Statistical Language Models estimate the distribution of various natural language phenomena for the purpose of speech recognition and other language technologies. Since the first significant model was proposed in 1980, many attempts have been made to improve the state of the art. We review them here, point to a few promising directions, and argue for a Bayesian approach to integration of linguistic theories with data.

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Influenza infects an estimated 9–35 million individuals each year in the United States and is a contributing cause for between 12,000 and 56,000 deaths annually. Seasonal outbreaks of influenza are common in temperate regions of the world, with highest incidence typically occurring in colder and drier months of the year. Real-time forecasts of influenza transmission can inform public health response to outbreaks. We present the results of a multiinstitution collaborative effort to standardize the collection and evaluation of forecasting models for influenza in the United States for the 2010/2011 through 2016/2017 influenza seasons. For these seven seasons, we assembled weekly real-time forecasts of seven targets of public health interest from 22 different models. We compared forecast accuracy of each model relative to a historical baseline seasonal average. Across all regions of the United States, over half of the models showed consistently better performance than the historical baseline when forecasting incidence of influenza-like illness 1 wk, 2 wk, and 3 wk ahead of available data and when forecasting the timing and magnitude of the seasonal peak. In some regions, delays in data reporting were strongly and negatively associated with forecast accuracy. More timely reporting and an improved overall accessibility to novel and traditional data sources are needed to improve forecasting accuracy and its integration with real-time public health decision making.

Influenza A virus is characterized by high genetic diversity.1–3 However, most of what we know about influenza evolution has come from consensus sequences sampled at the epidemiological scale4 that only represent the dominant virus lineage within each infected host. Less is known about the extent of intra-host virus diversity and what proportion is transmitted between individuals.5 To characterize those virus variants that achieve sustainable transmission in new hosts, we examined intra-host virus genetic diversity within household donor/recipient pairs from the first wave of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic when seasonal H3N2 was co-circulating. While the same variants were found in multiple members of the community, the relative frequencies of variants fluctuated, with patterns of genetic variation more similar within than between households. We estimated the effective population size of influenza A virus across donor/recipient pairs to be approximately 100–200 contributing members, which enabled the transmission of multiple lineages including antigenic variants.

BackgroundEarly insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013–14 Unites States influenza season.MethodsChallenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013–2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013–March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet).ResultsNine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones.ConclusionForecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1669-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.