SignificanceHigh death tolls from recent earthquakes have highlighted the need to better identify ways to effectively reduce seismic risk. We address this need by developing a new earthquake scenario ensemble approach. We model impacts from multiple different earthquake scenarios, identifying impacts that are common to multiple scenarios. This method allows us to estimate whether particular impacts are specific to certain earthquakes or occur irrespective of the location or magnitude of the next earthquake. Our method provides contingency planners with critical information on the likelihood, and probable scale, of impacts in future earthquakes, especially in situations where robust information on the likelihood of future earthquakes is incomplete, allowing disaster risk-reduction efforts to focus on minimizing such effects and reducing seismic risk.
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