Deepening droughts and unprecedented wildfires are at the leading edge of climate change. Such events pose an emerging threat to species maladapted to these perturbations, with the potential for steeper declines than may be inferred from the gradual erosion of their climatic niche. This study focused on two species of amphibians—Philoria kundagungan and Philoria richmondensis (Limnodynastidae)—from the Gondwanan rainforests of eastern Australia that were extensively affected by the “Black Summer” megafires of 2019/2020 and the severe drought associated with them. We sought to assess the impact of these perturbations by quantifying the extent of habitat affected by fire, assessing patterns of occurrence and abundance of calling males post‐fire, and comparing post‐fire occurrence and abundance with that observed pre‐fire. Some 30% of potentially suitable habitat for P. kundagungan was fire affected, and 12% for P. richmondensis. Field surveys revealed persistence in some burnt rainforest; however, both species were detected at a higher proportion of unburnt sites. There was a clear negative effect of fire on the probability of site occupancy, abundance and the probability of persistence for P. kundagungan. For P. richmondensis, effects of fire were less evident due to the limited penetration of fire into core habitat; however, occupancy rates and abundance of calling males were depressed during the severe drought that prevailed just prior to the fires, with the reappearance of calling males linked to the degree of rehydration of breeding habitat post‐fire. Our results highlight the possibility that severe negative impacts of climate change for montane rainforest endemics may be felt much sooner than commonly anticipated under a scenario of gradual (decadal‐scale) changes in mean climatic conditions. Instead, the increased rate of severe stochastic events places these narrow range species at a heightened risk of extinction in the near‐term.

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Context. Invasive mammalian predators are a primary cause of extinctions, especially on islands. Baseline data on the impact of invasive mammalian predators are critical for deciding whether their eradication or control should be attempted, and for monitoring ecosystem changes over time if control does occur. Christmas Island is a tropical island with multiple invasive species, including two mammalian predators (black rats, Rattus rattus and feral cats, Felis catus). Black rats are known to prey upon island bird species (including their nests) elsewhere, but the severity of their impacts on Christmas Island birds is unclear. Describing these impacts would help managers decide whether rat control is warranted, especially as a cat eradication program underway on the island could conceivably result in increased rat density. Aims. In this study, we quantify the impacts of rats on Christmas Island bird abundance and nesting success. Methods. The abundance of four endemic forest bird species/subspecies (Christmas Island imperial pigeon, Ducula whartoni, emerald dove, Chalcophaps indica natalis, thrush, Turdus poliocephalus erythropleurus and white-eye, Zosterops natalis) was measured using transect surveys. Nest success was measured using remote sensing camera surveillance for one forest bird species (thrush) and one seabird species (red-tailed tropicbird, Phaethon rubicaudra westralis). We explored whether these measures were related to spatial variation in rat density and activity (measured by trapping and inkcards), the presence of other invasive species, habitat and seasonal variables. Key results. Neither rat density nor activity explained the abundance of any forest bird species. Instead, seasonal and habitat features were more consistent predictors of bird abundance. White-eyes were more abundant near yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) supercolonies. Nest success for thrushes and red-tailed tropicbirds was either not, or only very weakly, influenced by rats. Conclusions. Black rats currently have little effect on the population sizes and nesting success of Christmas Island birds. Implications. This study suggests that rat control is not currently a management priority, but ongoing monitoring of rat density, activity, and impacts is needed to ensure management can respond promptly if rat density or impacts change as cat control progresses towards eradication.

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