At the end of 2019, the new virus called Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread widely from China all over the world (including Europe). Most countries in Europe at the beginning of 2020 have been quarantined. The aim of the work is to develop the system dynamics model for assessing the impact of the different factors on the COVID-19 death rate in Europe. There were tested three hypotheses about factors of reducing the COVID-19 death rate with the help of linear regression analysis. The density of the population of European countries doesn’t affect the COVID-19 death rate. Also, COVID-19 death rate does not drastically affect mortality statistics. But the level of country’s economic development is a factor of COVID-19 death rate because in high developed countries the pandemic death rate is lower, regardless of the mechanisms of the spread of the disease and its impact on human health.
Investment plays a very important role in the economy, ensures its sustainable growth, contributes to the improvement of the living standards of the population. The most common mistake of planning investment projects is the insufficient development of risks that may affect the profitability of projects. The purpose of the paper is the formalizing the normal distribution for investment project evaluation using the Monte Carlo method. Such formalizing should allow to present normal distribution in a form that is understandable for nonspecialists in mathematical statistics. A user can easily calculate the standard deviation value and determine the limits of the confidence interval and the range of deviation from the mean value. Such mistakes can lead to incorrect investment decisions and significant losses. The desire to minimize risk requires developing a risk model. One of the risk assessment tools is the Monte Carlo method, which combines and develops both methods of sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. In the Monte Carlo method, risk analysis is performed using models of possible outcomes where any factor that is characterized by uncertainty is replaced by a probability distribution. Some types of distributions such as normal distribution is used less frequently, because their use requires special knowledge in the field of mathematics. In this paper, the aim is to formalize the normal distribution for use of non-specialists in mathematical statistics. Object of study is the risk assessment of investment projects. Subject of study is the normal distribution formalization for investment project evaluation. As the result the formulas for investment project variables and the form for normal distribution formalization in MS Excel are proposed. The empirical result is an experiment, which identify a pseudo-random numbers sequence as normally distributed. It facilitates the work of an expert and allows him to use the normal distribution variables correctly. JEL classification:C12, C53, E22
Ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic is not only health crisis but the economic challenge. The future of society depends on how successfully the authorities find a balance between imposition of stringent restrictions and economic development. Tax policies play a role in reducing losses caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. All countries are taking tax measures to mitigate the impact of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on society. While the COVID-19 pandemic has not yet been defeated, it is too early to draw conclusions about which tax measures against the effects of COVID-19 are efficient. On the other hand, correct trajectory of economic recovery can be missed if not to analyze the other countries experience. The object of this study is tax measures in the European countries against the effects of COVID-19. The subject of the study is the fuzzy set theory to assess the efficiency of tax measures in the European countries against the effects of COVID-19. The aim of the study is to find out which European countries have been more succeeded in tax measures implementing and type of their immediate crisis response. The analysis is carried out in 29 European countries. The result of the study allows to state that the number of tax measures against the effects of COVID-19 does not affect their efficiency and the most popular type of immediate crisis response has been the business cash-flow enhances.
The Covid-19 spread has become a major challenge for humanity in the last decade. It was believed that the Covid-19 vaccine development would have to end the pandemic. On the contrary, society has faced a new challenge which is that there are both countries that cannot afford to purchase the Covid-19 vaccine and inhabitants who do not trust new vaccine. Without adequate Covid-19 vaccination level, the global pandemic is not going to end. The object of this study is factors affecting the vaccination Covid-19 in European countries. The subject of the study is the statistical analysis methods to compare and assess of factors affecting the vaccination Covid-19 in European countries. The aim of the study is to find out which concerns about vaccination are more important and have an impact on the Covid-19 vaccination level in European countries. It is examined six factors; three of them relate to the government vaccine administration, the other three are about a public opinion on Covid-19 vaccination. The analysis is carried out in 22 European countries. The result of the study allows to state that public opinions factors are more important in pandemic and have more impact on the vaccination rate.
The article explores the specifics of budget management in higher education institutions (HEIs) along with providing a rationale for the need to upgrade financial and economic models. It is observed that the methodology of HEI budget planning has not undergone significant changes over the past decade, whereas the modern realia challenge Ukrainian universities to operate more effectively in a competitive and dynamic environment. Adapting approaches to financial and business performance management under risk and uncertainty to the specifics of HEI activities, the study offers a relevant management framework that assumes certain stages. The article also presents the author’s understanding of the financial and economic model of HEI development which involves simulation of actual economic processes in HEIs in the form of mathematical relationships between components that are exposed and not exposed to the influence of university top management. The findings present a list of core components of the financial and economic model of HEI development under risk and uncertainty, visualizing the logic of model construction against the specified components and tasks it addresses. In the context of this study, the components of the financial and economic model of HEI development are the indicators of HEI development affected by internal policy, risk factors that may transform subject to different scenarios, and financial performance indicators that render ripple effects of management decisions in different scenarios. For each of the model’s components, mathematical relationships are provided to estimate revenues from educational services, R&D and other types of income, including entrepreneurial activities. To simulate different scenario conditions, it is recommended to use sensitivity analysis or the Monte Carlo method. The benefits of the financial and economic model of HEI development under risk and uncertainty are specified as well as software products that can be used for its practical implementation are presented. The proposed model is a ready to use tool that can be applied in practical settings using MS Excel.
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