In the past decade, a new trend in discrete choice modeling has emerged: psychological factors are explicitly incorporated to enhance the behavioral representation of the choice process. In this context, hybrid models expand on standard choice models by including attitudes and perceptions as latent variables. The complete model is composed of a group of structural equations describing the latent variables in terms of observable exogenous variables and a group of measurement relationships linking latent variables to certain observable indicators. Although the estimation of hybrid models requires the evaluation of complex multidimensional integrals, simulated maximum likelihood is implemented to solve the integrated multiple-equation model. This study empirically evaluates the application of hybrid choice modeling to data from a survey conducted by the Energy and Materials Research Group (Simon Fraser University, 2002 and 2003) of the virtual personal vehicle choices made by Canadian consumers when they are faced with technological innovations. The survey also includes a complete list of indicators that allows the application of a hybrid choice model formulation. It is concluded that the hybrid choice model is genuinely capable of adapting to practical situations by including latent variables among the set of explanatory variables. The incorporation of perceptions and attitudes in this way leads to more realistic models and gives a better description of the profile of consumers and their adoption of new automobile technologies.
The formulation of hybrid discrete choice models, including both observable alternative attributes and latent variables associated with attitudes and perceptions, has become a topic of discussion once more. To estimate models integrating both kinds of variables, two methods have been proposed: the sequential approach, in which the latent variables are built before their integration with the traditional explanatory variables in the choice model and the simultaneous approach, in which both processes are done together, albeit with a sophisticated but fairly complex treatment. Here both approaches are applied to estimate hybrid choice models by using two data sets: one from the Santiago Panel (an urban mode choice context with many alternatives) and another consisting of synthetic data. Differences between both approaches were found as well as similarities not found in earlier studies. Even when both approaches result in unbiased estimators, problems arise when valuations are obtained such as the value of time for forecasting and policy evaluation.
Within the continuous search for flexible models capable of dealing with different practical and realistic situations, discrete choice modeling has developed especially quickly: the simple but restrictive Multinomial Logit model has evolved into the powerful Logit Mixture model. This search for flexibility has continuously faced the problem of a more involved and extremely demanding estimation process. On the other hand, in the last few years the flexibility search has been extended to the next level, and discrete choice modeling now aims to explicitly incorporate psychological factors affecting decision making, with the goal of enhancing the behavioral representation of the choice process. Hybrid Choice Models (HCM) expand on standard choice models by including attitudes, opinions and perceptions as psychometric latent variables, which become observable through a group of measurement relationships or indicators.
Discrete choice models with error structures that are not independent and identically distributed have received enormous attention in the recent literature. A detailed synthetic study tests this type of model in a controlled case. With mixed logit and probit models as the study objects, calibration was implemented with the use of software available on the Internet. The controlled situation was built as a simulation laboratory, which generated databases with known parameters. The effects of various elements were analyzed: number of repetitions of the simulation, number of observations in the database, and how the use of Halton sequences improves the mixed logit calibration. The scale effects on the different models are also discussed. The results obtained in this specific context lead to some recommendations for future users of these powerful modeling tools. In particular, flexible structures require large sample sizes to calibrate the elements of the covariance matrix.
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