No abstract

Study of this outbreak of primary pneumonic tularemia implicates lawn mowing and brush cutting as risk factors for this infection.

Abstract. The relationships between climatic variables and the frequency of human plague cases were modeled by Poisson regression for two adjoining regions in northeastern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. Model outputs closely agreed with the numbers of cases actually observed, suggesting that temporal variations in plague risk can be estimated by monitoring key climatic variables, most notably maximum daily summer temperature values and time-lagged (1 and 2 year) amounts of late winter (February-March) precipitation. Significant effects also were observed for time-lagged (1 year) summer precipitation in the Arizona model. Increased precipitation during specific periods resulted in increased numbers of expected cases in both regions, as did the number of days above certain lower thresholds for maximum daily summer temperatures (80ЊF in New Mexico and 85ЊF in Arizona). The number of days above certain high-threshold temperatures exerted a strongly negative influence on the numbers of expected cases in both the Arizona and New Mexico models (95ЊF and 90ЊF, respectively). The climatic variables found to be important in our models are those that would be expected to influence strongly the population dynamics of the rodent hosts and flea vectors of plague.

No abstract

In recent decades, the majority of human plague cases (caused by Yersinia pestis) have been reported from Africa. In northwest Uganda, which has had recent plague outbreaks, cat fleas (Ctenocephalides felis) have been reported as the most common fleas in the home environment, which is suspected to be a major exposure site for human plague in this country. In the past, C. felis has been viewed as only a nuisance-biting insect because limited laboratory studies suggested it is incapable of transmitting Y. pestis or is an inefficient vector. Our laboratory study shows that C. felis is a competent vector of plague bacteria, but that efficiency is low compared with another flea species collected in the same area: the oriental rat flea, Xenopsylla cheopis. On the other hand, despite its low vector efficiency, C. felis is the most common flea in human habitations in a plague-endemic region of Uganda (Arua and Nebbi Districts), and occasionally infests potential rodent reservoirs of Y. pestis such as the roof rat (Rattus rattus) or the Nile rat (Arvicanthis niloticus). Plague control programs in this region should remain focused on reducing rat flea populations, although our findings imply that cat fleas should not be ignored by these programs as they could play a significant role as secondary vectors.

Abstract. Plague, a life-threatening flea-borne zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis , has most commonly been reported from eastern Africa and Madagascar in recent decades. In these regions and elsewhere, prevention and control efforts are typically targeted at fine spatial scales, yet risk maps for the disease are often presented at coarse spatial resolutions that are of limited value in allocating scarce prevention and control resources. In our study, we sought to identify sub-village level remotely sensed correlates of elevated risk of human exposure to plague bacteria and to project the model across the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda and into neighboring regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Our model yielded an overall accuracy of 81%, with sensitivities and specificities of 89% and 71%, respectively. Risk was higher above 1,300 meters than below, and the remotely sensed covariates that were included in the model implied that localities that are wetter, with less vegetative growth and more bare soil during the dry month of January (when agricultural plots are typically fallow) pose an increased risk of plague case occurrence. Our results suggest that environmental and landscape features play a large part in classifying an area as ecologically conducive to plague activity. However, it is clear that future studies aimed at identifying behavioral and fine-scale ecological risk factors in the West Nile region are required to fully assess the risk of human exposure to Y. pestis .

Abstract. In Uganda, the West Nile region is the primary epidemiologic focus for plague. The aims of this study were to 1) describe flea-host associations within a plague-endemic region of Uganda, 2) compare flea loads between villages with or without a history of reported human plague cases and between sampling periods, and 3) determine vector loads on small mammal hosts in domestic, peridomestic, and sylvatic settings. We report that the roof rat, Rattus rattus , is the most common rodent collected in human dwellings in each of the 10 villages within the two districts sampled. These rats were commonly infested with efficient Y. pestis vectors, Xenopsylla cheopis and X. brasiliensis in Arua and Nebbi districts, respectively. In peridomestic and sylvatic areas in both districts, the Nile rat, Arvicanthus niloticus , was the most abundant rodent and hosted the highest diversity of flea species. When significant temporal differences in flea loads were detected, they were typically lower during the dry month of January. We did not detect any significant differences in small mammal abundance or flea loads between villages with our without a history of human plague, indicating that conditions during inter-epizootic periods are similar between these areas. Future studies are needed to determine whether flea abundance or species composition changes during epizootics when humans are most at risk of exposure.

The West Nile region of Uganda represents an epidemiologic focus for human plague in east Africa. However, limited capacity for diagnostic laboratory testing means few clinically diagnosed cases are confirmed and the true burden of disease is undetermined. The aims of the study were 1) describe the spatial distribution of clinical plague cases in the region, 2) identify ecologic correlates of incidence, and 3) incorporate these variables into predictive models that define areas of plague risk. The model explained 74% of the incidence variation and revealed that cases were more common above 1,300 m than below. Remotely-sensed variables associated with differences in soil or vegetation were also identified as incidence predictors. The study demonstrated that plague incidence can be modeled at parish-level scale based on environmental variables and identified parishes where cases may be under-reported and enhanced surveillance and preventative measures may be implemented to decrease the burden of plague.