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A B S T R A C TUnderstanding the spatial distributions of multiple ecosystem services (ESs), their associations, and their underlying socio-ecological contributing factors is critical for ES management. Using the city belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia, northwestern China, as a case study, this study quantified the spatial distribution of six ESs (food production, carbon sequestration, carbon storage, nutrient retention, sand fixation and recreational opportunity), analyzed the synergy and trade-off relations among them through correlation analysis, classified ES bundles through a self-organizing map method (SOM), explored the impacts of socio-ecological factors on the ESs through Ordinary Least Square regression (OLS) and Geo-detector analysis, delineated socio-ecological clusters using the SOM, and characterized the relationship between ES bundles and driver clusters through overlap analysis. The results suggest that spatial associations among ESs can be predicted by their driving mechanisms. Synergy relations existed among crop production, carbon sequestration, carbon storage and nutrient retention, and these were impacted by similar driving mechanisms. Synergy also existed between sand fixation and recreational opportunity, but significant differences existed in their driving mechanisms. Trade-off relations were shown between ESs in these two groups at the whole region scale. Three bundles were detected among the six ESs: bundle 1, characterized by recreational opportunity of high supply and other services of limited supply, was located in the transitional region between the central plain and the fringe mountains, and mainly driven by climate and proximity factors; bundle 2, characterized by high sand fixation, medium carbon storage and limited other services, was located in the northwestern and southern mountains and driven by climate and geography factors; bundle 3, characterized by high food production, carbon sequestration, carbon storage and nutrient retention of medium supply and other two services of limited supply, was located in the central plain and driven by vegetation coverage and proximity factors. Human activities can partly overcome the limitations of ecological conditions, thus specific strategies for different regions are proposed to maintain and improve ESs under global climate change.

Modeling the impacts of urbanization on carbon storage has become a critical and hot topic in the fields of mitigating global warming. This study coupled urban expansion and land use change simulation and prediction model (SLEUTH‐3r model) and ecosystem service evaluation model (InVEST model) to analyze and predict the impacts of urbanization on carbon storage in Shizuishan, a city located in the northwestern of China. Scenarios analysis was used to compare the effects of different policies on carbon storage, while the policies concern about urban growth pattern, ecological protection and socioeconomic development. The results suggested that (1) the coupled model can predict carbon storage change with urbanization in a high accuracy (relative error within ±5% for 94.6% of the whole area); (2) carbon storage of Shizuishan experienced a loss of 2.70 Tg in 1989–2015, and would continue to experience a loss of 6.18 Tg, 5.27 Tg, 3.76 Tg and 2.47 Tg under historical growth scenario (HGS), decrease socioeconomic scenario (DSS), compact growth scenario (CGS) and ecological protection scenario (EPS) in 2015–2035, respectively; (3) compact urban growth pattern and ecological protection policy can both decrease the negative effects of urbanization on carbon storage. Multiple ecosystem services should be integrated into urban planning to achieve a balance of socioeconomic development and environment protection.

Urbanization, an unavoidable global process, has driven land use change, impacted ecosystem services, and induced serious environmental problems. As a result, urban planning is a critical issue in sustainable development. In this study, we developed a framework to quantify how urbanization influences ecosystem services (ESs) in order to provide suggestions for urban planning during large scale urban agglomeration in northwestern China. We separated the region into three sub-regions (developed urban, developing urban, and rural areas), quantified five critical ESs (crop production, carbon storage, nutrient retention, sand fixation, and habitat quality), analyzed the relationships (trade-off, synergy, and bundle) among ES changes, and investigated the impacts of urbanization on these ESs. The results show that urbanization results in large scale reclamation and small scale deforestation in rural areas; it comprehensively results in an increase of four ESs (not habitat quality). Urban expansion mainly occurs in developing urban areas and causes a decrease in four ESs (not sand fixation). Based on temporal change in ESs, synergy relationships exist among them, except for between nutrient retention and crop production, which have an insignificant correlation. Urban expansion would strengthen the synergy relationships among regulating services, while green infrastructure in core urban areas would weaken these relationships. Based on the spatial distribution of ES change, two bundles were identified among the five ESs: 1) crop production, carbon storage, and nutrient retention; and 2) sand fixation and habitat quality. Based on these findings, several suggestions for urban expansion and land use planning are proposed to achieve an optimized balance between urbanization and ES protection. Investigating the impacts of rapid urbanization on ESs and their relationships could provide scientifically based suggestions for urban planning according to ES protection, sustainable urban development, and human well-being.

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