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Climate change will impose increasingly warm and dry conditions on vineyards. Wine quality and yield are strongly influenced by climatic conditions and depend on complex interactions between temperatures, water availability, plant material, and viticultural techniques. In established winegrowing regions, growers have optimized yield and quality by choosing plant material and viticultural techniques according to local climatic conditions, but as the climate changes, these will need to be adjusted. Adaptations to higher temperatures include changing plant material (e.g., rootstocks, cultivars and clones) and modifying viticultural techniques (e.g., changing trunk height, leaf area to fruit weight ratio, timing of pruning) such that harvest dates are maintained in the optimal period at the end of September or early October in the Northern Hemisphere. Vineyards can be made more resilient to drought by planting drought resistant plant material, modifying training systems (e.g., goblet bush vines, or trellised vineyards at wider row spacing), or selecting soils with greater soil water holding capacity. While most vineyards in Europe are currently dry-farmed, irrigation may also be an option to grow sustainable yields under increasingly dry conditions but consideration must be given to associated impacts on water resources and the environment.

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Agrobiodiversity—the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices—is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood et al., Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531–539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar et al., Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261–270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly Vitis vinifera subspecies vinifera). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation—phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 °C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 °C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change—including in major winegrowing regions—as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.

During austral summer (DJF) 2017/18, the New Zealand region experienced an unprecedented coupled ocean-atmosphere heatwave, covering an area of 4 million km 2 . Regional average air temperature anomalies over land were +2.2°C, and sea surface temperature anomalies reached +3.7°C in the eastern Tasman Sea. This paper discusses the event, including atmospheric and oceanic drivers, the role of anthropogenic warming, and terrestrial and marine impacts. The heatwave was associated with very low wind speeds, reducing upper ocean mixing and allowing heat fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean to cause substantial warming of the stratified surface layers of the Tasman Sea. The event persisted for the entire austral summer resulting in a 3.8±0.6 km 3 loss of glacier ice in the Southern Alps (the largest annual loss in records back to 1962), very early Sauvignon Blanc wine-grape maturation in Marlborough, and major species disruption in marine ecosystems. The dominant driver was positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) conditions, with a smaller contribution from La Niña. The long-term trend towards positive SAM conditions, a result of stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse gas increase, is thought to have contributed through association with more frequent anticyclonic 'blocking' conditions in the New Zealand region and a more poleward average latitude for the Southern Ocean storm track. The unprecedented heatwave provides a good analogue for possible mean conditions in the late 21st century. The best match suggests this extreme summer may be typical of average New Zealand summer climate for 2081-2100, under the RCP4.5 or RCP6.0 scenario.

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Several studies have used grape harvest date (GHD) as a proxy for temperature variations of the last centuries in Europe. However, the use of grape harvest dates to reconstruct climate is not straightforward, with four possible causes of major flaws. In this study we identify and evaluate the accuracy of GHD as a proxy to past temperature anomalies, uncertainties in the model used to relate temperature to GHD, identity of the grape varieties cultivated in the past, type of wine produced in the past and cultural practices used in the past. Our analyses are based on several phenological and crop models, and on the most complete data set on grape vine phenology and harvest quality. We show that the two methodologies currently used — linear regression models and process-based phenological models — can be accurate, but process-based phenological models ascertain robustness to be applied confidently in different vineyards and different periods. However, we show that several factors can induce a bias in temperature reconstructions using process-based models. We demonstrate the importance of historical information on the studied areas such as the varieties cultivated, the style of wine produced, the quality sought, the agricultural practices, in order to build the most robust model.