BACKGROUND The RTS,S/AS01 vaccine targets the circumsporozoite protein of Plasmodium falciparum and has partial protective efficacy against clinical and severe malaria disease in infants and children. We investigated whether the vaccine efficacy was specific to certain parasite genotypes at the circumsporozoite protein locus. METHODS We used polymerase chain reaction–based next-generation sequencing of DNA extracted from samples from 4985 participants to survey circumsporozoite protein polymorphisms. We evaluated the effect that polymorphic positions and haplotypic regions within the circumsporozoite protein had on vaccine efficacy against first episodes of clinical malaria within 1 year after vaccination. RESULTS In the per-protocol group of 4577 RTS,S/AS01-vaccinated participants and 2335 control-vaccinated participants who were 5 to 17 months of age, the 1-year cumulative vaccine efficacy was 50.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34.6 to 62.3) against clinical malaria in which parasites matched the vaccine in the entire circumsporozoite protein C-terminal (139 infections), as compared with 33.4% (95% CI, 29.3 to 37.2) against mismatched malaria (1951 infections) (P = 0.04 for differential vaccine efficacy). The vaccine efficacy based on the hazard ratio was 62.7% (95% CI, 51.6 to 71.3) against matched infections versus 54.2% (95% CI, 49.9 to 58.1) against mismatched infections (P = 0.06). In the group of infants 6 to 12 weeks of age, there was no evidence of differential allele-specific vaccine efficacy. CONCLUSIONS These results suggest that among children 5 to 17 months of age, the RTS,S vaccine has greater activity against malaria parasites with the matched circumsporozoite protein allele than against mismatched malaria. The overall vaccine efficacy in this age category will depend on the proportion of matched alleles in the local parasite population; in this trial, less than 10% of parasites had matched alleles. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.)

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SummaryBackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine targets the circumsporozoite protein, inducing antibodies associated with the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infection. We assessed the association between anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres and the magnitude and duration of vaccine efficacy using data from a phase 3 trial done between 2009 and 2014.MethodsUsing data from 8922 African children aged 5–17 months and 6537 African infants aged 6–12 weeks at first vaccination, we analysed the determinants of immunogenicity after RTS,S/AS01 vaccination with or without a booster dose. We assessed the association between the incidence of clinical malaria and anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres using a model of anti-circumsporozoite antibody dynamics and the natural acquisition of protective immunity over time.FindingsRTS,S/AS01-induced anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres were greater in children aged 5–17 months than in those aged 6–12 weeks. Pre-vaccination anti-circumsporozoite titres were associated with lower immunogenicity in children aged 6–12 weeks and higher immunogenicity in those aged 5–17 months. The immunogenicity of the booster dose was strongly associated with immunogenicity after primary vaccination. Anti-circumsporozoite titres wane according to a biphasic exponential distribution. In participants aged 5–17 months, the half-life of the short-lived component of the antibody response was 45 days (95% credible interval 42–48) and that of the long-lived component was 591 days (557–632). After primary vaccination 12% (11–13) of the response was estimated to be long-lived, rising to 30% (28–32%) after a booster dose. An anti-circumsporozoite antibody titre of 121 EU/mL (98–153) was estimated to prevent 50% of infections. Waning anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres predict the duration of efficacy against clinical malaria across different age categories and transmission intensities, and efficacy wanes more rapidly at higher transmission intensity.InterpretationAnti-circumsporozoite antibody titres are a surrogate of protection for the magnitude and duration of RTS,S/AS01 efficacy, with or without a booster dose, providing a valuable surrogate of effectiveness for new RTS,S formulations in the age groups considered.FundingUK Medical Research Council.

Background HIV transmission risk during acute and early HIV infection (EHI) is sharply elevated, but the contribution of EHI to ongoing HIV transmission is controversial. However, in settings where EHI contributes substantially to secondary transmissions, early diagnosis and intervention may be critical for HIV prevention. We estimated the contribution of EHI to HIV incidence in Lilongwe, Malawi and predicted the future impact of hypothetical prevention interventions affecting EHI only, chronic HIV infection (CHI) only, or both stages. Methods We developed a deterministic mathematical model describing heterosexual HIV transmission, informed by detailed behavioural and viral load data collected in Lilongwe. We included sexual contact within and outside steady pairs and divided the infectious period into multiple intervals to allow for changes in transmissibility by infection stage. We used a Bayesian melding approach to fit the model to HIV prevalence data collected over time at Lilongwe antenatal clinics. We evaluated interventions that reduced the per-contact transmission probability to 0·00003 in those receiving them and varied the proportion of individuals receiving the intervention in each stage. Findings We estimated that 38·4% (95% credible interval: 18·6%-52·3%) of ongoing HIV transmissions in Lilongwe are attributable to sexual contact with EHI index cases. Interventions acting only during EHI substantially reduced HIV prevalence, but did not lead to elimination, even with 100% coverage. Interventions acting only during CHI also reduced HIV prevalence, but coverage levels of 95%-99% were required to move the epidemic toward elimination. In scenarios with <95% CHI coverage, additional interventions reaching 25%-75% of EHI cases reduced HIV prevalence substantially. Interpretation Our results suggest that EHI plays an important role in HIV transmission in this sub-Saharan African setting. Without near-perfect coverage, interventions during CHI will likely have incomplete effectiveness unless complemented by strategies targeting the heightened transmission risk of EHI.