The authors present a model of free sample effects and evidence from two field experiments on free samples. The model incorporates three potential effects of free samples on sales: (1) an acceleration effect, whereby consumers begin repeat purchasing of the sampled brand earlier than they otherwise would; (2) a cannibalization effect, which reduces the number of paid trial purchases of the brand; and (3) an expansion effect, which induces purchasing by consumers who would not consider buying the brand without a free sample. The empirical findings suggest that, unlike other consumer promotions such as coupons, free samples can produce measurable long-term effects on sales that can be observed as much as 12 months after the promotion. The data also show that the effectiveness of free sample promotions can vary widely, even between brands in the same product category. Application of the model to the data from the two experiments reveals that the magnitude of acceleration, cannibalization, and expansion effects varies substantially across the two free sample promotions. These and other findings suggest that the model can be a useful tool for obtaining insights into the nature of free sample promotions.free samples, samples, promotions, field experiments, incremental volume, coupons, incremental sales, sampling programs, consumer products, panel data, repeat purchasing, long-term effects

An assumption in prior research on deal-prone or coupon-prone buyers has been that buying on deal is influenced in part by a household's demographic characteristics. One implication is that households that are deal-prone or coupon-prone in one product class should be so in other product classes. The authors develop a model of coupon usage across product classes that explains why households might behave consistently in their coupon usage across product classes. Purchase data are analyzed across seven product classes for each household to test the hypothesis that coupon usage is not independent across product classes and to identify differences in demographic variables and purchasing behavior between coupon-prone and non-coupon-prone households.

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Several models of consumer response to promotions suggest that a current decision on brand and purchase quantity depends on the expected time until the next price reduction and the expected size of future reductions. In spite of the importance of expected deal frequency and expected deal price to a consumer's decision, relatively little empirical work has been reported on those topics. The authors investigate several aspects of consumer perceptions of deal frequency and deal prices. First, a conceptual model is presented to describe how consumers develop and use those perceptions. Second, results of an extensive survey are used to estimate the degree of consumer knowledge about deal frequency and deal prices. Third, hypotheses about which types of consumers have better knowledge of promotions are tested. Results from the survey indicate that many consumers are reasonably accurate about deal frequency and sale price. In addition, recall on deal frequency and sale price is higher for consumers with larger family sizes and those who read weekly fliers for items on sale, devote a higher percentage of product class purchases to the brand, and purchase the package size more frequently. It is lower for older buyers.

The authors examine the effects of a manufacturer coupon on brand choice behavior. The level of coupon redemption and changes in brand choice behavior after redemption are examined as a function of the household's prior probability of purchasing the promoted brand, likelihood of buying a favorite competitive brand, and coupon face value. A model of the coupon redemption decision is developed to predict response to the coupon promotion by different consumer segments. Predictions from the model are tested by using scanner panel data from a field experiment on coupon face values. Coupon redemption rates are found to be much higher among households that have purchased the brand on a regular basis in the past. The results also suggest that most consumers revert to their precoupon choice behavior immediately after their redemption purchase. These and other findings have important implications for the profitability of coupon promotions.

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