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The groundwater resource contained within the sandy aquifers of the Swan Coastal Plain, south-west Western Australia, provides approximately 60 percent of the drinking water for the metropolitan population of Perth. Rainfall decline over the past three decades coupled with increasing water demand from a growing population has resulted in falling dam storage and groundwater levels. Projected future changes in climate across south-west Western Australia consistently show a decline in annual rainfall of between 5 and 15 percent. There is expected to be a reduction of diffuse recharge across the Swan Coastal Plain. This study aims to quantify the change in groundwater recharge in response to a range of future climate and land cover patterns across south-west Western Australia. <br><br> Modelling the impact on the groundwater resource of potential climate change was achieved with a dynamically linked unsaturated/saturated groundwater model. A vertical flux manager was used in the unsaturated zone to estimate groundwater recharge using a variety of simple and complex models based on climate, land cover type (e.g. native trees, plantation, cropping, urban, wetland), soil type, and taking into account the groundwater depth. <br><br> In the area centred on the city of Perth, Western Australia, the patterns of recharge change and groundwater level change are not consistent spatially, or consistently downward. In areas with land-use change, recharge rates have increased. Where rainfall has declined sufficiently, recharge rates are decreasing, and where compensating factors combine, there is little change to recharge. In the southwestern part of the study area, the patterns of groundwater recharge are dictated primarily by soil, geology and land cover. In the sand-dominated areas, there is little response to future climate change, because groundwater levels are shallow and much rainfall is rejected recharge. Where the combination of native vegetation and clayey surface soils restricts possible infiltration, recharge rates are very sensitive to reductions in rainfall. In the northern part of the study area, both climate and land cover strongly influence recharge rates. Recharge under native vegetation is minimal and is relatively higher where grazing and pasture systems have been introduced after clearing of native vegetation. In some areas, the recharge values can be reduced to almost zero, even under dryland agriculture, if the future climate becomes very dry

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The effect of potential climate change on groundwater-dependent vegetation 7 largely depends on the nature of the climate change (drying or wetting) and the level of 8 current ecosystem dependency on groundwater resources. In south-western Australia, 9climate projections suggest a high likelihood of a warmer and drier climate. The paper 10 examines the potential environmental impacts by 2030 at the regional scale on 11 groundwater-dependent terrestrial vegetation (GDTV) adapted to various watertable 12 depths, based on the combined consideration of groundwater modelling results and the 13 framework for GDVT risk assessment. The methodology was tested for the historical 14 period from 1984 to 2007, allowing validation of the groundwater model results' 15 applicability to such an assessment. Climate change effects on GDTV were evaluated using 16 nine global climate models under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios by applying the 17 climate projections to groundwater models. It was estimated that under dry climate 18 scenarios, GDTV is likely to be under high and severe risk over more than 20% of its 19 current habitat area. The risk is also likely to be higher under an increase in groundwater 20 abstraction above current volumes. The significance of climate change risk varied across 21 the region, depending on both the intensity of the change in water regime and the 22 sensitivity of the GDTV to such change. Greater effects were projected for terrestrial 23 vegetation dependent on deeper groundwater (6 to 10 m). 24

Abstract. Over one million hectares of the wheatbelt of Western Australia (WA) are affected by secondary salinisation and this area is expected to increase to between 3 and 5 million hectares if current trends continue. Deep open drains, as an engineering solution to dryland salinity, have been promoted over the past few decades; however, the results of initial experiments were variable and no thorough analysis has been done. This research quantifies the effects of deep open drains on shallow and deep groundwater at farm and subcatchment level. Analysis of rainfall data showed that the only dry year (below average rainfall) after the construction of drainage in the Narembeen area of WA (in 1998 and 1999) was 2002. The dry year caused some decline in groundwater levels in the undrained areas but had no significant impact in the drained areas. The study found that the effect of drains on the groundwater levels was particularly significant if the initial water levels were well above the drain bed level, permeable materials were encountered, and drain depth was adequate (2.0–3.0 m). Visual observations and evidence derived from this study area suggested that if the drain depth cut through more permeable, macropore-dominated siliceous and ferruginous hardpans, which exist 1.5–3 m from the soil surface, its efficiency exceeded that predicted by simple drainage theory based on bulk soil texture. The effect of drains often extended to distances away (>200 m) from the drain. Immediately following construction, drains had a high discharge rate until a new hydrologic equilibrium was reached. After equilibrium, flow largely comprised regional groundwater discharge and was supplemented by quick responses driven by rainfall recharge. Comparison between the hydrology of the drained and undrained areas in the Wakeman subcatchment showed that, in the valley floors of the drained areas, the water levels fluctuated mainly between 1.5 and 2.5 m of the soil surface during most of the year. In the valley floors of the undrained areas, they fluctuated between 0 and 1 m of the soil surface. The impact of an extreme rainfall event (or unusual wet season) on drain performance was predicted to vary with distance from the drain. Within 100 m from the drain, water levels declined relatively quickly, whereas it took a year before the water levels at 200–300 m away from the drain responded. The main guidelines that can be recommended based on the results from this study are the drain depth and importance of ferricrete layer. In order to be effective, a drain should be more than 2 m deep and it should cut through the ferricrete layer that exists in many landscapes in the wheatbelt.

Abstract. This study assesses climate change impacts on water balance components of the regional unconfined aquifer systems in south-western Australia, an area that has experienced a marked decline in rainfall since the mid 1970s and is expected to experience further decline due to global warming. Compared with the historical period of 1975 to 2007, reductions in the mean annual rainfall of between 15 and 18 percent are expected under a dry variant of the 2030 climate which will reduce recharge rates by between 33 and 49 percent relative to that under the historical period climate. Relative to the historical climate, reductions of up to 50 percent in groundwater discharge to the ocean and drainage systems are also expected. Sea-water intrusion is likely in the PeelHarvey Area under the dry future climate and net leakage to confined systems is projected to decrease by up to 35 percent which will cause reduction in pressures in confined systems under current abstraction. The percentage of net annual recharge consumed by groundwater storage, and ocean and drainage discharges is expected to decrease and percentage of net annual recharge consumed by pumping and net leakage to confined systems to increase under median and dry future climates. Climate change is likely to significantly impact various water balance components of the regional unconfined aquifer systems of south-western Australia. We assess the quantitative climate change impact on the different components (the amounts) using the most widely used GCMs in combination with dynamically linked recharge and physically distributed groundwater models.