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We tested the hypothesis that routine monitoring data could describe a detailed and distinct pathophysiologic phenotype of impending hypoglycemia in adult ICU patients. DESIGN:Retrospective analysis leading to model development and validation. SETTING:All ICU admissions wherein patients received insulin therapy during a 4-year period at the University of Virginia Medical Center. Each ICU was equipped with continuous physiologic monitoring systems whose signals were archived in an electronic data warehouse along with the entire medical record. PATIENTS:Eleven thousand eight hundred forty-seven ICU patient admissions. INTERVENTIONS:The primary outcome was hypoglycemia, defined as any episode of blood glucose less than 70 mg/dL where 50% dextrose injection was administered within 1 hour. We used 61 physiologic markers (including vital signs, laboratory values, demographics, and continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring variables) to inform the model. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:Our dataset consisted of 11,847 ICU patient admissions, 721 (6.1%) of which had one or more hypoglycemic episodes. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed a pathophysiologic signature of 41 independent variables that best characterized ICU hypoglycemia. The final model had a cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.78-0.87) for prediction of impending ICU hypoglycemia. We externally validated the model in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III critical care dataset, where it also demonstrated good performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.77-0.81). CONCLUSIONS:We used data from a large number of critically ill inpatients to develop and externally validate a predictive model of impending ICU hypoglycemia. Future steps include incorporating this model into a clinical decision support system and testing its effects in a multicenter randomized controlled clinical trial.

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Objectives To demonstrate how heart rate fragmentation gives novel insights into non-autonomic mechanisms of beat-to-beat variability in cycle length, and predicts survival of cardiology clinic patients, over and above traditional clinical risk factors and measures of heart rate variability. Approach: We studied 2893 patients seen by cardiologists with clinical data including 24-hour Holter monitoring. Novel measures of heart rate fragmentation alongside canonical time and frequency domain measures of heart rate variability, as well as an existing local dynamics score were calculated. A proportional hazards model was utilized to relate the results to survival. Main results: The novel heart rate fragmentation measures were validated and characterized with respect to the effects of age, ectopy and atrial fibrillation. Correlations between parameters were determined. Critically, heart rate fragmentation results could not be accounted for by undersampling respiratory sinus arrhythmia. Increased heart rate fragmentation was associated with poorer survival (p ≪ 0.01 in the univariate model). In multivariable analyses, increased heart rate fragmentation and more abnormal local dynamics (p 0.045), along with increased clinical risk factors (age (p ≪ 0.01), tobacco use (p ≪ 0.01) and history of heart failure (p 0.019)) and lower low- to high-frequency ratio (p 0.022) were all independent predictors of 2-year mortality. Significance: Analysis of continuous ECG data with heart rate fragmentation indices yields information regarding non-autonomic control of beat-to-beat variability in cycle length that is independent of and additive to established parameters for investigating heart rate variability, and predicts mortality in concert with measures of local dynamics, frequency content of heart rate, and clinical risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Sedation is recommended to optimize neuroprotection in neonates with hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) undergoing therapeutic hypothermia (TH). Dexmedetomidine is an alternative agent to opioids, which are commonly used but have adverse effects. Both TH and dexmedetomidine can cause bradycardia. In this study, we describe our experience with dexmedetomidine and fentanyl in neonates undergoing TH for HIE, with a focus on heart rate (HR). METHODS: We performed a retrospective chart review from 2011–2019 at a level IV NICU comparing sedation with dexmedetomidine (n = 14), fentanyl (n = 120), or both (n = 32) during TH for HIE. HR trends were compared based on sedation and gestational age. Neonates were included if they underwent TH and received sedation and were excluded if cooling was initiated past 24 hours(h) of life or required ECMO. RESULTS: Of the 166 neonates included, 46 received dexmedetomidine, 14 as monotherapy and 32 in combination with fentanyl. Mean hourly HR from 12–36 h after birth was significantly lower for infants on dexmedetomidine versus fentanyl monotherapy (91±9 vs. 103±11 bpm, p <  0.002). Dexmedetomidine was decreased or discontinued in 22 (47.8%) neonates, most commonly due to inadequate sedation with a low HR. Lower gestational age was associated with higher HR but no significant difference in dexmedetomidine-related HR trends. CONCLUSIONS: Despite an association with lower HR, dexmedetomidine may be successfully used in neonates with HIE undergoing TH. Implementation of a standardized protocol may facilitate dexmedetomidine titration in this population.

Objective Severe intraventricular hemorrhage (sIVH, grades 3 and 4) is a serious complication for very low birth weight (VLBW) infants and is often clinically silent requiring screening cranial ultrasound (cUS) for detection. Abnormal vital sign (VS) patterns might serve as biomarkers to identify risk or occurrence of sIVH. Study Design This retrospective study was conducted in VLBW infants admitted to two level-IV neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) between January 2009 and December 2018. Inclusion criteria were: birth weight <1.5 kg and gestational age (GA) <32 weeks, at least 12 hours of systemic oxygen saturation from pulse oximetry (SpO2) data over the first 24 hours and cUS imaging. Infants were categorized as early sIVH (sIVH identified in the first 48 hours), late sIVH (sIVH identified after 48 hours and normal imaging in the first 48 hours), and no IVH. Infants with grades 1 and 2 or unknown timing IVH were excluded. Mean heart rate (HR), SpO2, mean arterial blood pressure (MABP), number of episodes of bradycardia (HR < 100 bpm), and desaturation (SpO2 < 80%) were compared. Results A total of 639 infants (mean: 27 weeks' gestation) were included (567 no IVH, 34 early sIVH, and 37 late sIVH). In the first 48 hours, those with sIVH had significantly higher HR compared with those with no IVH. Infants with sIVH also had lower mean SpO2 and MABP and more desaturations <80%. No significant differences in VS patterns were identified in early versus late sIVH. Logistic regression identified higher HR and greater number of desaturations <80% as independently associated with sIVH. Conclusion VLBW infants who develop sIVH demonstrate VS differences with significantly lower SpO2 and higher mean HR over the first 48 hours after birth compared with VLBW infants with no IVH. Abnormalities in early VS patterns may be a useful biomarker for sIVH. Whether VS abnormalities predict or simply reflect sIVH remains to be determined. Key Points

Background: Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) patients are at increased risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Autonomic nervous system aberrancy has been described in children with ASD, and we aimed to identify heart rate (HR) patterns in NICU patients associated with eventual ASD diagnosis. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included NICU patients from 2009-2016 with archived HR data and follow-up beyond age 3 years. Medical records provided clinical variables and ASD diagnosis. HR data were compared in infants with and without ASD. Results: Of 2371 patients, 88 had ASD, and 689,016 hours of data were analyzed. HR skewness (HRskw) was significantly different between ASD and control infants. Preterm infants at early postmenstrual ages (PMA) had negative HRskw reflecting decelerations, which increased with maturation. From 34-42 weeks PMA, positive HRskw toward accelerations was higher in males with ASD. In 931 males with at least 4 days of HR data, overall ASD prevalence was 5%, whereas 11% in the top 5 th HRskw percentile had ASD. Conclusion: High HRskw in NICU males, perhaps representing autonomic imbalance, was associated with increased ASD risk. Further study is needed to determine whether HR analysis identifies highest risk infants who might benefit from earlier screening and therapies.

Background: Progressive hypoxemia is the predominant mode of deterioration in COVID-19. Among hypoxemia measures, the ratio of the partial pressure of arterial oxygen to the fraction of inspired oxygen (P/F ratio) has optimal construct validity but poor availability because it requires arterial blood sampling. Pulse oximetry reports oxygenation continuously, but occult hypoxemia can occur in Black patients because the technique is affected by skin color. Oxygen dissociation curves allow non-invasive estimation of P/F ratios (ePFR) but this approach remains unproven. Research Question: Can ePFRs measure overt and occult hypoxemia? Study Design and methods: We retrospectively studied COVID-19 hospital encounters (n=5319) at two academic centers (University of Virginia [UVA] and Emory University). We measured primary outcomes (death or ICU transfer within 24 hours), ePFR, conventional hypoxemia measures, baseline predictors (age, sex, race, comorbidity), and acute predictors (National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and Sepsis-3). We updated predictors every 15 minutes. We assessed predictive validity using adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and area under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROC). We quantified disparities (Black vs non-Black) in empirical cumulative distributions using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) two-sample test. Results: Overt hypoxemia (low ePFR) predicted bad outcomes (AOR for a 100-point ePFR drop: 2.7 [UVA]; 1.7 [Emory]; p<0.01) with better discrimination (AUROC: 0.76 [UVA]; 0.71 [Emory]) than NEWS (AUROC: 0.70 [UVA]; 0.70 [Emory]) or Sepsis-3 (AUROC: 0.68 [UVA]; 0.65 [Emory]). We found racial differences consistent with occult hypoxemia. Black patients had better apparent oxygenation (K-S distance: 0.17 [both sites]; p<0.01) but, for comparable ePFRs, worse outcomes than other patients (AOR: 2.2 [UVA]; 1.2 [Emory], p<0.01). Interpretation: The ePFR was a valid measure of overt hypoxemia. In COVID-19, it may outperform multi-organ dysfunction models like NEWS and Sepsis-3. By accounting for biased oximetry as well as clinicians' real-time responses to it (supplemental oxygen adjustment), ePFRs may enable statistical modelling of racial disparities in outcomes attributable to occult hypoxemia.