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SignificanceMeltwater runoff is an important hydrological process operating on the Greenland ice sheet surface that is rarely studied directly. By combining satellite and drone remote sensing with continuous field measurements of discharge in a large supraglacial river, we obtained 72 h of runoff observations suitable for comparison with climate model predictions. The field observations quantify how a large, fluvial supraglacial catchment attenuates the magnitude and timing of runoff delivered to its terminal moulin and hence the bed. The data are used to calibrate classical fluvial hydrology equations to improve meltwater runoff models and to demonstrate that broad-scale surface water drainage patterns that form on the ice surface powerfully alter the timing, magnitude, and locations of meltwater penetrating into the ice sheet.

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

The accurate estimation of Antarctic precipitation variability is an essential component in understanding global sea level fluctuations; direct measurement techniques, however, are replete with practical difficulties. In this study, net precipitation (precipitation minus sublimation) for the Antarctic continent is computed for 1980–1994 using operational numerical analyses obtained from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts). The resulting estimations reveal a strong interannual variability for the Antarctic continent, implying a ±1.2 − 1.5 mm yr−1 maximum range in the Antarctic eustatic change contribution. In particular, variability for the South Pacific sector (120°W–180°W) is shown to be correlated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon for 1980–1990. The relation becomes anticorrelated after 1990, associated with a strong East Antarctic ridging pattern that coincides with the start of the prolonged series of warm events of the early 1990s. This result is relevant to other studies relating ENSO variability to high southern latitudes, and a more elaborate picture of this teleconnection pattern is presented. Comparisons of sea level pressure values using available ship observations show good agreement and offer a confirmation of the analyses in this data‐sparse region. Additionally, a comparison of results with values obtained from the precipitation fields of the NCEP/NCAR (NCEP: National Centers for Environmental Prediction; NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis project are discussed.

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Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean has a significant impact on the basin-scale freshwater and energy budgets but is one of the most poorly constrained variables in atmospheric reanalyses. Precipitation controls the snow cover on sea ice, which impedes the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere, inhibiting sea ice growth. Thus, accurate precipitation amounts are needed to inform sea ice modeling, especially for the production of thickness estimates from satellite altimetry freeboard data. However, obtaining a quantitative estimate of the precipitation distribution in the Arctic is notoriously difficult because of a number of factors, including a lack of reliable, long-term in situ observations; difficulties in remote sensing over sea ice; and model biases in temperature and moisture fields and associated uncertainty of modeled cloud microphysical processes in the polar regions. Here, we compare precipitation estimates over the Arctic Ocean from eight widely used atmospheric reanalyses over the period 2000–16 (nominally the “new Arctic”). We find that the magnitude, frequency, and phase of precipitation vary drastically, although interannual variability is similar. Reanalysis-derived precipitation does not increase with time as expected; however, an increasing trend of higher fractions of liquid precipitation (rainfall) is found. When compared with drifting ice mass balance buoys, three reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and NCEP R2) produce realistic magnitudes and temporal agreement with observed precipitation events, while two products [MERRA, version 2 (MERRA-2), and CFSR] show large, implausible magnitudes in precipitation events. All the reanalyses tend to produce overly frequent Arctic precipitation. Future work needs to be undertaken to determine the specific factors in reanalyses that contribute to these discrepancies in the new Arctic.

The atmospheric moisture budget is evaluated for the region 70ЊN to the North Pole using reanalysis datasets of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; ERA: ECMWF Re-Analysis) and the collaborative effort of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). For the forecast fields of the reanalyses, the ERA annually averaged P Ϫ E (precipitation minus evaporation/sublimation) field reproduces the major features of the basin perimeter as they are known, while the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis forecast fields contain a spurious wave pattern in both P and E. Comparisons between gauge data from Soviet drift camp stations and forecast P values of the reanalyses show reasonable agreement given the difficulties (i.e., gauge accuracy, translating location). When averaged for 70Њ-90ЊN, the ERA and NCEP-NCAR forecast P Ϫ E are similar in the annual cycle. Average reanalysis forecast values of E for the north polar cap are found to be 40% or more too large based on comparisons using surface latent heat flux climatologies.Differences between a synthesized average moisture flux across 70ЊN from rawinsonde data of the Historical Arctic Rawinsonde Archive (HARA) and the reanalysis data occur in the presence of rawinsonde network problems. It is concluded that critical deficiencies exist in the rawinsonde depiction of the summertime meridional moisture transport. However, it remains to be seen whether the rawinsonde estimate can be rectified with a different method. For 70Њ-90ЊN, annual moisture convergence (P Ϫ E ) values from the ERA and NCEP-NCAR are very similar; for both reanalyses, annual P Ϫ E values obtained from forecast fields are much lower than those obtained from moisture flux convergence by about 60%, indicating severe nonclosure of the atmospheric moisture budget. The nonclosure primarily results from anomalously large forecast E values. In comparison with other studies, reanalyses moisture convergence values are much more reasonable. A synthesis of the reanalysis moisture convergence values and more recent studies yields a value of 18.9 Ϯ 2.3 cm yr Ϫ1 for the north polar cap.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in Antarctic precipitation is evaluated using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses and ECMWF 15-yr (1979-93) reanalyses. Operational and reanalysis datasets indicate that the ENSO teleconnection with Antarctic precipitation is manifested through a close positive correlation between the Southern Oscillation index and West Antarctic sector (75Њ-90ЊS, 120ЊW-180Њ) precipitation from the early 1980s to 1990, and a close negative correlation after 1990. However, a comparison between the operational analyses and reanalyses shows significant differences in net precipitation (P Ϫ E) due to contrasts in the mean component of moisture flux convergence into the West Antarctic sector. These contrasts are primarily due to the mean winds, which differ significantly between the operational analyses and the reanalyses for the most reliable period of overlap (1985-93). Some of the differences in flow pattern are attributed to an error in the reanalysis assimilation of Vostok station data that suppresses the geopotential heights over East Antarctica. Reanalysis geopotential heights are also suppressed over the Southern Ocean, where there is a known cold bias below 300 hPa. Deficiencies in ECMWF reanalyses result in a weaker ENSO signal in Antarctic precipitation and cause them to miss the significant upward trend in precipitation found in recent operational analyses. Ice-core analyses reflect both an upward trend in ice accumulation and the ENSO teleconnection correlation pattern seen in the operational analyses. This study confirms the results of a previous study using ECMWF operational analyses that was the first to find a strong correlation pattern between the moisture budget over the West Antarctic sector and the Southern Oscillation index.