Climate change has already been affecting the regional suitability of grapevines with significant advances in phenology being observed globally in the last few decades. This has significant implications for New Zealand, where the wine industry represents a major share of the horticultural industry revenue. We modeled key crop phenological stages to better understand temporal and spatial shifts in three important regions of New Zealand (Marlborough, Hawke's Bay, Central Otago) for three dominant cultivars (Merlot, Pinot noir, and Sauvignon blanc) and one potential new and later ripening cultivar (Grenache). Simulations show an overall advance in flowering, véraison, and sugar ripeness by mid-century with more pronounced advance by the end of the century. Results show the magnitude of changes depends on the combination of greenhouse gas emission pathway, grape cultivar, and region. By mid-century, in the Marlborough region for instance, the four cultivars would flower 3 to 7 days earlier and reach sugar ripeness 7 to 15 days earlier depending on the greenhouse gas emission pathway. For growers to maintain the same timing of key phenological stages would require shifting planting of cultivars to more Southern parts of the country or implement adaptation strategies. Results also show the compression of time between flowering and véraison for all three dominant cultivars is due to a proportionally greater advance in véraison, particularly for Merlot in the Hawke's Bay and Pinot noir in Central Otago. Cross-regional analysis also raises the likelihood of the different regional cultivars ripening within a smaller window of time, complicating harvesting schedules across the country. However, considering New Zealand primarily accommodates cool climate viticulture cultivars, our results suggest that late ripening cultivars or extended ripening window in cooler regions may be advantageous in the face of climate change. These insights can inform New Zealand winegrowers with climate change adaptation options for their cultivar choices.
Understanding the lag time between land management and impacts on riverine nitrate–nitrogen (N) loads is critical to understand when action to mitigate nitrate–N leaching losses from the soil profile may start improving water quality. These lags occur due to leaching of nitrate–N through the subsurface (soil and groundwater). Actions to mitigate nitrate–N losses have been mandated in New Zealand policy to start showing improvements in water quality within five years. We estimated annual rates of nitrate–N leaching and annual nitrate–N loads for 77 river catchments from 1990 to 2018. Lag times between these losses and riverine loads were determined for 34 catchments but could not be determined in other catchments because they exhibited little change in nitrate–N leaching losses or loads. Lag times varied from 1 to 12 years according to factors like catchment size (Strahler stream order and altitude) and slope. For eight catchments where additional isotope and modelling data were available, the mean transit time for surface water at baseflow to pass through the catchment was on average 2.1 years less than, and never greater than, the mean lag time for nitrate–N, inferring our lag time estimates were robust. The median lag time for nitrate–N across the 34 catchments was 4.5 years, meaning that nearly half of these catchments wouldn’t exhibit decreases in nitrate–N because of practice change within the five years outlined in policy.
The primary role for scientific information in addressing complex environmental problems, such as biological invasions, is generally assumed to be as a guide for management decisions. However, scientific information often plays a minor role in decision-making, with practitioners instead relying on professional experience and local knowledge. We explore alternative pathways by which scientific information could help reduce the spread and impacts of invasive species. Our study centred on attempts to understand the main motivations and constraints of three local governance bodies responsible for the management of invasive (wilding) conifer species in the southern South Island of New Zealand in achieving strategic and operational goals. We used a combination of workshop discussions, questionnaire responses and visits to field sites to elicit feedback from study participants. We applied a mixed inductive-deductive thematic analysis approach to derive themes from the feedback received. The three main themes identified were: (1) impacts of wilding conifers and goals for wilding conifer control, (2) barriers to achieving medium- and long-term goals, and (3) science needed to support wilding conifer control. Participants identified reversal and prevention of both instrumental (e.g. reduced water availability for agriculture) and intrinsic (e.g. loss of biodiversity and landscape values) impacts of wilding conifer invasions as primary motivators behind wilding conifer control. Barriers to achieving goals were overwhelmingly social, relating either to unwillingness of landowners to participate or poorly designed regulatory frameworks. Consequently, science needs related primarily to gaining social licence to remove wilding conifers from private land and for more appropriate regulations. Scientific information provided via spread and impacts forecasting models was viewed as a key source of scientific information in gaining social licence. International experience suggests that invasive species control programmes often face significant external social barriers. Thus, for many biological invasions, the primary role of science might be to achieve social licence and regulatory support for the long-term goals of invasive species control programmes and the management interventions required to achieve those goals.
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