In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.extreme precipitation events | climate change | aquatic ecology | Microcystis sp. | Anabaena sp.

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Cumulative daily load time series show that the early 2000s marked a step-change increase in riverine soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads entering the Western Lake Erie Basin from three major tributaries: the Maumee, Sandusky, and Raisin Rivers. These elevated SRP loads have been sustained over the last 12 yr. Empirical regression models were used to estimate the contributions from (i) increased runoff from changing weather and precipitation patterns and (ii) increased SRP delivery (the combined effects of increased source availability and/or increased transport efficiency of labile phosphorus [P] fractions). Approximately 65% of the SRP load increase after 2002 was attributable to increased SRP delivery, with higher runoff volumes accounting for the remaining 35%. Increased SRP delivery occurred concomitantly with declining watershed P budgets. However, within these watersheds, there have been long-term, largescale changes in land management: reduced tillage to minimize erosion and particulate P loss, and increased tile drainage to improve field operations and profitability. These practices can inadvertently increase labile P fractions at the soil surface and transmission of soluble P via subsurface drainage. Our findings suggest that changes in agricultural practices, including some conservation practices designed to reduce erosion and particulate P transport, may have had unintended, cumulative, and converging impacts contributing to the increased SRP loads, reaching a critical threshold around 2002.

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During the re-eutrophication of Lake Erie, dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) loading and concentrations to the lake have nearly doubled, while particulate phosphorus (PP) has remained relatively constant. One potential cause of increased DRP concentrations is P stratification, or the buildup of soil-test P (STP) in the upper soil layer (<5 cm). Stratification often accompanies no-till and mulch-till practices that reduce erosion and PP loading, practices that have been widely implemented throughout the Lake Erie Basin. To evaluate the extent of P stratification in the Sandusky Watershed, certified crop advisors were enlisted to collect stratified soil samples (0-5 or 0-2.5 cm) alongside their normal agronomic samples (0-20 cm) (n = 1758 fields). The mean STP level in the upper 2.5 cm was 55% higher than the mean of agronomic samples used for fertilizer recommendations. The amounts of stratification were highly variable and did not correlate with agronomic STPs (Spearman's r = 0.039, p = 0.178). Agronomic STP in 70% of the fields was within the buildup or maintenance ranges for corn (Zea mays L.) and soybeans [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] (0-46 mg kg −1 Mehlich-3 P). The cumulative risks for DRP runoff from the large number of fields in the buildup and maintenance ranges exceeded the risks from fields above those ranges. Reducing stratification by a one-time soil inversion has the potential for larger and quicker reductions in DRP runoff risk than practices related to drawing down agronomic STP levels. Periodic soil inversion and mixing, targeted by stratified STP data, should be considered a viable practice to reduce DRP loading to Lake Erie. Vertical Stratification of Soil Phosphorus as a Concern for Dissolved Phosphorus Runoff in the Lake Erie BasinDavid B. Baker,* Laura T. Johnson, Remegio B. Confesor, and John P. Crumrine T here is a long history of phosphorus (P) control programs in the Lake Erie Basin aimed at reducing cultural eutrophication. The first programs began in the 1970s and focused on controlling point sources (IJC, 1978), while the second focused on agricultural nonpoint sources, primarily through erosion control programs (IJC, 1983). The first was eminently successful in reducing total P (TP) loading from ~28,000 Mg yr −1 in 1968 to ~11,000 Mg yr −1 in 1981 (DePinto et al., 1986), while the second has fallen well short of its additional 2000-Mg yr −1 reduction target (OEPA, 2010; Baker et al., 2014a). In response to these P control programs, Lake Erie was viewed as a "poster child" for successful eutrophication control in the late 1980s and early 1990s (Matisoff and Ciborowski, 2005). Unfortunately, beginning in the late 1990s, the lake has undergone re-eutrophication such that the algal blooms of 2011 and 2015 were the largest and most widespread ever noted (Scavia et al., 2014;Stumpf et al., 2016).The re-eutrophication of Lake Erie corresponded temporally with the implementation of agricultural nonpoint-source controls that focused on the use of no-till and mulch-till practices to reduc...

Cyanobacterial blooms in western Lake Erie have recently garnered widespread attention. Current evidence indicates that a major source of the nutrients that fuel these blooms is the Maumee River. We applied a seasonal trend decomposition technique to examine long-term and seasonal changes in Maumee River discharge and nutrient concentrations and loads. Our results indicate similar long-term increases in both regional precipitation and Maumee River discharge (1975-2013), although changes in the seasonal cycles are less pronounced. Total and dissolved phosphorus concentrations declined from the 1970s into the 1990s; since then, total phosphorus concentrations have been relatively stable, while dissolved phosphorus concentrations have increased. However, both total and dissolved phosphorus loads have increased since the 1990s because of the Maumee River discharge increases. Total nitrogen and nitrate concentrations and loads exhibited patterns that were almost the reverse of those of phosphorus, with increases into the 1990s and decreases since then. Seasonal changes in concentrations and loads were also apparent with increases since approximately 1990 in March phosphorus concentrations and loads. These documented changes in phosphorus, nitrogen, and suspended solids likely reflect changing land-use practices. Knowledge of these patterns should facilitate efforts to better manage ongoing eutrophication problems in western Lake Erie.

In response to degraded water quality, federal policy makers in the US and Canada called for a 40% reduction in phosphorus (P) loads to Lake Erie, and state and provincial policy makers in the Great Lakes region set a load‐reduction target for the year 2025. Here, we configured five separate SWAT (US Department of Agriculture's Soil and Water Assessment Tool) models to assess load reduction strategies for the agriculturally dominated Maumee River watershed, the largest P source contributing to toxic algal blooms in Lake Erie. Although several potential pathways may achieve the target loads, our results show that any successful pathway will require large‐scale implementation of multiple practices. For example, one successful pathway involved targeting 50% of row cropland that has the highest P loss in the watershed with a combination of three practices: subsurface application of P fertilizers, planting cereal rye as a winter cover crop, and installing buffer strips. Achieving these levels of implementation will require local, state/provincial, and federal agencies to collaborate with the private sector to set shared implementation goals and to demand innovation and honest assessments of water quality‐related programs, policies, and partnerships.

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