Sovereign creditworthiness within the euro area hinges upon the credibility of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). We analyse whether political events that worsen the SGP's credibility result in a shared default risk premium for all euro members, therefore leading to a joint deterioration of creditworthiness. We especially examine the decisions and statements of the Commission and the Council of Economic and Finance Ministers. Analysing daily data through the 1999-2005 period with an ARMA-GARCH model, we find the Commission plays a decisive role in affecting investor evaluations, where its credibility-strengthening decisions decrease volatility and statements signalling a weakening of fiscal credibility spark uncertainty on financial markets. Our results stress the importance of creating credible fiscal institutions that preserve sovereign creditworthiness within the euro area.
Global regulatory standard setting is one of the most lucrative battlefields of the international political economy. Asymmetric influence and regulatory capture in setting such standards can undermine the regulation of economic activity, with negative externalities for the society. Scholars of International Political Economy, and of global finance in particular, are in the process of revealing the mechanisms underlying such regulatory capture and failure. I contribute to this analysis with an empirical evaluation of the mechanisms underlying influence in setting such standards. I assess the influence of nine different national, transnational, and international actors in the case of global banking regulation (the Basel II framework of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision). On the basis of a quantitativeÀqualitative assessment, I develop integration and rejection rates to measure influence in global regulation. My findings reveal that the key dynamic in setting global standards is the simultaneous influence of national (competition state) coalitions of politicians and firms as well as transnational harmonization coalitions of transnationally active firms and regulators. The results provide a basis for a new argument to understand regulatory capture and failure.
Are overheating housing markets and rising interest rate risks becoming a breeding ground for yet another banking crisis? We assess these risks for the German case. We find that they are indeed building up and may very well form the basis for a new banking crisis – unless prevented through responsible banking decisions, supervisory guidance, and policy adjustments.
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