Among the greatest uncertainties in future energy supply and a subject of considerable environmental concern is the amount of oil and gas yet to be found in the Arctic. By using a probabilistic geology-based methodology, the United States Geological Survey has assessed the area north of the Arctic Circle and concluded that about 30% of the world's undiscovered gas and 13% of the world's undiscovered oil may be found there, mostly offshore under less than 500 meters of water. Undiscovered natural gas is three times more abundant than oil in the Arctic and is largely concentrated in Russia. Oil resources, although important to the interests of Arctic countries, are probably not sufficient to substantially shift the current geographic pattern of world oil production.

Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle T he U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has completed an assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources in all areas north of the Arctic Circle. Using a geologybased probabilistic methodology, the USGS estimated the occurrence of undiscovered oil and gas in 33 geologic provinces thought to be prospective for petroleum. The sum of the mean estimates for each province indicates that 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids may remain to be found in the Arctic, of which approximately 84 percent is expected to occur in offshore areas.

In the Niger Delta province, we have identified one petroleum system-the Tertiary Niger Delta (Akata-Agbada) petroleum system. The delta formed at the site of a rift triple junction related to the opening of the southern Atlantic starting in the Late Jurassic and continuing into the Cretaceous. The delta proper began developing in the Eocene, accumulating sediments that now are over 10 kilometers thick. The primary source rock is the upper Akata Formation, the marine-shale facies of the delta, with possibly contribution from interbedded marine shale of the lowermost Agbada Formation. Oil is produced from sandstone facies within the Agbada Formation, however, turbidite sand in the upper Akata Formation is a potential target in deep water offshore and possibly beneath currently producing intervals onshore. Known oil and gas resources of the Niger Delta rank the province as the twelfth largest in the world. To date, 34.5 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 93.8 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas have been discovered. In 1997, Nigeria was the fifth largest crude oil supplier to the United States, supplying 689,000 barrels/day of crude.

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The USGS has assessed undiscovered petroleum resources in the Arctic through geological mapping, basin analysis and quantitative assessment. The new map compilation provided the base from which geologists subdivided the Arctic for burial history modelling and quantitative assessment. The CARA was a probabilistic, geologically based study that used existing USGS methodology, modified somewhat for the circumstances of the Arctic. The assessment relied heavily on analogue modelling, with numerical input as lognormal distributions of sizes and numbers of undiscovered accumulations. Probabilistic results for individual assessment units were statistically aggregated taking geological dependencies into account. Fourteen papers in this Geological Society volume present summaries of various aspects of the CARA.

For more information on the USGS-the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprodTo order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. AbstractThis report was originally published in 2010. This edition of the report, version 2, fixes minor bugs relating to correlations and coproducts.This report presents an improved methodology for estimating volumes of continuous (unconventional) oil and gas resources within the United States and around the world. The methodology is based on previously developed U.S. Geological Survey methodologies that rely on well-scale production data. Improvements were made primarily to how the uncertainty about estimated ultimate recoveries is incorporated in the estimates. This is particularly important when assessing areas with sparse or no production data, because the new methodology allows better use of analog data from areas with significant discovery histories.

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