Potential climate change impacts on the water balance of regional unconfined aquifer systems in south-western Australia

Ali, Riasat; McFarlane, Don; Varma, Sunil; Dawes, Warrick; Emelyanova, Irina; Hodgson, Geoff

doi:10.5194/hess-16-4581-2012

Cited by 33 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…8). These results are comparable with previous studies under Mediterranean climate, which reported that the predicted reduction in groundwater recharge is two to four times the reduction in rain (Candela et al, 2009; Ali et al, 2012)…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

“…8). hese results are comparable with previous studies under Mediterranean climate, which reported that the predicted reduction in groundwater recharge is two to four times the reduction in rain Ali et al, 2012) he model showed that the reduced rain scenario would lead to an increase in chloride concentration in the vadose zone ( Fig. 9).…”

Section: Impact Of Climate Change On Groundwater Rechargementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another factor that can change the quality and quantity of natural water resources is a reduction in rain due to climate change. Nevertheless, only a few studies have investigated the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge (Candela et al, 2009; Ali et al, 2012; Crosbie et al, 2013) and groundwater quality (Gurdak et al, 2007). Hence, many aspects concerning the potential impact of climate change on groundwater are insufficiently understood and require additional investigation (Green et al, 2011).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Investigation of Groundwater Recharge under Agricultural Fields Using Transient Deep Vadose Zone Data

Turkeltaub

Dahan

Kurtzman

2014

Vadose Zone Journal

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Groundwater recharge is primarily influenced by land use and climate. Nevertheless, it is the flow and transport processes that take place in the vadose zone that ultimately control the quantity and quality of groundwater replenishment. Vadose zone monitoring systems (VMSs) were implemented under agricultural fields. The VMSs provided continuous information on both the temporal variation in water content and the chemical composition of the sediment pore water at multiple depths in the deep vadose zone (∼20 m). Models for vertical unsaturated flow and chloride transport were calibrated to the transient data. The calibrated models were then used to investigate the temporal characteristics of groundwater recharge coupled with chloride fluxes under a crop field and a grapefruit orchard. Examination of the transient data obtained under the two sites provided insight into the percolation processes and solute mobility in the deep vadose zone. Model simulations resulted in average recharge fluxes of 131 mm yr−1 under the orchard and 199 mm yr−1 under the crop field, even though average annual water input into the irrigated orchard was 2.6 times higher than that into the crop field (rainfed). The model also predicted a 44% drop in average recharge, as well as significant chloride accumulation in the vadose zone as a consequence of a reduction of 19% in rain following climate change scenarios in the area.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Impact Of Climate Change On Groundwater Rechargementioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Investigation of Groundwater Recharge under Agricultural Fields Using Transient Deep Vadose Zone Data

Turkeltaub

Dahan

Kurtzman

2014

Vadose Zone Journal

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“…Lack of rainfall drives vegetation to consume soil water to survive, and this may explain a turning point in SM found between 2000 and 2003. Soil water availability would have affected the dynamics of not only non‐forest but also forest, and the predicted decline in rainfall (Ali et al, ) may further suppress vegetation growth.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vegetation dynamics and rainfall sensitivity for different vegetation types of the Australian continent in the dry period 2002–2010

et al. 2017

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Over the past 100 years, Australia has experienced pronounced changes in rainfall patterns, which in south-western Australia (SWAU) has resulted in both a >50% decrease of runoff since 1975 and effects on vegetation health. Resolving the dynamics of vegetation and climate is a prerequisite for predicting the response of vegetation to future climates and carbon mitigation objectives. With multi-resource vegetation indices (VIs; normalized difference vegetation index and leaf area index) and gridded climate data, this paper examines vegetation dynamics and sensitivity to rainfall change on the Australian continent for the past long drought period (2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010). We found that rainfall and VIs declined across 90% and 80% of the whole continent, respectively, compared to the baseline period of 2000-2001. The most dramatic declines in VIs occurred in open shrublands near the center of Australia and in SWAU, coinciding with significant reductions in rainfall and soil moisture. Overall, a strong relationship between water (rainfall and soil moisture) and VIs was detected in places where rainfall declined dramatically (up to 5 mm/year since 1970). For five major vegetation types, croplands showed the highest sensitivity to water change, followed by grasslands and woody savanna. Moderate sensitivity of open shrublands to water change was found, while evergreen broadleaf forests only showed a slight sensitivity to soil moisture change. Although there was no consistent significant relationship between rainfall and VIs of evergreen broadleaf forests, forests in south-eastern Australia, where rainfall had declined since 1997, have become more sensitive to rainfall change than in SWAU. Our results provide evidence that, at this scale of assessment and with interpolated data sets, a lasting reduced rainfall pattern has been a key factor constraining vegetation growth over the Australian continent.

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“…Since the 1970s, this region has experienced a 10-20% decrease in average annual rainfall that resulted in a mean annual rainfall of 775 mm in the period 2004-2014 [40][41][42]. There is evidence that climate change has been impacting the hydrology of the unconfined aquifer since the 1970s [43][44][45], leading to less surface water availability [46,47]. Local-scale hydrologic changes associated with land-use change and groundwater abstraction may also impact water Climate change, via its impact on rainfall and groundwater recharge, is an important regional driver of wetland hydrology and ecological functions [38,39].…”

Section: Case Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation Tipping Points of a Wetland under a Drying Climate

Nanda

Beesley

Locatelli

et al. 2018

Water

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Wetlands experience considerable alteration to their hydrology, which typically contributes to a decline in their overall ecological integrity. Wetland management strategies aim to repair wetland hydrology and attenuate wetland loss that is associated with climate change. However, decision makers often lack the data needed to support complex social environmental systems models, making it difficult to assess the effectiveness of current or past practices. Adaptation Tipping Points (ATPs) is a policy-oriented method that can be useful in these situations. Here, a modified ATP framework is presented to assess the suitability of ecosystem management when rigorous ecological data are lacking. We define the effectiveness of the wetland management strategy by its ability to maintain sustainable minimum water levels that are required to support ecological processes. These minimum water requirements are defined in water management and environmental policy of the wetland. Here, we trial the method on Forrestdale Lake, a wetland in a region experiencing a markedly drying climate. ATPs were defined by linking key ecological objectives identified by policy documents to threshold values for water depth. We then used long-term hydrologic data to assess if and when thresholds were breached. We found that from the mid-1990s, declining wetland water depth breached ATPs for the majority of the wetland objectives. We conclude that the wetland management strategy has been ineffective from the mid-1990s, when the region's climate dried markedly. The extent of legislation, policies, and management authorities across different scales and levels of governance need to be understood to adapt ecosystem management strategies. Empirical verification of the ATP assessment is required to validate the suitability of the method. However, in general we consider ATPs to be a useful desktop method to assess the suitability of management when rigorous ecological data are lacking.

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Potential climate change impacts on the water balance of regional unconfined aquifer systems in south-western Australia

Cited by 33 publications

References 51 publications

Investigation of Groundwater Recharge under Agricultural Fields Using Transient Deep Vadose Zone Data

Investigation of Groundwater Recharge under Agricultural Fields Using Transient Deep Vadose Zone Data

Vegetation dynamics and rainfall sensitivity for different vegetation types of the Australian continent in the dry period 2002–2010

Adaptation Tipping Points of a Wetland under a Drying Climate

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