Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution6, 7, but local air quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18. International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region14, 19, 20, 21, 22. The effects of international trade on air pollutant emissions23, air quality14 and health24 have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM2.5 pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM2.5 pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM2.5 pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport

International trade separates regions consuming goods and services from regions where goods and related aerosol pollution are produced. Yet the role of trade in aerosol climate forcing attributed to different regions has never been quantified. Here, we contrast the direct radiative forcing of aerosols related to regions’ consumption of goods and services against the forcing due to emissions produced in each region. Aerosols assessed include black carbon, primary organic aerosol, and secondary inorganic aerosols, including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium. We find that global aerosol radiative forcing due to emissions produced in East Asia is much stronger than the forcing related to goods and services ultimately consumed in that region because of its large net export of emissions-intensive goods. The opposite is true for net importers such as Western Europe and North America: global radiative forcing related to consumption is much greater than the forcing due to emissions produced in these regions. Overall, trade is associated with a shift of radiative forcing from net importing to net exporting regions. Compared to greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, the short atmospheric lifetimes of aerosols cause large localized differences between consumption- and production-related radiative forcing. International efforts to reduce emissions in the exporting countries will help alleviate trade-related climate and health impacts of aerosols while lowering global emissions

Abstract. Satellite retrieval of vertical column densities (VCDs) of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is critical for NOx pollution and impact evaluation. For regions with high aerosol loadings, the retrieval accuracy is greatly affected by whether aerosol optical effects are treated implicitly (as additional “effective” clouds) or explicitly, among other factors. Our previous POMINO algorithm explicitly accounts for aerosol effects to improve the retrieval, especially in polluted situations over China, by using aerosol information from GEOS-Chem simulations with further monthly constraints by MODIS/Aqua aerosol optical depth (AOD) data. Here we present a major algorithm update, POMINO v1.1, by constructing a monthly climatological dataset of aerosol extinction profiles, based on level 2 CALIOP/CALIPSO data over 2007–2015, to better constrain the modeled aerosol vertical profiles. We find that GEOS-Chem captures the month-to-month variation in CALIOP aerosol layer height (ALH) but with a systematic underestimate by about 300–600 m (season and location dependent), due to a too strong negative vertical gradient of extinction above 1 km. Correcting the model aerosol extinction profiles results in small changes in retrieved cloud fraction, increases in cloud-top pressure (within 2 %–6 % in most cases), and increases in tropospheric NO2 VCD by 4 %–16 % over China on a monthly basis in 2012. The improved NO2 VCDs (in POMINO v1.1) are more consistent with independent ground-based MAX-DOAS observations (R2=0.80, NMB = −3.4 %, for 162 pixels in 49 days) than POMINO (R2=0.80, NMB = −9.6 %), DOMINO v2 (R2=0.68, NMB = −2.1 %), and QA4ECV (R2=0.75, NMB = −22.0 %) are. Especially on haze days, R2 reaches 0.76 for POMINO v1.1, much higher than that for POMINO (0.68), DOMINO v2 (0.38), and QA4ECV (0.34). Furthermore, the increase in cloud pressure likely reveals a more realistic vertical relationship between cloud and aerosol layers, with aerosols situated above the clouds in certain months instead of always below the clouds. The POMINO v1.1 algorithm is a core step towards our next public release of the data product (POMINO v2), and it will also be applied to the recently launched S5P-TROPOMI sensor.

Abstract. China is facing a severe ozone problem, but the origin of its ozone remains unclear. Here we use a GEOS-Chem based global–regional two-way coupled model system to quantify the individual contributions of eight emission source regions worldwide to springtime ozone in 2008 over China. The model reproduces the observed ozone from 31 ground sites and various aircraft and ozonesonde measurements in China and nearby countries, with a mean bias of 10 %–15 % both near the surface and in the troposphere. We then combine zero-out simulations, tagged ozone simulations, and a linear weighting approach to account for the effect of nonlinear chemistry on ozone source attribution. We find considerable contributions of total foreign anthropogenic emissions to surface ozone over China (2–11 ppb). For ozone of anthropogenic origin averaged over China, foreign regions together contribute 40 %–60 % below the height of 2 km and 85 % in the upper troposphere. For total ozone contributed by foreign anthropogenic emissions over China at various heights, the portion of transboundary ozone produced within foreign emission source regions is less than 50 %, with the rest produced by precursors transported out of those source regions. Japan and Korea contribute 0.6–2.1 ppb of surface ozone over the east coastal regions. Southeast Asia contributes 1–5 ppb over much of southern China and South Asia contributes up to 5–10 ppb of surface ozone over the border of southwestern China; and their contributions increase with height due to strong upwelling over the source regions. The European contribution reaches 2.1–3.0 ppb for surface ozone over the northern border of China and 1.5 ppb in the lower troposphere averaged over China. North America contributes 0.9–2.7 ppb of surface ozone over most of China (1.5–2.1 ppb over the North China Plain), with a China average at 1.5–2.5 ppb at different heights below 8 km, due to its large anthropogenic emissions and the transport-favorable midlatitude westerly wind. In addition to domestic emission control, global emission reduction is critical for China's ozone mitigation.

Abstract. Recent studies have shown that surface ozone (O3) concentrations over central eastern China (CEC) have increased significantly during the past decade. We quantified the effects of changes in meteorological conditions and O3 precursor emissions on surface O3 levels over CEC between July 2003 and July 2015 using the GEOS-Chem model. The simulated monthly mean maximum daily 8 h average O3 concentration (MDA8 O3) in July increased by approximately 13.6 %, from 65.5±7.9 ppbv (2003) to 74.4±8.7 ppbv (2015), comparable to the observed results. The change in meteorology led to an increase in MDA8 O3 of 5.8±3.9 ppbv over the central part of CEC, in contrast to a decrease of about -0.8±3.5 ppbv over the eastern part of the region. In comparison, the MDA8 O3 over the central and eastern parts of CEC increased by 3.5±1.4 and 5.6±1.8 ppbv due to the increased emissions. The increase in averaged O3 in the CEC region resulting from the emission increase (4.0±1.9 ppbv) was higher than that caused by meteorological changes (3.1±4.9 ppbv) relative to the 2003 standard simulation, while the regions with larger O3 increases showed a higher sensitivity to meteorological conditions than to emission changes. Sensitivity tests indicate that increased levels of anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) dominate the O3 increase over the eastern part of CEC, and anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) mainly increase MDA8 O3 over the central and western parts and decrease O3 in a few urban areas in the eastern part. Budget analysis showed that net photochemical production and meteorological conditions (transport in particular) are two important factors that influence O3 levels over the CEC. The results of this study suggest a need to further assess the effectiveness of control strategies for O3 pollution in the context of regional meteorology and anthropogenic emission changes.

China has enacted a number of ambitious pollution control policies to mitigate air pollution in urban areas. Unintended side effects of these policies to other environmental policy arenas and regions have largely been ignored. To bridge this gap, we use a multiregional input-output model in combination with an atmospheric chemical transport model to simulate clean air policy scenarios and evaluate their environmental impacts on primary PM2.5 and secondary precursor emissions, as well as CO2 emissions and water consumption, in the target region and spillover effects to other regions. Our results show that the reduction in primary PM2.5 and secondary precursor emissions in the target regions comes at the cost of increasing emissions especially in neighboring provinces. Similarly, co-benefits of lower CO2 emissions and reduced water consumption in the target region are achieved at the expense of higher impacts elsewhere, through outsourcing production to less developed regions in China.

In a globalized economy, production of goods can be disrupted by trade disputes. Yet the resulting impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) related premature mortality are unclear. Here we show that in contrast to a free trade world, with the emission intensity in each sector unchanged, an extremely anti-trade scenario with current tariffs plus an additional 25% tariff on each traded product would reduce the global export volume by 32.5%, gross domestic product by 9.0%, carbon dioxide by 6.3%, and PM2.5-related mortality by 4.1%. The respective impacts would be substantial for the United States, Western Europe and China. A freer trade scenario would increase global carbon dioxide emission and air pollution due to higher levels of production, especially in developing regions with relatively high emission intensities. Global collaborative actions to reduce emission intensities in developing regions could help achieve an economic-environmental win-win state through globalization.

Abstract. We present a new product with explicit aerosol corrections, POMINO-TROPOMI, for tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) vertical column densities (VCDs) over East Asia, based on the newly launched TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument with an unprecedented high horizontal resolution. Compared to the official TM5-MP-DOMINO (OFFLINE) product, POMINO-TROPOMI shows stronger concentration gradients near emission source locations and better agrees with MAX-DOAS measurements (R2=0.75; NMB=0.8 % versus R2=0.68, NMB=-41.9 %). Sensitivity tests suggest that implicit aerosol corrections, as in TM5-MP-DOMINO, lead to underestimations of NO2 columns by about 25 % over the polluted northern East China region. Reducing the horizontal resolution of a priori NO2 profiles would underestimate the retrieved NO2 columns over isolated city clusters in western China by 35 % but with overestimates of more than 50 % over many offshore coastal areas. The effect of a priori NO2 profiles is more important under calm conditions.