Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera. A 1°C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases. Temperature and rainfall interaction yielded a significantly positive association (P < 0.04) with cholera at a 1-month lag. These results may be applied to forecast cholera outbreaks, and guide public health resources in controlling cholera in Zanzibar.
BackgroundThe World Health Organization (WHO) recommends oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) as a supplementary tool to conventional prevention of cholera. Dukoral, a killed whole-cell two-dose OCV, was used in a mass vaccination campaign in 2009 in Zanzibar. Public and private costs of illness (COI) due to endemic cholera and costs of the mass vaccination campaign were estimated to assess the cost-effectiveness of OCV for this particular campaign from both the health care provider and the societal perspective.Methodology/Principal FindingsPublic and private COI were obtained from interviews with local experts, with patients from three outbreaks and from reports and record review. Cost data for the vaccination campaign were collected based on actual expenditure and planned budget data. A static cohort of 50,000 individuals was examined, including herd protection. Primary outcome measures were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) per death, per case and per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. One-way sensitivity and threshold analyses were conducted. The ICER was evaluated with regard to WHO criteria for cost-effectiveness. Base-case ICERs were USD 750,000 per death averted, USD 6,000 per case averted and USD 30,000 per DALY averted, without differences between the health care provider and the societal perspective. Threshold analyses using Shanchol and assuming high incidence and case-fatality rate indicated that the purchase price per course would have to be as low as USD 1.2 to render the mass vaccination campaign cost-effective from a health care provider perspective (societal perspective: USD 1.3).Conclusions/SignificanceBased on empirical and site-specific cost and effectiveness data from Zanzibar, the 2009 mass vaccination campaign was cost-ineffective mainly due to the relatively high OCV purchase price and a relatively low incidence. However, mass vaccination campaigns in Zanzibar to control endemic cholera may meet criteria for cost-effectiveness under certain circumstances, especially in high-incidence areas and at OCV prices below USD 1.3.
BackgroundThe gold standard for the diagnosis of cholera is stool culture, but this requires laboratory facilities and takes at least 24 hours. A rapid diagnostic test (RDT) that can be used by minimally trained staff at treatment centers could potentially improve the reporting and management of cholera outbreaks.MethodsWe evaluated the Crystal VC™ RDT under field conditions in Zanzibar in 2009. Patients presenting to treatment centers with watery diarrhea provided a stool sample for rapid diagnostic testing. Results were compared to stool culture performed in a reference laboratory. We assessed the overall performance of the RDT and evaluated whether previous intake of antibiotics, intravenous fluids, location of testing, and skill level of the technician affected the RDT results.ResultsWe included stool samples from 624 patients. Compared to culture, the overall sensitivity of the RDT was 93.1% (95%CI: 88.7 to 96.2%), specificity was 49.2% (95%CI: 44.3 to 54.1%), the positive predictive value was 47.0% (95%CI: 42.1 to 52.0%) and the negative predictive value was 93.6% (95%CI: 89.6 to 96.5%). The overall false positivity rate was 50.8% (213/419); fieldworkers frequently misread very faint test lines as positive.ConclusionThe observed sensitivity of the Crystal VC RDT evaluated was similar compared to earlier versions, while specificity was poorer. The current version of the RDT could potentially be used as a screening tool in the field. Because of the high proportion of false positive results when field workers test stool specimens, positive results will need to be confirmed with stool culture.
SummaryBackgroundThe indirect effects of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are mediated through reductions in carriage of vaccine serotypes. Data on PCVs in Asia and the Pacific are scarce. Fiji introduced the ten-valent PCV (PCV10) in 2012, with a schedule consisting of three priming doses at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age and no booster dose (3 + 0 schedule) without catch-up. We investigated the effects of PCV10 introduction using cross-sectional nasopharyngeal carriage surveys.MethodsWe did four annual carriage surveys (one pre-PCV10 and three post-PCV10) in the greater Suva area in Fiji, during 2012–15, of 5–8-week-old infants, 12–23-month-old children, 2–6-year-old children, and their caregivers (total of 8109 participants). Eligible participants were of appropriate age, had axillary temperature lower than 37°C, and had lived in the community for at least 3 consecutive months. We used purposive quota sampling to ensure a proper representation of the Fiji population. Pneumococci were detected by real-time quantitative PCR, and molecular serotyping was done with microarray.Findings3 years after PCV10 introduction, vaccine-serotype carriage prevalence declined, with adjusted prevalences (2015 vs 2012) of 0·56 (95% CI 0·34–0·93) in 5–8-week-old infants, 0·34 (0·23–0·49) in 12–23-month-olds, 0·47 (0·34–0·66) in 2–6-year-olds, and 0·43 (0·13–1·42) in caregivers. Reductions in PCV10 serotype carriage were evident in both main ethnic groups in Fiji; however, carriage of non-PCV10 serotypes increased in Indigenous Fijian infants and children. Density of PCV10 serotypes and non-PCV10 serotypes was lower in PCV10-vaccinated children aged 12–23 months than in PCV10-unvaccinated children of the same age group (PCV10 serotypes −0·56 [95% CI −0·98 to −0·15], p=0·0077; non-PCV10 serotypes −0·29 [–0·57 to −0·02], p=0·0334).InterpretationDirect and indirect effects on pneumococcal carriage post-PCV10 are likely to result in reductions in pneumococcal disease, including in infants too young to be vaccinated. Serotype replacement in carriage in Fijian children, particularly Indigenous children, warrants further monitoring. Observed changes in pneumococcal density might be temporal rather than vaccine related.FundingDepartment of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Australian Government through the Fiji Health Sector Support Program; Victorian Government's Operational Infrastructure Support Program; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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