Abstract. Air pollution, in particular high concentrations of particulate matter smaller than 1 µm in diameter (PM1), continues to be a major health problem, and meteorology is known to substantially influence atmospheric PM concentrations. However, the scientific understanding of the ways in which complex interactions of meteorological factors lead to high-pollution episodes is inconclusive. In this study, a novel, data-driven approach based on empirical relationships is used to characterize and better understand the meteorology-driven component of PM1 variability. A tree-based machine learning model is set up to reproduce concentrations of speciated PM1 at a suburban site southwest of Paris, France, using meteorological variables as input features. The model is able to capture the majority of occurring variance of mean afternoon total PM1 concentrations (coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.58), with model performance depending on the individual PM1 species predicted. Based on the models, an isolation and quantification of individual, season-specific meteorological influences for process understanding at the measurement site is achieved using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) regression values. Model results suggest that winter pollution episodes are often driven by a combination of shallow mixed layer heights (MLHs), low temperatures, low wind speeds, or inflow from northeastern wind directions. Contributions of MLHs to the winter pollution episodes are quantified to be on average ∼5 µg/m3 for MLHs below <500 m a.g.l. Temperatures below freezing initiate formation processes and increase local emissions related to residential heating, amounting to a contribution to predicted PM1 concentrations of as much as ∼9 µg/m3. Northeasterly winds are found to contribute ∼5 µg/m3 to predicted PM1 concentrations (combined effects of u- and v-wind components), by advecting particles from source regions, e.g. central Europe or the Paris region. Meteorological drivers of unusually high PM1 concentrations in summer are temperatures above ∼25 ∘C (contributions of up to ∼2.5 µg/m3), dry spells of several days (maximum contributions of ∼1.5 µg/m3), and wind speeds below ∼2 m/s (maximum contributions of ∼3 µg/m3), which cause a lack of dispersion. High-resolution case studies are conducted showing a large variability of processes that can lead to high-pollution episodes. The identification of these meteorological conditions that increase air pollution could help policy makers to adapt policy measures, issue warnings to the public, or assess the effectiveness of air pollution measures.

Abstract. Air pollution, in particular high concentrations of particulate matter smaller than 1 µm in diameter (PM1), continues to be a major health problem, and meteorology is known to substantially contribute to atmospheric PM concentrations. However, the scientific understanding of the complex mechanisms leading to high pollution episodes is inconclusive, as the effects of meteorological variables are not easy to separate and quantify. In this study, a novel, data-driven approach based on empirical relationships is used to characterise the role of meteorology on atmospheric concentrations of PM1. A tree-based machine learning model is set up to reproduce concentrations of speciated PM1 at a suburban site southwest of Paris, France, using meteorological variables as input features. The contributions of each meteorological feature to modeled PM1 concentrations are quantified using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) regression values. Meteorological contributions to PM1 concentrations are analysed in selected high-resolution case studies, contrasting season-specific processes. Model results suggest that winter pollution episodes are often driven by a combination of shallow mixed layer heights (MLH), low temperatures, low wind speeds or inflow from northeastern wind directions. Contributions of MLHs to the winter pollution episodes are quantified to be on average ~ 5 µg/m³ for MLHs below 500 m agl. Temperatures below freezing initiate formation processes and increase local emissions related to residential heating, amounting to a contribution of as much as ~ 9 µg/m³. Northeasterly winds are found to contribute ~ 5 µg/m³ to total PM1 concentrations (combined effects of u- and v-wind components), by advecting particles from source regions, e.g. central Europe or the Paris region. However, in calm conditions (i.e. wind speeds

Air pollution can endanger human health, especially in urban areas. Assessment of air quality primarily relies on ground-based measurements, but these provide only limited information on the spatial distribution of pollutants. In recent years, satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) has been used to approximate particulate matter (PM) with varying success. In this study, the relationship between hourly mean concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter of 10 micrometers or less (PM10) and instantaneous AOD measurements is investigated for Berlin, Germany, for 2001–2015. It is found that the relationship between AOD and PM10 is rarely linear and strongly influenced by ambient relative humidity (RH), boundary layer height (BLH), wind direction and wind speed. Generally, when a moderately dry atmosphere (30% < RH ≤ 50%) coincides with a medium BLH (600–1200 m), AOD and PM10 are in the same range on a semi-quantitative scale. AOD increases with ambient RH, leading to an overestimation of the dry particle concentration near ground. However, this effect can be compensated if a low boundary layer (<600 m) is present, which in turn significantly increases PM10, eventually leading to satellite AOD and PM10 measurements of similar magnitude. Insights of this study potentially influence future efforts to estimate near-ground PM concentrations based on satellite AOD.

The quantification of factors leading to harmfully high levels of particulate matter (PM) remains challenging. This study presents a novel approach using a statistical model that is trained to predict hourly concentrations of particles smaller than 10  μm (PM10) by combining satellite‐borne aerosol optical depth (AOD) with meteorological and land‐use parameters. The model is shown to accurately predict PM10 (overall R 2 = 0.77, RMSE = 7.44  μg/m 3) for measurement sites in Germany. The capability of satellite observations to map and monitor surface air pollution is assessed by investigating the relationship between AOD and PM10 in the same modeling setup. Sensitivity analyses show that important drivers of modeled PM10 include multiday mean wind flow, boundary layer height (BLH), day of year (DOY), and temperature. Different mechanisms associated with elevated PM10 concentrations are identified in winter and summer. In winter, mean predictions of PM10 concentrations >35  μg/m 3 occur when BLH is below ∼500 m. Paired with multiday easterly wind flow, mean model predictions surpass 40  μg/m 3 of PM10. In summer, PM10 concentrations seemingly are less driven by meteorology, but by emission or chemical particle formation processes, which are not included in the model. The relationship between AOD and predicted PM10 concentrations depends to a large extent on ambient meteorological conditions. Results suggest that AOD can be used to assess air quality at ground level in a machine learning approach linking it with meteorological conditions.

Aerosols are a critical component of the climate system and a risk to human health. Here, the lockdown response to the coronavirus outbreak is used to analyse effects of dramatic reduction in anthropogenic aerosol sources on satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD). A machine learning model is applied to estimate daily AOD during the initial lockdown in China in early 2020. The model uses information on aerosol climatology, geography and meteorological conditions, and explains 69% of the day-to-day AOD variability. A comparison of model-expected and observed AOD shows that no clear, systematic decrease in AOD is apparent during the lockdown in China. During March 2020, regional AOD is observed to be significantly lower than expected by the machine learning model in some coastal regions of the North China Plains and extending to the Korean peninsula. While this may possibly indicate a small lockdown effect on regional AOD, and potentially pointing trans-boundary effects of the lockdown measures, due to uncertainties associated with the method and the limited sample sizes, this AOD decrease cannot be unequivocally attributed to reduced anthropogenic emissions. Climatologically expected AOD is compared to a weather-adjusted expectation of AOD, indicating that meteorological influences have acted to significantly increase AOD during this time, in agreement with recent literature. The findings highlight the complexity of aerosol variability and the challenges of observation-based attribution of columnar aerosol changes.

&lt;div&gt;This contribution presents a technique for the machine-learning-based retrieval of cloud liquid&amp;#160;water path. Cloud effects are among the major uncertainties in climate models for estimating&amp;#160;and predicting the Earth&amp;#8217;s energy budget. The study of cloud processes requires information&amp;#160;on cloud physical properties, such as the liquid water path (LWP), which is commonly&amp;#160;retrieved from satellite sensors using look-up table approaches. However, the accuracy of&amp;#160;LWP varies temporally and spatially, also due to assumptions inherent in any physical&amp;#160;retrieval. The aim of this study is to improve the accuracy of LWP and analyze quantitatively&amp;#160;the accuracy and its errors. To this end, a statistical LWP retrieval was developed using&amp;#160;spectral information from geostationary satellite channels (Meteosat Spinning-Enhanced&amp;#160;Visible and Infrared Imager, SEVIRI), and satellite viewing geometry. The machine-learning&amp;#160;method chosen is gradient-boosted regression trees (GBRTs), which is an ensemble of&amp;#160;decision trees but more effective than traditional tree-based models. This study reports on&amp;#160;first results, as well as a comparison between the GBRT-derived LWP estimates and those&amp;#160;from the SEVIRI-based products of the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility&amp;#160;(CM-SAF, CLAAS-A2), as well as MODIS products. We use case studies for individual&amp;#160;in-situ measurement sites in Europe under varying meteorological conditions to determine&amp;#160;the factors influencing LWP retrieval quality.&lt;/div&gt;

This paper presents a machine-learning built model approach to analyse an extensive multi-parameter dataset at observational in a suburban area south of Paris. The focus of the manuscript is using a recently published tool ("SHapley Additive exPlanation(SHAP) values") to analyse the machine-learning model's predictions and then attribute drives of the statistical model." The paper presents large amounts of information about the output from the analysis tool, but not enough focused justification or evidence is presented about how novel these interpretations are or how that they could be used for air pollution mitigation C1

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