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A probabilistic cone penetration test (CPT) based liquefaction triggering procedure for cohesionless soils is derived using a maximum likelihood method with an updated case history database. The liquefaction analysis framework includes revised relationships for the magnitude scaling factor (MSF) and for estimating fines contents from CPT data when laboratory test data are not available. The updated case history database and methodology for developing the liquefaction correlation are described. Measurement and estimation uncertainties, the potential effects of false positives and false negatives in the case history database, and the effects of the choice-based sampling bias in the case history database are accounted for. Sensitivity analyses showed that the position of the most likely triggering curve and the magnitude of the total error term are reasonably well constrained by the data. The sensitivity study provides reasonable bounds on the effects of different interpretations, from which probabilistic and deterministic relationships for practice are recommended.

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The differences between the liquefaction triggering correlations published by Seed et al. (1984) and those published more recently by Cetin et al. (2004) and those by Idriss and Boulanger (2004 , 2008) are examined in this paper. The case histories, which cause the Cetin et al. correlation of the cyclic resistance ratio, adjusted for M = 7.5 and σ v′ = 1 atm, to plot significantly lower than those by Seed et al. and Idriss and Boulanger, are examined in detail. The lower position of the Cetin et al. liquefaction triggering correlation is found to be primarily caused by their interpretations and usage for 8 of the 11 key case histories that had controlled the position of their liquefaction triggering correlation. When properly interpreted, these eight case histories no longer support the position of the published Cetin et al. liquefaction triggering curve.

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