Calibration of the SLEUTH urban growth model for Lisbon and Porto, Portugal

Silva, E.A; Clarke, Keith

doi:10.1016/s0198-9715(01)00014-x

Cited by 432 publications

(345 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(4 reference statements)

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“…The use of urban CA models in the literature is prolific, but few are portable. SLEUTH (Clarke et al 1997) is a model that has been widely cited in the literature, uses a well-documented calibration routine, and has been applied in numerous geographic locations (Silva and Clarke 2002, Esnard and Yang 2003, Yang and Lo 2003, Leão et al 2004. Admittedly, the spatial analysis of model forecasts has a large degree of uncertainty associated with it since the future cannot be validated (Goldstein et al 2004).…”

Section: Sleuth Urban Growth Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio‐temporal dynamics in California's Central Valley: Empirical links to urban theory

Dietzel

Herold

Hemphill

et al. 2005

International Journal of Geographical Information Science

260

158

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This paper explores an addition to theory in urban geography pertaining to spatio-temporal dynamics. Remotely sensed data on the historical extent of urban areas were used in a spatial metrics analysis of geographical form of towns and cities in the Central Valley of California (USA). Regularities in the spatiotemporal pattern of urban growth were detected and characterized over a hundred year period. To test hypotheses about variation over geographical scale, multiple spatial extents were used in examining a set of spatial metric values including an index of contagion, the mean nearest neighbor distance, urban patch density and edge density. Through changes in these values a general temporal oscillation between phases of diffusion and coalescence in urban growth was revealed. Analysis of historical datasets revealed preliminary evidence supporting an addition to the theory of urban growth dynamics, one alluded to in some previous research, but not well developed. The empirical results and findings provide a lead for future research into the dynamics of urban growth and further development of existing urban theory.

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Section: Sleuth Urban Growth Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio‐temporal dynamics in California's Central Valley: Empirical links to urban theory

Dietzel

Herold

Hemphill

et al. 2005

International Journal of Geographical Information Science

260

158

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…3 and 1). Silva and Clarke (2002) described the characteristics and the recent intense urban growth of the metropolitan area of Porto (MAP) and Lisbon (MAL) associated with the economic growth in the end of the 20th century (Fernandez-Villaverde et al, 2013). In further detail, a mixture of urban surfaces and large farmlands, intense urbanization along with train lines and main roads, and the emergence of tertiary centers characterized the MAL urban pattern.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, MAP is described by scattered urbanization and dispersed settlements, towns and rural villages surrounded by mountains, within small patches of intensive agriculture and pine forests in a steep slope topography. The decline of the rental market at country level led to the degradation of old urban areas and to the increase in new constructions in the immediate periphery of Lisbon, while in the north new houses were built by the owners in their small plots of land, promoting a more dispersed urban pattern and an irregular spatial growth (Silva and Clarke, 2002). The dispersion of the population and of its activities in MAP can also be explained as a consequence of the regional territory planning and the polycentric models of urban growth adopted by the national authorities (Cardoso, 1996;Silva and Clarke, 2002).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The decline of the rental market at country level led to the degradation of old urban areas and to the increase in new constructions in the immediate periphery of Lisbon, while in the north new houses were built by the owners in their small plots of land, promoting a more dispersed urban pattern and an irregular spatial growth (Silva and Clarke, 2002). The dispersion of the population and of its activities in MAP can also be explained as a consequence of the regional territory planning and the polycentric models of urban growth adopted by the national authorities (Cardoso, 1996;Silva and Clarke, 2002). Another active process identified by the change analysis that was performed is the abandonment of agricultural lands near the inland urban areas, which leads to an increase in uncultivated semi-natural and forest areas (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global assessment of rural–urban interface in Portugal related to land cover changes

Tonini

Parente

Pereira

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The rural-urban interface (RUI), known as the area where structures and other human developments meet or intermingle with wildland and rural area, is at present a central focus of wildfire policy and its mapping is crucial for wildfire management. In the Mediterranean Basin, humans cause the vast majority of fires and fire risk is particularly high in the proximity of infrastructure and of rural/wildland areas. RUI's extension changes under the pressure of environmental and anthropogenic factors, such as urban growth, fragmentation of rural areas, deforestation and, more in general, land use/land cover change (LULCC). As with other Mediterranean countries, Portugal has experienced significant LULCC in the last decades in response to migration, rural abandonment, ageing of population and trends associated with the high socioeconomic development. In the present study, we analyzed the LULCC occurring in this country in the 1990-2012 period with the main objective of investigating how these changes affected RUI's evolution. Moreover, we performed a qualitative and quantitative characterization of burnt areas within the RUI in relation to the observed changes. Obtained results disclose important LULCC and reveal their spatial distribution, which is far from uniform within the territory. A significant increase in artificial surfaces was registered near the main metropolitan communities of the northwest, littoral-central and southern regions, whilst the abandonment of agricultural land near the inland urban areas led to an increase in uncultivated semi-natural and forest areas. Within agricultural areas, heterogeneous patches suffered the greatest changes and were the main contributors to the increase in urban areas; moreover, this land cover class, together with forests, was highly affected by wildfires in terms of burnt area. Finally, from this analysis and during the investigated period, it appears that RUI increased in Portugal by more than two-thirds, while the total burnt area decreased by one-third; nevertheless, burnt area within RUI doubled, which emphasizes the significance of RUI monitoring for land and fire managers.

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“…This is especially the case when combined with an understanding of existing land uses (Iacono and Levinson 2009;Yang, Li and Shi 2008). Prediction of land use change also improves by incorporating topographic characteristics (Clarke and Gaydos 1998;Silva and Clarke 2002). Steep slopes and river valleys often preclude development while higher land with attractive viewsheds may encourage high-end real estate development and increase home values (Bourassa et al 2004).…”

Section: Socio-politicaleconomic Template Pulsesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land fragmentation under rapid urbanization: A cross-site analysis of Southwestern cities

et al. 2011

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Explosive population growth and increasing demand for rural homes and lifestyles fueled exurbanization and urbanization in the western USA over the past decades. Using National Land Cover Data we analyzed land fragmentation trends from 1992 to 2001 in five southwestern cities associated with Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites. We observed two general fragmentation trends: expansion of the urbanized area leading to Urban Ecosyst (2011) fragmentation in the exurban and peri-urban regions and decreased fragmentation associated with infill in the previously developed urban areas. We identified three fragmentation patterns, riparian, polycentric, and monocentric, that reflect the recent western experience with growth and urbanization. From the literature and local expert opinion, we identified five relevant drivers -water provisioning, population dynamics, transportation, topography, and institutions -that shape land use decision-making and fragmentation in the southwest. In order to assess the relative importance of each driver on urbanization, we linked historical site-specific driver information obtained through literature reviews and archival analyses to the observed fragmentation patterns. Our work highlights the importance of understanding land use decision-making drivers in concert and throughout time, as historic decisions leave legacies on landscapes that continue to affect land form and function, a process often forgotten in a region and era of blinding change.

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Calibration of the SLEUTH urban growth model for Lisbon and Porto, Portugal

Cited by 432 publications

References 18 publications

Spatio‐temporal dynamics in California's Central Valley: Empirical links to urban theory

Spatio‐temporal dynamics in California's Central Valley: Empirical links to urban theory

Global assessment of rural–urban interface in Portugal related to land cover changes

Land fragmentation under rapid urbanization: A cross-site analysis of Southwestern cities

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