Abstract. This work introduces the S2M (SAFRAN - SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus - MEPRA) meteorological and snow cover reanalysis in the French Alps, Pyrenees and Corsica, spanning the time period from 1958 to 2020. The simulations are made over elementary areas, referred to as massifs, designed to represent the main drivers of the spatial variability observed in mountain ranges (elevation, slope and aspect). The meteorological reanalysis is performed by the SAFRAN system, which combines information from numerical weather prediction models (ERA-40 reanalysis from 1958 to 2002, ARPEGE from 2002 to 2020) and the best possible set of available in-situ meteorological observations. SAFRAN outputs are used to drive the Crocus detailed snow cover model, which is part of the land surface scheme SURFEX/ISBA. This model chain provides simulations of the evolution of the snow cover, underlying ground, and the associated avalanche hazard using the MEPRA model. This contribution describes and discusses the main climatological characteristics (climatology, variability and trends), and the main limitations of this dataset. We provide a short overview of the scientific applications using this reanalysis in various scientific fields related to meteorological conditions and the snow cover in mountain areas. An evaluation of the skill of S2M is also displayed, in particular through comparison to 665 independent in-situ snow depth observations. Further, we describe the technical handling of this open access data set, available at this address: http://dx.doi.org/10.25326/37#v2020.2. Scientific publications using this dataset must mention in the acknowledgments: "The S2M data are provided by Météo-France - CNRS, CNRM Centre d’Etudes de la Neige, through AERIS" and refer to it as Vernay et al. (2020).
Abstract. This work introduces the S2M (SAFRAN–SURFEX/ISBA–Crocus–MEPRA) meteorological and snow cover reanalysis in the French Alps, Pyrenees and Corsica, spanning the time period from 1958 to 2021. The simulations are made over elementary areas, referred to as massifs, designed to represent the main drivers of the spatial variability observed in mountain ranges (elevation, slope and aspect). The meteorological reanalysis is performed by the SAFRAN system, which combines information from numerical weather prediction models (ERA-40 reanalysis from 1958 to 2002, ARPEGE from 2002 to 2021) and the best possible set of available in situ meteorological observations. SAFRAN outputs are used to drive the Crocus detailed snow cover model, which is part of the land surface scheme SURFEX/ISBA. This model chain provides simulations of the evolution of the snow cover, underlying ground and the associated avalanche hazard using the MEPRA model. This contribution describes and discusses the main climatological characteristics (climatology, variability and trends) and the main limitations of this dataset. We provide a short overview of the scientific applications using this reanalysis in various scientific fields related to meteorological conditions and the snow cover in mountain areas. An evaluation of the skill of S2M is also displayed, in particular through comparison to 665 independent in situ snow depth observations. Further, we describe the technical handling of this open-access dataset, available at https://doi.org/10.25326/37#v2020.2. The S2M data are provided by Météo-France – CNRS, CNRM, Centre d'Études de la Neige, through AERIS (Vernay et al., 2022).
Highlights Provision of pan-European climate change impact indicators for ski tourism. The indicators account for natural snow cover processes, grooming and snowmaking. The indicators are provided for NUTS-3 areas by elevation steps of 100 m. The indicators combine reanalysis and regional climate model projections (1950–2100). The indicators are available freely through the Copernicus C3S Climate Data Store.
A comprehensive assessment of twenty-first century climate change in the European Alps is presented. The analysis is based on the EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble available at two grid spacings (12.5 and 50 km) and for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). The core simulation ensemble has been subject to a dedicated evaluation exercise carried out in the frame of the CH2018 Climate Scenarios for Switzerland. Results reveal that the entire Alpine region will face a warmer climate in the course of the twenty-first century for all emission scenarios considered. Strongest warming is projected for the summer season, for regions south of the main Alpine ridge and for the high-end RCP 8.5 scenario. Depending on the season, medium to high elevations might experience an amplified warming. Model uncertainty can be considerable, but the major warming patterns are consistent across the ensemble. For precipitation, a seasonal shift of precipitation amounts from summer to winter over most parts of the domain is projected. However, model uncertainty is high and individual simulations can show change signals of opposite sign. Daily precipitation intensity is projected to increase in all seasons and all sub-domains, while the wet-day frequency will decrease in the summer season. The projected temperature change in summer is negatively correlated with the precipitation change, i.e. simulations and/or regions with a strong seasonal mean warming typically show a stronger precipitation decrease. By contrast, a positive correlation between temperature change and precipitation change is found for winter. Among other indicators, snow cover will be strongly affected by the projected climatic changes and will be subject to a widespread decrease except for very high elevation settings. In general and for all indicators, the magnitude of the change signals increases with the assumed greenhouse gas forcing, i.e., is smallest for RCP 2.6 and largest for RCP 8.5 with RCP 4.5 being located in between. These results largely agree with previous works based on older generations of RCM ensembles but, due to the comparatively large ensemble size and the high spatial resolution, allow for a more decent assessment of inherent projection uncertainties and of spatial details of future Alpine climate change.
Convection permitting climate modelling is a promising avenue for climate change research and services especially in mountainous regions. Work is required to evaluate the results of high resolution simulations against relevant observations, and put them in a broader context against coarser resolution modelling frameworks. Here we evaluate numerical simulations with the convection permitting regional climate model CNRM-AROME ran at 2.5 km horizontal resolution over a large pan-Alpine domain in the European Alps, using either the ERA-Interim or climate model output as boundary conditions. This study analyses annual and seasonal characteristics of 2m temperature, total precipitation, solid fraction of precipitation and snow depth at the scale of the French Alps under past and future climate conditions. The results are compared with the local reanalysis S2M, and raw or adjusted, with the ADAMONT method, simulations of the regional climate model CNRM-ALADIN driven either by the ERA-Interim reanalysis or the CNRM-CM5 global climate model.The study highlights generally similar differences in past and future climate between the datasets, as well as obsta-1
<p>Despite continued progress and a growing literature assessing regional climate change worldwide, modeling and assessing climate characteristics in mountainous regions remain challenging. Yet the stakes are high in these regions. As significant changes affect glaciers and snowpack, having<br>cascading effects on regional hydrology, quantifying them as accurately as possible is necessary for societal actors to adapt and reduce the growing climate risks.</p><p>Convection permitting climate modelling is a promising avenue for climate change research and services, particularly in mountainous regions. Work is required to evaluate the results of high resolution simulations against relevant reference dataset and put them in a broader context against coarser resolution modeling frameworks.</p><p>Our research assesses the potentials and limitations of high resolution climate models to represent past and future changes in snow conditions in the European Alps.</p><p>Here, we present an insight from the convection permitting climate model (CPRCM) CNRM-AROME ran at 2.5 km horizontal resolution over a large pan-Alpine domain in the European Alps, using either the ERA-Interim or CNRM-CM5 output as boundary conditions.</p><p>Annual and seasonal characteristics of four variables (2m temperature, total precipitation, solid fraction of precipitation and snow depths) are compared over the French Alps with the local reanalysis S2M, and raw or adjusted, with the ADAMONT method, simulations of the regional<br>climate model CNRM-ALADIN driven either by the ERA-Interim reanalysis or the CNRM-CM5 global climate model.</p><p>The study generally highlights similar differences in past and future climate between the datasets, as well as obstacles to the use of some CNRM-AROME outputs as they stand. These consist of excessive accumulation of snow on the ground above 1800 m a.s.l., as well as lower temperature<br>values at same elevations than the S2M reanalysis and the ADAMONT-adjusted outputs.</p><p>Nevertheless, clear advantages of CNRM-AROME simulations compared to raw CNRM-ALADIN outputs appear, concerning the temperature fields, the better representation of precipitations, as well as the spatial variability closer to the reference data.</p>
<p>Wir pr&#228;sentieren eine umfassende Analyse des alpinen Klimawandels im 21. Jahrhundert basierend auf den regionalen Klimasimulationen der EURO-CORDEX Initiative. Klima&#228;nderungssignale verschiedener Temperatur- und Niederschlagsindikatoren sowie der nat&#252;rlichen Schneedecke bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts wurden unter expliziter Ber&#252;cksichtigung der Modellunsicherheiten und f&#252;r drei Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 und 8.5) ausgewertet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eindeutig, dass der Alpenraum im Laufe des Jahrhunderts mit einer weiteren Erw&#228;rmung zu rechnen hat. Deren Intensit&#228;t h&#228;ngt stark vom jeweils betrachteten Emissionsszenario ab und d&#252;rfte w&#228;hrend des Sommers und f&#252;r Regionen s&#252;dlich des Alpenhauptkamms am st&#228;rksten ausfallen. Je nach Jahreszeit gibt es Tendenzen zu einer leicht verst&#228;rkten Erw&#228;rmung in mittleren und hohen Lagen der Alpen. Die Unterschiede in der mittleren Temperatur&#228;nderung zwischen den Modellsimulationen k&#246;nnen betr&#228;chtlich sein, jedoch sind die Hauptmuster der projizierten Erw&#228;rmung konsistent &#252;ber das gesamte Ensemble und robust. Bei den mittleren jahreszeitlichen Niederschlagsmengen zeigt sich eine Tendenz zur Verschiebung vom Sommer in Richtung Winter, wobei hier noch eine relativ grosse Modellunsicherheit besteht und einzelne Simulationen von diesem generellen Muster abweichen k&#246;nnen. Hohe t&#228;gliche Niederschlagsmengen werden in alles Jahreszeiten tendenziell zunehmen w&#228;hrend die Niederschlagsh&#228;ufigkeit in den Sommermonaten abnimmt. Es zeigt sich ein zum Teil deutlicher Zusammenhang zwischen der projizierten &#196;nderung jahreszeitlicher Mitteltemperaturen und der mittleren Niederschlagsmengen, der von der jeweils betrachteten Jahreszeit abh&#228;ngt: Simulationen und Regionen mit starker Erw&#228;rmung weisen im Sommer eine recht deutliche Niederschlagsabnahme, im Winter aber eine vergleichsweise hohe Niederschlagszunahme auf. Die nat&#252;rliche Schneedecke des Alpenraums wird von den erwarteten &#196;nderungen bei Temperatur und Niederschlag deutlich beeinflusst und wird sich zumindest in tiefen und mittleren H&#246;henlagen merklich zur&#252;ckziehen. Unsere Ergebnisse best&#228;tigen generell die Erkenntnisse aus vorherigen Studien. Sie erlauben durch das grosse ausgewertete Modellensemble und die relativ hohe r&#228;umliche Aufl&#246;sung der Simulationen aber robustere Aussagen zu kleinr&#228;umigen Facetten des zuk&#252;nftigen alpinen Klimawandels und zur Projektionsunsicherheit.</p>
Summer mountain pastures (also called alpages) are a central element for many agro-pastoral livestock systems in the alpine region, by providing the feedstock for herds during the summer transhumance. However, vegetation phenology and productivity in mountain pastures are increasingly affected by climate hazards exacerbated by climate change, such as early snow removal, late frost events, or droughts. Difficulties can then arise to match animal demand with forage resource on alpages and, in the long term, threaten the sustainable management of these highly multifunctional socio-ecological systems. To help agro-pastoral actors adapt, an essential step is to quantify the risk of impacts on the forage resource, due to an increased occurrence or intensity of climate hazards.Exposure to climate hazards on alpages is defined locally by topographic aspects in combination with the broader influence of the regional climate. Our work therefore aimed at providing a tailored assessment of potential climate risk for the forage resource at the individual scale of each alpage in the French Alps. To this end, we developed agro-climatic indicators based on atmospheric and snow cover data accounting for geographic and topographic conditions, and applied them to a database providing unique spatially explicit information at the alpage level.For the first time, we introduce a description of agro-climatic conditions and provide a classification of agro-climatic profiles of alpages in the French Alps, ranging from low to high potential risk for the forage resource, mainly following a North-South gradient combined with altitude. We also bring insights on the evolutions of the climate risk with climate change and discuss management implications for agro-pastoral livestock systems using alpages. We finally present a web-based visualization tool that aim at communicating agro-climatic profiles and their evolution to practitioners and at assisting decision makers in understanding climate-related risks on the alpages of the French Alps.
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