This article appropriates a new methodology for evaluating port projects involving not only economic analysis, but also strategic factors, technological and market, wich provide greater security and assertiveness on the search for the development of a Hub Port model as an option to optimize the logistics of port operations. To achieve the objectives of the proposal, a technical and economic analysis model was developed to demonstrate the feasibility of the project with the inclusion of technological features (deep of ships, modes of transport linking the port to its region of land influence, expansion area) and market components (cargo demands, free trade zone, distance from the main centers of world trade) that decisively interfere in the attractiveness of the project. Linked to this proposal, a risk analysis was carried out, including uncertainties involving economic and strategic aspects, with market and technological variables. To achieve the objectives of the study, the Monte Carlo method operated by the software “@RiskTM” was used, where the analyzes of positive and negative interferences in the project were carried out. To evaluate the proposed methodology, it was applied in two cases studies of the feasibility of a new logistics platform in Brazil and Africa, with the implementation of an offshore cargo concentrator port. One was in the State of Pará, in northern Brazil, and the other in Dakar, Senegal, which can integrate the entire South America and Africa, respectivaly. The results of those analysis show very favorable indicators for the implementation of the proposed projects. Considering that, strategic factors introduced in the study, the greatest influences were: transport modes that link the port to the land influence zone and the draft of the ships. For the offshore port of Pará, strategic factors boosted the viability result by approximately 55% for a 95% probability of success and for Dakar, in Africa, the results were 100%, both for a 14% rate and a life span of 30 years showing that strategic factors are elements very importatants, as they produced almost 100% and 70% elasticity in the results, respectivaly, so they should be considered in feasibility studies of hub ports in addition to tradicioanl economic analysis.

The advancement of maritime transport in the world in recent years has proved to be very efficient, leading to the expansion of one of the main ocean transposition channels in the world. Aware of this reality, this work develops an assessment of the implementation of a port project in the northern region of Brazil, using Monte Carlo methodology-based risk analysis software, computer simulations are generated for a 35-year lifespan, resulting in the distribution and tornado readings of the main existing risks and the optimal market rate (14,7%), for 100% of project feasibility.

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RESUMO:  A implantação de grandes empreendimentos em regiões específicas dos grandes centros urbanos, promove o deslocamento da população de baixa renda para zonas periféricas, devido ao aumento dos preços dos imóveis no local. Essa mudança ocorre muitas vezes sem qualquer tipo de planejamento de mobilidade e infraestrutura, o que aumenta o índice de acidentes e lentidão de tráfego. Algumas cidades, como é o caso de Belém/ PA, estão localizadas na região amazônica, rodeada por rios que podem ser utilizados como alternativa de mobilidade para a redução destas questões. Este trabalho, tem como objetivo verificar a percepção qualitativa do usuário sobre o meio de transporte rodoviário que interliga duas regiões da cidade (uma no centro, e uma na região periférica), bem como avaliar a o interesse dos passageiros por um meio de transporte aquaviário auxiliando na mobilidade urbana. Foram aplicados questionários para obtenção de opinião popular com questionamentos acerca de indicadores de qualidade obtidos em referencial bibliográfico, e também a respeito da implantação de um modal alternativo. Os resultados demonstram grande precariedade na qualidade do serviço prestado ao usuário do modal rodoviário que interliga zonas periféricas e zonas centrais da cidade, bem como a grande receptividade da população residente da zona periférica a respeito da implantação do transporte aquaviário, realizando o mesmo trajeto que hoje só é feito pelas vias terrestres. Os diagnósticos obtidos, podem embasar futuras políticas públicas para desenvolvimento da mobilidade na cidade.  ABSTRACT: The implementation of large enterprises in specific regions on urban centers, leads to the displacement of low-income population to peripheral zones, due to the increase of prices of properties on that place. This fact often occurs without any kind of mobility and infrastructure planning, which increases the rate of accidents and slow traffic. Some cities, such as Belém / PA, are located inside the Amazon region, surrounded by rivers that can be used as mobility alternatives to reduce these issues. This paper, therefore, aims to verify the qualitative perception of the population about the road transportation that interconnects two regions of the city (one in the center, and one in the peripheral region), as well as evaluate the interest of the passengers about river transportation aiding urban mobility. Questionnaires were used to obtain popular opinion about quality indicators, taken from bibliographic references, and also regarding to the implementation of an alternative modal. The results show a great precariousness in the quality of the service provided to the user of the road modal that interconnects peripheral and central zones of the city, as well as the great receptivity of the resident population of the peripheral zone in terms of the implantation of the waterway transport, carrying out the same route that today it is only made by land. The diagnoses obtained, can support future public policies for the development of mobility in the city.