Managing and evaluating the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises is one of the most complex and relevant problems of the economy and management. In the context of Ukraine’s integration into the international space, there is an arising issue of assessing the bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises that meets international financial standards and allows administering this process. A qualitative assessment of the bankruptcy of an enterprise is possible only using artificial intelligence methods – the fuzzy sets method, which allows including qualitative and quantitative indicators to the model for assessing bankruptcy of enterprises in Ukraine. The aim of the article is to improve the existing method for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises on the basis of the fuzzy sets method, which will include indicators of international financial reporting and allow more efficient administration and management of this process. The subject of the research is the process of formalizing the method of the enterprise bankruptcy assessment in accordance with the indicators of International Financial Reporting Standards. The study offers a mechanism for a comprehensive assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises with the use of the methods of fuzzy sets, which is based on international financial indicators: current ratio, payable turnover ratio, equity turnover ratio, return on assets, equity-to-debt ratio. The mechanism allows quickly managing bankruptcy conditions. In order to administer the economic activity of the bankrupt enterprises, based on the theory of a fuzzy sets, a system of enterprises management takes into account the international financial reporting.
The processes of integration of Ukraine into the European Economic Community, the presence of powerful competitors in the European markets encourage the formation of a set of measures with the distinction of tools to ensure the competitiveness of the agro-industrial complex of the state. The necessity of ensuring the competitiveness of Ukraine's agro-industrial complex on the basis of determining the competitive advantages dictate the urgency of scientific search for new methods, forms, tools for its enhancement, which will further promote the market relations in Ukraine and will have a direct impact on the wellbeing of the population. The aim of the work is to develop an innovative economic-mathematical model for assessing and forecasting the grade of competitiveness of the agricultural sector of Ukraine based on fuzzy sets, which will allow acceleration of the process of Ukraine integration into the European market. The object of the research is the process of ensuring the competitiveness of the Ukrainian agricultural sector. The subject of the research is methodological aspects of economic and mathematical modeling of the competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine. The methodology of the study is based on the principles and mathematical provisions of fuzzy sets, which allows to use both qualitative and quantitative indicators of influence on the process under study. As a result of the research, based on fuzzy set theory, which allows taking into account both quantitative and qualitative factors of influence on the level of competitiveness, an innovative economic-mathematical model of valuation and forecasting of the grade of competitiveness of the agricultural sector of Ukraine has been developed. The classification of factors influencing the level of agrarian industry competitiveness has been formed. The forecast of the grade of competitiveness of the agricultural sector of Ukraine in 2025 has been made, which will allow formulating a strategy of development of the agricultural sector of Ukraine.
In this article, an updated approach to investigate the effects of demographic factors on economic growth is proposed. The initial hypothesis was that these factors significantly affected production proportions, determining development vectors. The predictable shifts in production dynamics are considered for the institutional framework. The article investigates the statistically significant relationships between the demographic variables and economic growth for the sample of the OECD countries (excluding Columbia) and Armenia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Romania, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine, from 1990 to 2017; unbalanced panel data was used. The investigation aimed to highlight the intrinsic interconnection between the changes in demographic variables (e.g., the working‑age population growth rate and the average life expectancy growth rate) and economic growth. Our investigation focused on the issue of whether demographic influence on economics was the same for advanced and developing countries in the sample. Over the period, a significant increase in life expectancy adversely affected the real GDP per capita growth rate. However, the empirical study pointed out that life expectancy was strongly linked to nominal GDP per capita. In advanced countries, the demographic indicator was considerably higher than in emerging markets. We found that the rise in the working‑age stratum of the nation’s population radically reduced the output dynamics as well, but that interconnection was not robust. The institutional framework should be taken into account in order to achieve a favorable performance of public governance in the long‑run. The main demographic variables should be properly forecasted and calibrated for potential endogenous economic triggers. Both public and private investments are important when considering the economic growth rates that are achieved. We propose a balanced approach to macroeconomic policy regarding both demographic and institutional determinants.
Investment plays a very important role in the economy, ensures its sustainable growth, contributes to the improvement of the living standards of the population. The most common mistake of planning investment projects is the insufficient development of risks that may affect the profitability of projects. The purpose of the paper is the formalizing the normal distribution for investment project evaluation using the Monte Carlo method. Such formalizing should allow to present normal distribution in a form that is understandable for nonspecialists in mathematical statistics. A user can easily calculate the standard deviation value and determine the limits of the confidence interval and the range of deviation from the mean value. Such mistakes can lead to incorrect investment decisions and significant losses. The desire to minimize risk requires developing a risk model. One of the risk assessment tools is the Monte Carlo method, which combines and develops both methods of sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. In the Monte Carlo method, risk analysis is performed using models of possible outcomes where any factor that is characterized by uncertainty is replaced by a probability distribution. Some types of distributions such as normal distribution is used less frequently, because their use requires special knowledge in the field of mathematics. In this paper, the aim is to formalize the normal distribution for use of non-specialists in mathematical statistics. Object of study is the risk assessment of investment projects. Subject of study is the normal distribution formalization for investment project evaluation. As the result the formulas for investment project variables and the form for normal distribution formalization in MS Excel are proposed. The empirical result is an experiment, which identify a pseudo-random numbers sequence as normally distributed. It facilitates the work of an expert and allows him to use the normal distribution variables correctly. JEL classification:C12, C53, E22
Ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic is not only health crisis but the economic challenge. The future of society depends on how successfully the authorities find a balance between imposition of stringent restrictions and economic development. Tax policies play a role in reducing losses caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. All countries are taking tax measures to mitigate the impact of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on society. While the COVID-19 pandemic has not yet been defeated, it is too early to draw conclusions about which tax measures against the effects of COVID-19 are efficient. On the other hand, correct trajectory of economic recovery can be missed if not to analyze the other countries experience. The object of this study is tax measures in the European countries against the effects of COVID-19. The subject of the study is the fuzzy set theory to assess the efficiency of tax measures in the European countries against the effects of COVID-19. The aim of the study is to find out which European countries have been more succeeded in tax measures implementing and type of their immediate crisis response. The analysis is carried out in 29 European countries. The result of the study allows to state that the number of tax measures against the effects of COVID-19 does not affect their efficiency and the most popular type of immediate crisis response has been the business cash-flow enhances.
Қазақстан Республикасы Ұлттық ғылым академиясы "ҚР ҰҒА Хабаршысы" ғылыми журналының Web of Science-тің жаңаланған нұсқасы Emerging Sources Citation Index-те индекстелуге қабылданғанын хабарлайды. Бұл индекстелу барысында Clarivate Analytics компаниясы журналды одан əрі the Science Citation Index Expanded, the Social Sciences Citation Index жəне the Arts & Humanities Citation Index-ке қабылдау мəселесін қарастыруда. Web of Science зерттеушілер, авторлар, баспашылар мен мекемелерге контент тереңдігі мен сапасын ұсынады. ҚР ҰҒА Хабаршысының Emerging Sources Citation Index-ке енуі біздің қоғамдастық үшін ең өзекті жəне беделді мультидисциплинарлы контентке адалдығымызды білдіреді. НАН РК сообщает, что научный журнал «Вестник НАН РК» был принят для индексирования в Emerging Sources CitationIndex, обновленной версии Web of Science. Содержание в этом индексировании находится в стадии рассмотрения компанией Clarivate Analytics для дальнейшего принятия журнала в the Science Citation Index Expanded, the Social Sciences Citation Index и the Arts & Humanities Citation Index. Web of Science предлагает качество и глубину контента для исследователей, авторов, издателей и учреждений. Включение Вестника НАН РК в Emerging Sources Citation Index демонстрирует нашу приверженность к наиболее актуальному и влиятельному мультидисциплинарному контенту для нашего сообщества.
Growing role of potato farming in food security system of the country needs attracting the new investment in preserving and process restructuring of the sector, at scientifically proven approach to defining the optimal scope of potato production, processing, and storage – to avoid the extra stocks, unnecessary losses, and inefficient investment resources at any stage of agri-food chain. Purpose of the study is to justify the conceptual model of investing in development of Ukrainian potato sector, based on calculated optimal structure of balance between potato production and consumption, as well as the effective combination of fresh and processed products, to ensure competitive parameters of potato market in actual market environment. Object of the study is forming and increasing the added value in agri-food chain, due to optimal parameters of balance between potato production and consumption. The study methodology is based on system analysis laws, which allow justifying the competitive parameters of Ukrainian potato sector in varying economic space, thus reducing the unnecessary loss in “producing-processing-transporting-sale-consumption” chain. Use of developed optimization model for potato production/consumption balance, by minimizing the potato residues at the end of year, revealed the extra stock (2.4 million tons) in early 2020, which was unbalanced with consumer demand. Due to inefficient distribution of gross potato yield in Ukraine, conclusion was made on need to reduce investment in overproduction (17.5%) and direct the major investment flows in potato processing industry, increase the export potential, and expand the foreign market boundaries for Ukrainian potato products, semi-finished and fresh products, at ensuring the relevant quality. In this view, authors proposed a conceptual investment model for potato sector of Ukraine, based on optimal balance of potato production and consumption till 2027, which ensures achieving the strategic result in terms of global competition.
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