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Although most heterosexually transmitted HIV infection among African Americans in the South is associated with established high-risk characteristics, poverty may be an underlying determinant of these behaviors and a contributor to infection risk even in people who do not have high-risk behaviors.

Concurrent partnerships likely accelerate heterosexual HIV transmission among blacks in the rural southeastern United States. Future research should examine the socioeconomic context that supports this network pattern.

SYNOPSISObjectives. Optimistic predictions for the Healthy People 2010 goals of eliminating racial/ethnic disparities in health have been made based on absolute improvements in life expectancy and mortality. This study sought to determine whether there is evidence of relative improvement (a more valid measure of inequality) in life expectancy and mortality, and whether such improvement, if demonstrated, predicts future success in eliminating disparities.Methods. Historical data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the Census Bureau were used to predict future trends in relative mortality and life expectancy, employing an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Excess mortality and time lags in mortality and life expectancy for blacks relative to whites were also estimated.Results. Based on data for 1945 to 1999, forecasts for relative black:white ageadjusted, all-cause mortality and white:black life expectancy at birth showed trends toward increasing disparities. From 1979, when the Healthy People initiative began, to 1998, the black:white ratio of age-adjusted, gender-specific mortality increased for all but one of nine causes of death that accounted for 83.4% of all US mortality in 1998. From 1980 to 1998, average numbers of