The use of seasonal climate forecasts can inform implementation of planned adaptation strategies to stabilize pastoral livestock assets in drought prone agro ecological zones. The main objective of this study was to assess use of seasonal climate forecasts as strategies for securing pastoralists assets in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Baringo County. The study used five (5) study locations that were purposively picked to ensure that they fall within the ASAL agro-ecological zones, LM5 and IL6. The total sampled households from the five locations was 221. The study used data from household survey to establish barriers to use of seasonal climate forecasts, use of traditional climate information and enabling conditions. Mean comparisons and frequencies of ratings were generated to ascertain the use of traditional climate information among the respondents. Sensitivity analysis was useful in identifying the most significant barriers to uptake of seasonal climate forecasts and the best and most significant enabling conditions/institutions to the access and usage of climate forecasts. The study established that majority (72.4%) of the respondents relied on traditional climate forecast methods than scientific methods in decision-making. The factors with greater influence on uptake of seasonal climate forecast information were lack of information, access, diversified sources of income and insecurity/conflicts, illiteracy and culture. The institutions with large influence were knowledge dissemination linked to radio and extension services and local climate information. The study recommends increased investments in strengthening and equipping human resource capacities of the pastoral community, local weather stations and extension services to foster uptake of scientific climate information to help reduce vulnerability to drought events in the arid and semi-arid lands.

No abstract

No abstract

The study was undertaken to determine rainfall variability and droughts in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Baringo County. The study used rainfall data for Perkerra Agricultural Research Station (LM5) and Nginyang rainfall station (IL6) for the period 1970-2008 and 1974-2013 respectively. Standardized anomalies were calculated and plotted to establish trends of drought events across the study period. Plots of rainfall data from the two stations displayed an oscillating trend with major rainfall peaks being observed in 1977 and 2007 for Perkerra, 1982 and 1997 for Nginyang. Analysis of rainfall data from the two stations indicates four catastrophic drought periods recognized with standard anomalies of less than −0.9 (SA (t) < −0.9) as a function of the time scales. The study findings reveal that MAM seasonal drought index plots for both Perkerra and Nginyang rainfall stations had a declining long-term MAM seasonal rainfall trend. Perkerra OND Seasonal Drought Index plot indicates a constant trend in the long-term OND seasonal rainfall while Nginyang long-term OND seasonal drought trend shows a gentle upward trend, an indication that the conditions are improving. The study recommends the strengthening of uptake of seasonal climate forecast to inform appropriate decision making regarding response to rainfall variability and drought events.