of protective efficacy of therapeutic interventions.