Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh siklus keuangan terhadap stabilitas sistemkeuangan di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis data Error CorrectionModel (ECM). Variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Indeks Stabilitas SistemKeuangan (ISSK), Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG), Indeks Harga Properti Residual(IHPR), nilai tukar atau kurs dan kredit. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Indeks HargaSaham Gabungan (IHSG), Indeks Harga Properti Residual (IHPR) berpengaruh negatif terhadapIndeks Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan (ISSK) baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang.Kurs berpengaruh terhadap Indeks Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan (ISSK) dalam jangka pendek,sedangkan untuk jangka panjang tidak berpengaruh. Pertumbuhan kredit tidak berpengaruhterhadap Indeks Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan (ISSK) dalam jangka pendek maupun jangkapanjang.Kata Kunci: Siklus Keuangan, Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan, Error Correction Model
The banking sector plays a vital role in the economy of each country. Banks are required to operate in a sound, efficient, and reliable manner in order to stimulate economic growth. To achieve that, a basic framework for the Indonesian banking system has been developed, known as the Indonesian Banking Architecture (IBA) aimed at strengthening the structure and enhancing the competitiveness of the banking industry. This study aimed to analyze the level of competition, the ability, and influence of the competition on banks efficiency, so banks can maintain the performance level and provide economic growth. This study used a quantitative approach with a panel regression analysis model. The results have shown that the banking industry in Indonesia tends to be monopolistic. The character of many sellers, differentiated products, sellers freely entering and leaving the market, as well as the presence of advertisement and product quality competitions were examined. Bank competition that leads to a monopolistic market structure stimulated banks to achieve higher profits and put bank projects and financing at high risk. Competition had a negative correlation with bank efficiency because competition encourages banks to focus on profit rather than efficiency, engage in risky financing/projects, and undertake high lending activities. Moreover, four big banks in Indonesia are in the “too big to fail” position. Banking regulators in Indonesia must maintain and produce reliable and stable banks to compete globally. AcknowledgementThe authors would like to thank all those who have contributed to the completion of this article, especially the leadership of the Department of Economics and the Faculty of Economics and Business, Brawijaya University, who provided facilitation for publication in reputable international journals.
Inflation is becoming one of the critical variables in the economy. Any movement in inflation will cause some changes to fundamental economic variables, such as economic growth and unemployment. Therefore, inflation becomes a variable that is often observed and tested, both theoretically and empirically. Stable inflation is a prerequisite for sustainable economic growth, which ultimately benefits the improvement of people's well-being. Using city-level inflation data in East Java, this study aims to measure inflation's persistence at the city level in East Java. The persistence of inflation indicates the speed at which the inflation rate returns to its equilibrium level after a shock. This study will also analyze the causes of persistence in eight cities in East Java. In this study, to measure the degree of inflationary persistence, the study used an Autoregressive Univariate Model. The test results found that (1) inflation in eight cities in East Java tended to fluctuate throughout the research period. The highest inflation occurred in Probolinggo City, while the lowest was in Madiun City. The most significant contributors to inflation are food groups. Then (2) the result obtained is the degree of inflation persistence in eight cities in East Java is still relatively high, so it requires attention from regulators. Moreover, the persistence of inflation is caused by high inflation expectations or leading to forward-looking. Based on the findings, the government needs to devise a measured strategy to control inflation to be stable, such as optimizing the Regional Inflation Control Team (TPID).
The Covid-19 pandemic has undermined the achievements of economic growth in various countries, including in the Southeast Asia region. The characteristics of the Southeast Asian region, which are based on the agricultural and industrial sectors, have become the foundation for economic recovery efforts. Therefore, this study chose the agricultural and industrial sectors as the database of research. Further, this study aims to analyze the influence of the agricultural sector and the industrial sector on economic growth in ASEAN+6, covering Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore. In this study, secondary data will be used for the period from 1991 to 2020 and the sources is from the official website of the World Bank by taking world development indicator data with the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) method. It was found that the share of value-added in the agricultural sector and the industrial sector in the ASEAN+6 has a significant contribution to economic recovery efforts in the region. The increase in these two sectors has shown a real impact on accelerating economic recovery through increased production activity. The findings of this study are expected to be a reference for policies to increase output in the two sectors, encourage economic growth, and accelerate economic recovery in each country.
Sektor perbankan memiliki peran penting dalam perekonomian. Munculnya era dual banking system menjadi alternatif pendanaan selain dari bank konvensional dalam mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi. Bank juga diharapkan dapat mengelola risiko dengan baik, salah satunya risiko sistemik. Risiko ini timbul karena efek penularan dan diperparah oleh keterkaitan keuangan antar bank. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis efek penularan melalui pendekatan risiko sistemik dan keterkaitan keuangn pada sistem perbankan ganda di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan model Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) yang dikembangkan oleh Adrian & Brunnermeier (2009) dengan sampel 8 bank syariah dan 7 bank konvensional di Indonesia periode Januari 2012 hingga Desember 2018. Hasil yang diperoleh adalah risiko sistemik dan keterkaitan keuangan mampu menjelaskan efek penularan dalam sistem perbankan. Risiko sistemik yang tinggi dan keterkaitan keuangan yang tinggi pula dapat mendorong eksternalitas negatif terhadap institusi lain dalam sistem perbankan, dalam hal ini mentransmisikan risiko. Kata kunci: efek penularan, risiko sistemik, keterkaitan keuangan, sistem perbankan ganda
Islamic banking in Indonesia has developed as indicated marked by the establishment of Bank Muamalat Indonesia as the first Islamic bank in Indonesia. Islamic banks—Besides the conventional bansk— are an alternative source of financing which are expected to support the country's economic growth. Banks are also known as risk-prone institutions, one of which is systemic risk. This study aims to measure systemic risk and financial linkages in Islamic commercial banks in Indonesia. This study uses the Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) model developed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009) with data samples of 8 Islamic banks in Indonesia from January 2012 to December 2018. The results isobtained are the contribution of systemic risk is not determined by the size of bank assets and individual risk. k, sBo that both small banks and large banks can threaten financial system stability. So that it can be a reference for regulators to always supervise all banks, not only large banks but also small banks that have high individual risks.
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