OBJECTIVE
To understand temporal trends in the contribution of different genital tract infections to HIV incidence over 20 years of follow-up in a cohort of high-risk women.
DESIGN
Prospective cohort study.
METHODS
We performed monthly evaluations for HIV, vaginal yeast, bacterial vaginosis (BV), Trichomonas vaginalis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, non-specific cervicitis, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), genital ulcer disease (GUD) and genital warts. We used Cox regression to evaluate the association between STIs and HIV acquisition over 4 time periods (1993–1997, 1998–2002, 2003–2007, 2008–2012). Models were adjusted for age, workplace, sexual risk behavior, hormonal contraceptive use, and other STIs. The resulting hazard ratios were used to calculate population attributable risk percent (PAR%).
RESULTS
Between 1993 and 2012, 1,964 women contributed 6,135 person-years of follow-up. The overall PAR% for each infection was: prevalent HSV-2 (48.3%), incident HSV-2 (4.5%), BV (15.1%), intermediate microbiota (7.5%), vaginal yeast (6.4%), T. vaginalis (1.1%), N. gonorrhoeae (0.9%), non-specific cervicitis (0.7%), GUD (0.8%), and genital warts (−0.2%). Across the four time periods, the PAR% for prevalent HSV-2 (40.4%, 61.8%, 58.4%, 48.3%) and BV (17.1%, 19.5%, 14.7%, 17.1%), remained relatively high and had no significant trend for change over time. The PAR% for trichomoniasis, gonorrhea, GUD and genital warts remained <3% across the four periods.
CONCLUSIONS
Bacterial vaginosis and HSV-2 have consistently been the largest contributors to HIV acquisition risk in the Mombasa Cohort over the past 20 years. Interventions that prevent these conditions would benefit women’s health, and could reduce their risk of becoming infected with HIV.