Patients exposed to a surgical safety checklist experience better postoperative outcomes, but this could simply reflect wider quality of care in hospitals where checklist use is routine.

Background: The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. Existing risk assessment tools are not valid for use in this population because the pattern of risk for poor outcomes differs from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a simple, preoperative risk stratification tool to identify African surgical patients at risk for in-hospital postoperative mortality and severe complications. Methods: ASOS was a 7-day prospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing surgery in Africa. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator was constructed with a multivariable logistic regression model for the outcome of in-hospital mortality and severe postoperative complications. The following preoperative risk factors were entered into the model; age, sex, smoking status, ASA physical status, preoperative chronic comorbid conditions, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. Results: The model was derived from 8799 patients from 168 African hospitals. The composite outcome of severe postoperative complications and death occurred in 423/8799 (4.8%) patients. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator includes the following risk factors: age, ASA physical status, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805 and good calibration with c-statistic corrected for optimism of 0.784. Conclusions: This simple preoperative risk calculator could be used to identify high-risk surgical patients in African hospitals and facilitate increased postoperative surveillance. Clinical trial registration: NCT03044899.

Summary Background Risk of mortality following surgery in patients across Africa is twice as high as the global average. Most of these deaths occur on hospital wards after the surgery itself. We aimed to assess whether enhanced postoperative surveillance of adult surgical patients at high risk of postoperative morbidity or mortality in Africa could reduce 30-day in-hospital mortality. Methods We did a two-arm, open-label, cluster-randomised trial of hospitals (clusters) across Africa. Hospitals were eligible if they provided surgery with an overnight postoperative admission. Hospitals were randomly assigned through minimisation in recruitment blocks (1:1) to provide patients with either a package of enhanced postoperative surveillance interventions (admitting the patient to higher care ward, increasing the frequency of postoperative nursing observations, assigning the patient to a bed in view of the nursing station, allowing family members to stay in the ward, and placing a postoperative surveillance guide at the bedside) for those at high risk (ie, with African Surgical Outcomes Study Surgical Risk Calculator scores ≥10) and usual care for those at low risk (intervention group), or for all patients to receive usual postoperative care (control group). Health-care providers and participants were not masked, but data assessors were. The primary outcome was 30-day in-hospital mortality of patients at low and high risk, measured at the participant level. All analyses were done as allocated (by cluster) in all patients with available data. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03853824 . Findings Between May 3, 2019, and July 27, 2020, 594 eligible hospitals indicated a desire to participate across 33 African countries; 332 (56%) were able to recruit participants and were included in analyses. We allocated 160 hospitals (13 275 patients) to provide enhanced postoperative surveillance and 172 hospitals (15 617 patients) to provide standard care. The mean age of participants was 37·1 years (SD 15·5) and 20 039 (69·4%) of 28 892 patients were women. 30-day in-hospital mortality occurred in 169 (1·3%) of 12 970 patients with mortality data in the intervention group and in 193 (1·3%) of 15 242 patients with mortality data in the control group (relative risk 0·96, 95% CI 0·69–1·33; p=0·79). 45 (0·2%) of 22 031 patients at low risk and 309 (5·6%) of 5500 patients at high risk died. No harms associated with either intervention were reported. Interpretation This intervention package did not decrease 30-day in-hospital mortality among surgical patients in Africa at high risk of postoperative morbidity or mortality. Further research is needed to develop interventions that prevent death from surgical complications in resource-limited hospitals across Africa. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Federati...

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Background The Clavien–Dindo classification is perhaps the most widely used approach for reporting postoperative complications in clinical trials. This system classifies complication severity by the treatment provided. However, it is unclear whether the Clavien–Dindo system can be used internationally in studies across differing healthcare systems in high‐ (HICs) and low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs). Methods This was a secondary analysis of the International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS), a prospective observational cohort study of elective surgery in adults. Data collection occurred over a 7‐day period. Severity of complications was graded using Clavien–Dindo and the simpler ISOS grading (mild, moderate or severe, based on guided investigator judgement). Severity grading was compared using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Data are presented as frequencies and ICC values (with 95 per cent c.i.). The analysis was stratified by income status of the country, comparing HICs with LMICs. Results A total of 44 814 patients were recruited from 474 hospitals in 27 countries (19 HICs and 8 LMICs). Some 7508 patients (16·8 per cent) experienced at least one postoperative complication, equivalent to 11 664 complications in total. Using the ISOS classification, 5504 of 11 664 complications (47·2 per cent) were graded as mild, 4244 (36·4 per cent) as moderate and 1916 (16·4 per cent) as severe. Using Clavien–Dindo, 6781 of 11 664 complications (58·1 per cent) were graded as I or II, 1740 (14·9 per cent) as III, 2408 (20·6 per cent) as IV and 735 (6·3 per cent) as V. Agreement between classification systems was poor overall (ICC 0·41, 95 per cent c.i. 0·20 to 0·55), and in LMICs (ICC 0·23, 0·05 to 0·38) and HICs (ICC 0·46, 0·25 to 0·59). Conclusion Caution is recommended when using a treatment approach to grade complications in global surgery studies, as this may introduce bias unintentionally.