SUMMARY A comprehensive GPS velocity field along the Dead Sea Fault System (DSFS) provides new constraints on along-strike variations of near-transform crustal deformation along this plate boundary, and internal deformation of the Sinai and Arabian plates. In general, geodetically derived slip rates decrease northwards along the transform (5.0 ± 0.2 to 2.2 ± 0.5 mm yr−1) and are consistent with geological slip rates averaged over longer time periods. Localized reductions in slip rate occur where the Sinai Plate is in ∼N–S extension. Extension is confined to the Sinai side of the fault and is associated with prominent changes in transform geometry, and with NW–SE striking, left-lateral splay faults, including the Carmel Fault in Israel and the Roum Fault in Lebanon. The asymmetry of the extensional velocity gradients about the transform reflects active fragmentation of the Sinai Plate along the continental margin. Additionally, elastic block modelling of GPS velocities requires an additional structure off-shore the northern DSF segment, which may correspond with a fault located along the continental margin, suggested by prior geophysical studies.

S U M M A R YNew Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements in NW Syria provide the first direct observations of near-field deformation associated with the northern Dead Sea fault system (DSFS) and demonstrate that the kinematics of the northern section of this transform plate boundary between the Arabian and Sinai plates deviate significantly from plate model predictions. Velocity estimates based on GPS survey campaigns in 2000, 2007 and 2008, demonstrate left-lateral shear along the northern DSFS with 1σ uncertainties less than 0.7 mm yr −1 . These velocities are consistent with an elastic dislocation model with a slip rate of 1.8-3.3 mm yr −1 and a locking depth of 5-16 km. This geodetically determined slip rate is about half of that reported farther south along the central section (Lebanese restraining bend) and the southern section (Jordan Valley and Wadi Araba) of the transform and consequently requires some deformation to occur away from the transform along other geological structures. The factor of two difference in slip rates along the transform is also consistent with differing estimates of total fault slip that have occurred since the mid Miocene: 20-25 km along the northern DSFS (in NW Syria) versus about 45 km along the southern DSFS segment. Some of the strain deficit may be accommodated by north-south shortening within the southwestern segment of the Palmyride fold belt of central Syria. Additionally, a distinct change in velocity occurs within the Sinai plate itself. These new GPS measurements, when viewed alongside the palaeoseismic record and the modest level of present-day seismicity, suggest that the reported estimates of recurrence time of large earthquakes (M > 7) along the northern section of the DSFS may be underestimated owing to temporal clustering of such large historical earthquakes. Hence, a revised estimate of the earthquake hazard may be needed for NW Syria.

The Africa–Arabia plate boundary comprises the Red Sea oceanic spreading centre and the left‐lateral Dead Sea Fault Zone (DSFZ); however, previous work has indicated kinematic inconsistency between its continental and oceanic parts. The Palmyra Fold Belt (PFB) splays ENE from the DSFZ in SW Syria and persists for ∼400 km to the River Euphrates, but its significance within the regional pattern of active crustal deformation has hitherto been unclear. We report deformation of Euphrates terraces consistent with Quaternary right‐lateral transpression within the PFB, indicating anticlockwise rotation (estimated as 0.3° Ma−1 about 36.0°N 39.8°E) of the block between the PFB and the northern DSFZ relative to the Arabian Plate interior. The northern DSFZ is shown to be kinematically consistent with the combination of Euler vectors for the PFB and the Red Sea spreading, resolving the inconsistency previously evident. The SW PFB causes a significant earthquake hazard, previously unrecognized, to the city of Damascus.

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