Enabling Conditions for Improved Use of Seasonal Climate Forecast in Arid and Semi-Arid Baringo County—Kenya

Abstract

The use of seasonal climate forecasts can inform implementation of planned adaptation strategies to stabilize pastoral livestock assets in drought prone agro ecological zones. The main objective of this study was to assess use of seasonal climate forecasts as strategies for securing pastoralists assets in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Baringo County. The study used five (5) study locations that were purposively picked to ensure that they fall within the ASAL agro-ecological zones, LM5 and IL6. The total sampled households from the five locations was 221. The study used data from household survey to establish barriers to use of seasonal climate forecasts, use of traditional climate information and enabling conditions. Mean comparisons and frequencies of ratings were generated to ascertain the use of traditional climate information among the respondents. Sensitivity analysis was useful in identifying the most significant barriers to uptake of seasonal climate forecasts and the best and most significant enabling conditions/institutions to the access and usage of climate forecasts. The study established that majority (72.4%) of the respondents relied on traditional climate forecast methods than scientific methods in decision-making. The factors with greater influence on uptake of seasonal climate forecast information were lack of information, access, diversified sources of income and insecurity/conflicts, illiteracy and culture. The institutions with large influence were knowledge dissemination linked to radio and extension services and local climate information. The study recommends increased investments in strengthening and equipping human resource capacities of the pastoral community, local weather stations and extension services to foster uptake of scientific climate information to help reduce vulnerability to drought events in the arid and semi-arid lands.

Determinants of access and utilisation of seasonal climate information services among smallholder farmers in Makueni County, Kenya

“…(2002) , Oyekale (2012) , Kirui et al. (2014) , Yong (2014) and Ochieng et al. (2017) , the independent variables included in the selection equation (Determinants of access to CIS) were; farmer characteristics (Age of household head measured in years, sex of household head—equal to1 if male and zero female, Household size—number of resident household members, Year of completed formal education of household head, major livelihood activity—equal to 1 if farming and 0 if otherwise, Household monthly cash income in Kenya Shillings) ; farm characteristics (Farm size in hectares, Frequency of exposure to drought) , Institutional factors , (access to extension services—equal to 1 for farmers with access to extension services and 0 if otherwise, access to credit—equals 1 if household received credit and 0 if otherwise, Group membership—equal to 1 if the household has a member who participated in a farmers' group and 0 if otherwise) , communication assets (radio ownership—equals 1 if household own a radio and 0 if otherwise, television ownership—equals 1 if household owned a television and 0 if otherwise).…”

Identifying user needs for weather and climate services to enhance resilience to climate shocks in sub-Saharan Africa

“…Used for characterising water resources availability and as a tool for humanitarian decision support Water and food security Sub-Saharan Africa drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting system 3.4.1. Awareness, understanding and accessibility The comparatively low uptake of WCS in SSA has been attributed to many factors including; awareness of WCS, accessibility of WCS, poor communication of forecasts, inappropriate use of language, illiteracy and culture (Ochieng et al 2017). Firstly, users must be aware that relevant WCS exist in order to utilise them.…”

“…Where potential users are aware of the existence of WCS, poor understanding of forecasts because the content and format are too technical and not clearly explained can lead to low uptake (Ochieng et al 2017). A lack of access to communication devices such as radios, televisions and mobile telephones used in transmitting forecast can limit who is able to use this information (Ochieng et al 2017). Challenges in accessing forecast information may be compounded by gender, with female farmers having lower access to WCS than their male counterparts (Oyekale 2015, Carr et al 2016.…”

The Effect of Inter-Organisational Collaboration Networks on Climate Knowledge Flows and Communication to Pastoralists in Kenya

“…This implies that climate risk warning and risk response advisory services informed by weather and climate forecasts will have to be tailored to all stages of decision making in the pastoral sector. These range from operational livestock herding options (that play out on daily to 6-month timescales), to tactical risk management (mostly associated with decisions on livelihood diversification, feedstock sourcing, and livestock sale, playing out at the 6-month to 3-year timescale), and strategic planning and policy decisions that play out at longer timescales, out to several decades in the future [22,23].In practice, the process of adoption of adaptation knowledge (The phrase adaptation knowledge as used here refers to the assimilation of information on climate risk warning and risk response strategy in policy and actions to address climate change in the pastoral sector.) begins with the sharing of information among the potential users through their social and other networks [3,24].…”

“…This implies that climate risk warning and risk response advisory services informed by weather and climate forecasts will have to be tailored to all stages of decision making in the pastoral sector. These range from operational livestock herding options (that play out on daily to 6-month timescales), to tactical risk management (mostly associated with decisions on livelihood diversification, feedstock sourcing, and livestock sale, playing out at the 6-month to 3-year timescale), and strategic planning and policy decisions that play out at longer timescales, out to several decades in the future [22,23].…”