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Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera. A 1°C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases. Temperature and rainfall interaction yielded a significantly positive association (P < 0.04) with cholera at a 1-month lag. These results may be applied to forecast cholera outbreaks, and guide public health resources in controlling cholera in Zanzibar.

BackgroundThe World Health Organization (WHO) recommends oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) as a supplementary tool to conventional prevention of cholera. Dukoral, a killed whole-cell two-dose OCV, was used in a mass vaccination campaign in 2009 in Zanzibar. Public and private costs of illness (COI) due to endemic cholera and costs of the mass vaccination campaign were estimated to assess the cost-effectiveness of OCV for this particular campaign from both the health care provider and the societal perspective.Methodology/Principal FindingsPublic and private COI were obtained from interviews with local experts, with patients from three outbreaks and from reports and record review. Cost data for the vaccination campaign were collected based on actual expenditure and planned budget data. A static cohort of 50,000 individuals was examined, including herd protection. Primary outcome measures were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) per death, per case and per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. One-way sensitivity and threshold analyses were conducted. The ICER was evaluated with regard to WHO criteria for cost-effectiveness. Base-case ICERs were USD 750,000 per death averted, USD 6,000 per case averted and USD 30,000 per DALY averted, without differences between the health care provider and the societal perspective. Threshold analyses using Shanchol and assuming high incidence and case-fatality rate indicated that the purchase price per course would have to be as low as USD 1.2 to render the mass vaccination campaign cost-effective from a health care provider perspective (societal perspective: USD 1.3).Conclusions/SignificanceBased on empirical and site-specific cost and effectiveness data from Zanzibar, the 2009 mass vaccination campaign was cost-ineffective mainly due to the relatively high OCV purchase price and a relatively low incidence. However, mass vaccination campaigns in Zanzibar to control endemic cholera may meet criteria for cost-effectiveness under certain circumstances, especially in high-incidence areas and at OCV prices below USD 1.3.

We conducted a respondent driven sampling survey to estimate HIV prevalence and risk behavior among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Unguja, Zanzibar. Men aged ≥ 15 years living in Unguja and reporting anal sex with another man in the past 3 months were asked to complete a questionnaire and provide specimens for biologic testing. HIV prevalence was 12.3% (95% confidence interval 8.7, 16.3). HIV infection was associated with injecting drugs in the past 3 months, Hepatitis C virus infection and being paid for sex in the past year. Interventions for MSM in Zanzibar are needed and should include linkages to prevention, care and treatment services.

BackgroundThe gold standard for the diagnosis of cholera is stool culture, but this requires laboratory facilities and takes at least 24 hours. A rapid diagnostic test (RDT) that can be used by minimally trained staff at treatment centers could potentially improve the reporting and management of cholera outbreaks.MethodsWe evaluated the Crystal VC™ RDT under field conditions in Zanzibar in 2009. Patients presenting to treatment centers with watery diarrhea provided a stool sample for rapid diagnostic testing. Results were compared to stool culture performed in a reference laboratory. We assessed the overall performance of the RDT and evaluated whether previous intake of antibiotics, intravenous fluids, location of testing, and skill level of the technician affected the RDT results.ResultsWe included stool samples from 624 patients. Compared to culture, the overall sensitivity of the RDT was 93.1% (95%CI: 88.7 to 96.2%), specificity was 49.2% (95%CI: 44.3 to 54.1%), the positive predictive value was 47.0% (95%CI: 42.1 to 52.0%) and the negative predictive value was 93.6% (95%CI: 89.6 to 96.5%). The overall false positivity rate was 50.8% (213/419); fieldworkers frequently misread very faint test lines as positive.ConclusionThe observed sensitivity of the Crystal VC RDT evaluated was similar compared to earlier versions, while specificity was poorer. The current version of the RDT could potentially be used as a screening tool in the field. Because of the high proportion of false positive results when field workers test stool specimens, positive results will need to be confirmed with stool culture.