-The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from . The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

O conhecimento dos prováveis impactos das mudanças climáticas globais sobre a ocorrência de doenças de plantas é de grande importância para o setor agrícola, pois permite a elaboração de estratégias de controle. O presente trabalho teve por finalidade estudar os possíveis impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a sigatoka-negra da bananeira, por meio da elaboração de mapas de distribuição da doença confeccionados a partir dos cenários disponibilizados pelo IPCC. Os mapas mostraram que haverá redução da área favorável à doença no país. Tal redução será gradativa para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080 e de forma mais acentuada no cenário A2 que no B2. Apesar disso, extensas áreas ainda continuarão favoráveis à ocorrência da doença, especialmente no período de novembro a abril.

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great i m p o rt a n c e f or a gr i c u l t u re s i n c e i t a l lo ws t h e e va lu a t i o n of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work a i m e d t o s i m u la t e f u t u re s c e n a ri o s of c off ee r u s t ( H e m i l e i a vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3. 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of lat itude and longitude for ten produ cing stat es in Bra zil. The c li m at e vari ab les u s ed were ma xim um an d m in i mu m m on t hly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from . A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.The Fourth Assessment Report (Working Group I) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that the global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide has increased as a result of human activities since 1750 and exceeds the pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years (11). As a result, the global surface temperature has increased approximately 0.2 °C per decade in the last three decades and 0.8 °C in the past century (9). The effects would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized.IPCC (10) published a set of emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) designed to serve as a basis for assessment of climate change (from 1990 to 2100). Each scenario represents a specific quantitative interpretation of one of four storylines (A1, A2, B1, and B2). Each storyline represents different demographic, social, economic, technological and environmental developments. General Circulation Models (GCM), run using these emission scenarios, have been developed to assess the potential impacts of global climate change.Assessment of climate change impacts on plant diseases is receiving increasing attention as adaptation strategies can come only from improved knowledge (6). Bergot et al. (2) have used a GCM to predict a range expansion of Phytophthora cinnamomi, over 100 years, by modeling the temperature of phloem in infected trees to evaluate overwintering probabilities. In order to assess the impacts of climate change Palavras-chave adicionais: Coffea arabica, ferrugem do cafeeiro, cenários futuros, aquecimento global. RESUMOA análise de risco das mudanças climáticas globais sobre doenças de plantas é de grande importância para o setor agrícola, pois permite a avaliação de estratégias de manej o p a ra m i n i mi za r prej u ízos futuros. O presente trabalho teve por objetiv...

Coffee is one of the most consumed beverages in the world, and its international market has been growing for many years. Unfortunately, the Brazilian coffee production is threatened by high temperatures projected by climate change models. We evaluated three schemes of low levels of shade, which avoid the loss of production, as a strategy to adapt coffee to possible climate change. Additionally, as field measurements are expensive and often difficult to implement, we used numerical simulation to complement the evaluation. The microclimate simulator software Envi-met is a computer program often used to simulate urban environments, and we tested it on agriculture design. We verified that the shaded schemes assessed in the field decreased the air temperature in 0.6 °C in the studied period and reduced other possible climate stressors such as wind speed, radiation and raised air humidity in the dry period. Envi-met described the studied meteorological variable cycle very well, showing that combining numerical modelling and field research may be an important tool for planning the adaptation of the coffee sector to possible climate change, allowing growers choose a proper technique for their regions and environmental conditions. Finally, we highlighted the importance of planning the shade scheme on coffee areas in an interdisciplinary approach, including local climate evaluation to achieve a balance between temperature attenuation and production.

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