In this paper we describe a cellular automaton (CA) simulation model developed to predict urban growth as part of a project for estimating the regional and broader impact of urbanization on the San Francisco Bay area's climate. The rules of the model are more complex than those of a typical CA and involve the use of multiple data sources, including topography, road networks, and existing settlement distributions, and their modification over time. In addition, the control parameters of the model are allowed to self-modify: that is, the CA adapts itself to the circumstances it generates, in particular, during periods of rapid growth or stagnation. In addition, the model was written to allow the accumulation of probabilistic estimates based on Monte Carlo methods. Calibration of the model has been accomplished by the use of historical maps to compare model predictions of urbanization,

No abstract

This paper applies methods of multiple resolution map comparison to quantify characteristics for 13 applications of 9 different popular peer-reviewed land change models. Each modeling application simulates change of land categories in raster maps from an initial time to a subsequent time. For each modeling application, the statistical methods compare: (1) a reference map of the initial time, (2) ence map of the subsequent time, and (3) a prediction map of the subsequent time. The three possible two-map comparisons for each application characterize: (1) the dynamics of the landscape, (2) the behavior of the model, and (3) the accuracy of the prediction. The three-map comparison for each application specifies the amount of the prediction's accuracy that is attributable to land persistence versus land change. Results show that the amount of error is larger than the amount of correctly predicted change for 12 of the 13 applications at the resolution of the raw data. The applications are summarized and compared using two statistics: the null resolution and the figure of merit. According to the figure of merit, the more accurate applications are the 123Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change 13 ones where the amount of observed net change in the reference maps is larger. This paper facilitates communication among land change modelers, because it illustrates the range of results for a variety of models using scientifically rigorous, generally applicable, and intellectually accessible statistical techniques. JEL Classification

No abstract

No abstract

Remote sensing technology has great potential for acquisition of detailed and accurate land-use information for management and planning of urban regions. However, the determination of land-use data with high geometric and thematic accuracy is generally limited by the availability of adequate remote sensing data, in terms of spatial and temporal resolution, and digital image analysis techniques. This study introduces a methodology using information on image spatial form—landscape metrics—to describe urban land-use structures and land-cover changes that result from urban growth. The analysis is based on spatial analysis of land-cover structures mapped from digitally classified aerial photographs of the urban region Santa Barbara, CA. Landscape metrics were calculated for segmented areas of homogeneous urban land use to allow a further characterization of the land use of these areas. The results show a useful separation and characterization of three urban land-use types: commercial development, high-density residential, and low-density residential. Several important structural land-cover features were identified for this study. These were: the dominant general land cover (built up or vegetation), the housing density, the mean structure and plot size, and the spatial aggregation of built-up areas. For two test areas in the Santa Barbara region, changes (urban growth) in the urban spatial land-use structure can be described and quantified with landscape metrics. In order to discriminate more accurately between the three land-cover types of interest, the landscape metrics were further refined into what are termed ‘landscape metric signatures’ for the land-use categories. The analysis shows the importance of the spatial measurements as second-order image information that can contribute to more detailed mapping of urban areas and towards a more accurate characterization of spatial urban growth pattern.

No abstract

This paper explores an addition to theory in urban geography pertaining to spatio-temporal dynamics. Remotely sensed data on the historical extent of urban areas were used in a spatial metrics analysis of geographical form of towns and cities in the Central Valley of California (USA). Regularities in the spatiotemporal pattern of urban growth were detected and characterized over a hundred year period. To test hypotheses about variation over geographical scale, multiple spatial extents were used in examining a set of spatial metric values including an index of contagion, the mean nearest neighbor distance, urban patch density and edge density. Through changes in these values a general temporal oscillation between phases of diffusion and coalescence in urban growth was revealed. Analysis of historical datasets revealed preliminary evidence supporting an addition to the theory of urban growth dynamics, one alluded to in some previous research, but not well developed. The empirical results and findings provide a lead for future research into the dynamics of urban growth and further development of existing urban theory.