Modeling relationships between climate and the frequency of human plague cases in the southwestern United States, 1960-1997.

Enscore, Russell E.; Biggerstaff, Brad J.; Brown, Ted; Fulgham, Ralph E; Reynolds, Pamela J.; Engelthaler, David M.; Levy, Craig; Parmenter, Robert; Montenieri, John A.; Cheek, James E.; Grinnell, Richie K; Ettestad, Paul; Gage, Kenneth L.

doi:10.4269/ajtmh.2002.66.186

Cited by 155 publications

(170 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Our findings corroborate those of other studies on temporal associations with human plague incidence [18][19][20] . Parmenter et al 21 found that the cyclical pattern of the annual distribution of plague cases in New Mexico (USA) was associated with fluctuations in the rodent population or in the rodents' responses to environmental variations such as food and shelter availability.…”

Section: Yearsupporting

confidence: 83%

Seroprevalence and spatial distribution dynamics of Yersinia pestis antibodies in dogs and cats from plague foci in the State of Ceará, Northeastern Brazil

Sousa

Alencar

Almeida

et al. 2017

Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop.

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Introduction:In Brazil, the plague is established in several foci located mainly in the northeastern part of the country, where it alternates between active and quiescent periods. These foci in the State of Ceará have high epidemiological importance. In addition to other plague detection activities, plague areas can be monitored through serological surveys of dogs and cats (domestic carnivores), which, following feeding on plague-infected rodents, can develop mild to severe forms of the disease and produce long-lasting antibodies. This study aimed to characterize the circulation dynamics and spatial distribution of Yersinia pestis antibodies in dogs and cats in plague foci areas of Ceará. Methods: An ecological study was conducted to analyze the temporal series and spatial distribution of secondary data obtained from domestic carnivore serum surveillance in Ceará's plague areas from 1990 to 2014. Results: Joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend was a reduction in antibody-positive animals. The mean proportion of antibody-positivity during the whole study period was 1.5% (3,023/203,311) for dogs, and 0.7% (426/61,135) for cats, with more than 4% antibody-positivity in dogs in 1997 and 2002. Antibody titers ranging from 1/16 to 1/64 were frequent. Despite fluctuations and a significant reduction, in recent years, there were antibody-positive animals annually throughout the study period, and the localities containing antibody-positive animals increased in number. Conclusion: Yersinia pestis is actively circulating in the study areas, posing a danger to the human population.

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Section: Yearsupporting

confidence: 83%

Seroprevalence and spatial distribution dynamics of Yersinia pestis antibodies in dogs and cats from plague foci in the State of Ceará, Northeastern Brazil

Sousa

Alencar

Almeida

et al. 2017

Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop.

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“…In situations where flea loads differed among time periods, they generally increased during the months of early rains or agricultural harvest periods from March through August as the plague season approached. These changes could be driven by climate, as has been suggested for plague activity in this and other geographic regions, 8,[41][42][43][44] and could prime vector-host communities for plague epizootics, if the pathogen is introduced. The onset of heavy rains in late August, which marks the start of the plague season, could drive rats into human dwellings, which may increase the likelihood of human exposure to infected rats or their fleas.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flea Diversity and Infestation Prevalence on Rodents in a Plague-Endemic Region of Uganda

Amatre¹,

Babi²,

Enscore³

et al. 2009

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. In Uganda, the West Nile region is the primary epidemiologic focus for plague. The aims of this study were to 1) describe flea-host associations within a plague-endemic region of Uganda, 2) compare flea loads between villages with or without a history of reported human plague cases and between sampling periods, and 3) determine vector loads on small mammal hosts in domestic, peridomestic, and sylvatic settings. We report that the roof rat, Rattus rattus , is the most common rodent collected in human dwellings in each of the 10 villages within the two districts sampled. These rats were commonly infested with efficient Y. pestis vectors, Xenopsylla cheopis and X. brasiliensis in Arua and Nebbi districts, respectively. In peridomestic and sylvatic areas in both districts, the Nile rat, Arvicanthus niloticus , was the most abundant rodent and hosted the highest diversity of flea species. When significant temporal differences in flea loads were detected, they were typically lower during the dry month of January. We did not detect any significant differences in small mammal abundance or flea loads between villages with our without a history of human plague, indicating that conditions during inter-epizootic periods are similar between these areas. Future studies are needed to determine whether flea abundance or species composition changes during epizootics when humans are most at risk of exposure.

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“…Nonetheless, we believe such an association with agricultural intensity and plague case occurrence is biologically plausible. According to a trophic cascade hypothesis, [35][36][37] areas with increased primary production of food crops may increase the carrying capacity of rodents. Several quantitative models have demonstrated that the probability of plague epizootics, which represent periods when humans are at greatest risk for exposure to infectious fleas, 38 is dependent on reaching critical thresholds of key rodent hosts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Human Risk of Exposure to Plague Bacteria in Northwestern Uganda Based on Remotely Sensed Predictors

Eisen¹,

Griffith²,

Borchert³

et al. 2010

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. Plague, a life-threatening flea-borne zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis , has most commonly been reported from eastern Africa and Madagascar in recent decades. In these regions and elsewhere, prevention and control efforts are typically targeted at fine spatial scales, yet risk maps for the disease are often presented at coarse spatial resolutions that are of limited value in allocating scarce prevention and control resources. In our study, we sought to identify sub-village level remotely sensed correlates of elevated risk of human exposure to plague bacteria and to project the model across the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda and into neighboring regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Our model yielded an overall accuracy of 81%, with sensitivities and specificities of 89% and 71%, respectively. Risk was higher above 1,300 meters than below, and the remotely sensed covariates that were included in the model implied that localities that are wetter, with less vegetative growth and more bare soil during the dry month of January (when agricultural plots are typically fallow) pose an increased risk of plague case occurrence. Our results suggest that environmental and landscape features play a large part in classifying an area as ecologically conducive to plague activity. However, it is clear that future studies aimed at identifying behavioral and fine-scale ecological risk factors in the West Nile region are required to fully assess the risk of human exposure to Y. pestis .

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Modeling relationships between climate and the frequency of human plague cases in the southwestern United States, 1960-1997.

Cited by 155 publications

References 52 publications

Seroprevalence and spatial distribution dynamics of Yersinia pestis antibodies in dogs and cats from plague foci in the State of Ceará, Northeastern Brazil

Seroprevalence and spatial distribution dynamics of Yersinia pestis antibodies in dogs and cats from plague foci in the State of Ceará, Northeastern Brazil

Flea Diversity and Infestation Prevalence on Rodents in a Plague-Endemic Region of Uganda

Assessing Human Risk of Exposure to Plague Bacteria in Northwestern Uganda Based on Remotely Sensed Predictors

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