Effectiveness evaluation of LEO satellite communication system can not only guide the optimization of constellation program,but also play an important role in the stage of system design. In order to ensure the accuracy of the evaluation results, it is necessary to consider the impact of uncertain information on effectiveness evaluation, whether it is due to poor information or complex system.In order to solve this problem, this paper introduces birth and death process into satellite communication system.Firstly, according to the limit distribution of grey birth and death process with continuous time and limited state, we establish the availability model of the system.Then, the Kolmogorov forward equation is used to characterize the dependability of the system during operation.After that, a capability evaluation index system based on ''four domains'' is constructed. The attribute values of the index are unified into generalized standard interval grey numbers, and the weight allocation model of GSIGN-AHP-ME is established.The system capability is calculated according to the full probability formula.Subsequently,taking constellation X as an example, the system effectiveness is obtained by using the G-BDP-ADC model constructed in this paper.Finally, by comparing with the fuzzy evaluation method, it shows that the G-BDP-ADC model constructed in this paper is better than the fuzzy evaluation method, and can describe the LEO satellite communication system in the context of poor information more appropriately.INDEX TERMS Poor information, grey birth and death process, G-BDP-ADC model, effectiveness evaluation, generalized standard interval grey number, GSIGN-AHP-ME weight allocation model.
PurposeDuring the service period of communication satellite systems, their performance is often degraded due to the depletion mechanism. In this paper, the grey system theory is applied to the multi-state system effectiveness evaluation and the grey Lz-transformation ADC (availability, dependability and capability) effectiveness evaluation model is constructed to address the characteristics of the communication satellite system such as different constituent subsystems, numerous states and the inaccuracy and insufficiency of data.Design/methodology/approachThe model is based on the ADC effectiveness evaluation method, combined with the Lz transformation and uses the definite weighted function of the three-parameter interval grey number as a bridge to incorporate the possibility of system performance being greater than the task demand into the effectiveness solution algorithm. At the same time, using MATLAB (Matrix laboratory) to solve each state probability, the same performance level in the Lz transform is combined. Then, the system effectiveness is obtained by Python.FindingsThe results show that the G-Lz-ADC model constructed in this paper can accurately evaluate the effectiveness of static/dynamic systems and certain/uncertain system and also has better applicability in evaluating the effectiveness of the multi-state complex system.Practical implicationsThe G-Lz-ADC effectiveness evaluation model constructed in this paper can effectively reduce the complexity of traditional effectiveness evaluation models by combining the same performance levels in the Lz-transform and solving the effectiveness of the system with the help of computer programming, providing a new method for the effectiveness evaluation of the complex MSS. At the same time, the weaknesses of the system can be identified, providing a theoretical basis for improving the system’s effectiveness.Originality/valueThe possibility solution method based on the definite weighted function comparing the two three-parameter interval grey numbers is constructed, which compensates for the traditional calculation of the probability based on numerical values and subjective preferences of decision-makers. Meanwhile, the effectiveness evaluation model integrates the basic theories of three-parameter interval grey number and its definite weighted function, Grey−Markov, grey universal generating function (GUGF), grey multi-state system (GMSS), etc., which is an innovative method to solve the effectiveness of a multi-state instantaneous communication satellite system.
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