Background The antibacterial, anti-inflammatory, and antiviral properties of azithromycin suggest therapeutic potential against COVID-19. Randomised data in mild-to-moderate disease are not available. We assessed whether azithromycin is effective in reducing hospital admission in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. MethodsThis prospective, open-label, randomised superiority trial was done at 19 hospitals in the UK. We enrolled adults aged at least 18 years presenting to hospitals with clinically diagnosed, highly probable or confirmed COVID-19 infection, with fewer than 14 days of symptoms, who were considered suitable for initial ambulatory management. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to azithromycin (500 mg once daily orally for 14 days) plus standard care or to standard care alone. The primary outcome was death or hospital admission from any cause over the 28 days from randomisation. The primary and safety outcomes were assessed according to the intention-to-treat principle. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04381962) and recruitment is closed.Findings 298 participants were enrolled from June 3, 2020, to Jan 29, 2021. Three participants withdrew consent and requested removal of all data, and three further participants withdrew consent after randomisation, thus, the primary outcome was assessed in 292 participants (145 in the azithromycin group and 147 in the standard care group). The mean age of the participants was 45•9 years (SD 14•9). 15 (10%) participants in the azithromycin group and 17 (12%) in the standard care group were admitted to hospital or died during the study (adjusted OR 0•91 [95% CI 0•43-1•92], p=0•80). No serious adverse events were reported.Interpretation In patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 managed without hospital admission, adding azithromycin to standard care treatment did not reduce the risk of subsequent hospital admission or death. Our findings do not support the use of azithromycin in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19.

BackgroundThe antibacterial, anti-inflammatory and antiviral properties of azithromycin suggest therapeutic potential against COVID-19. Randomised data in mild-moderate disease are lacking. We assessed whether azithromycin is effective in reducing hospitalisation in patients with mild-moderate COVID-19.MethodsThis open-label, randomised superiority clinical trial at 19 centres in the United Kingdom enrolled adults, ≥18 years, presenting to hospitals with clinically-diagnosed highly-probable or confirmed COVID-19 infection, with <14 days symptoms, considered suitable for initial ambulatory management. Patients were randomised (1:1) to azithromycin (500 mg daily orally for 14 days) or to standard care without macrolides. The primary outcome was the difference in proportion of participants with death or hospital admission from any cause over the 28 days from randomisation, assessed according to intention-to-treat (ITT). Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381962, Study closed.Findings298 participants were enrolled from 3rd June 2020 to 29th January 2021. The primary outcome was assessed in 292 participants. The primary endpoint was not significantly different between the azithromycin and control groups (Adjusted OR 0·91 [95% CI 0·43-1·92], p=0·80). Rates of respiratory failure, progression to pneumonia, all-cause mortality, and adverse events, including serious cardiovascular events, were not significantly different between groups.InterpretationIn patients with mild-moderate COVID-19 managed without hospital admission, adding azithromycin to standard care treatment did not reduce the risk of subsequent hospitalisation or death. Our findings do not support the use of azithromycin in patients with mild-moderate COVID-19.FundingNIHR Oxford BRC, University of Oxford and Pfizer Inc.Research in contextEvidence before this studyWe searched MEDLINE and the Cochrane Central register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) with the terms (“azithromycin”) AND (“COVID” OR “COVID-19”) AND (“clinical trials”), until March 25, 2021, with no language restrictions. We identified 42 studies, among which there were four completed randomised trials of azithromycin (with or without hydroxychloroquine) in hospitalised patients with severe disease, and three completed randomised trials of azithromycin in mild COVID-19 in primary care. The four trials in hospitalised patients randomised 8,988 participants to azithromycin or standard care or hydroxychloroquine and found no evidence of a difference in mortality, duration of hospital stay or peak disease severity. Of the three trials in primary care, these randomised participants with early disease to 3 or 5 days of therapy, of which only one assessed azithromycin as standalone therapy. This large, adaptive platform trial in the UK randomised 540 participants in primary care to 3 days treatment with azithromycin versus 875 to standard care alone and found no meaningful difference in time to first reported recovery, or of rates of hospitalisation (3% versus 3%) and there were no deaths. We did not identify any randomised trials in patients with COVID-19 managed in ambulatory care.Added value of this studyThe ATOMIC2 trial was uniquely-designed to assess azithromycin as a standalone therapy in those with mild-moderately COVID-19 presenting to emergency care, but assessed as appropriate for initial ambulatory management without hospital admission. ATOMIC2 also uniquely assessed high-dose, long-duration treatment to investigate the efficacy of putative anti-inflammatory effects. We found that azithromycin 500 mg daily for 14 days did not reduce the proportion of participants who died or required hospital admission from any cause over the 28 days from randomisation.Implications of all the available evidenceOur findings, taken together with existing data, suggest there is no evidence that azithromycin reduces hospitalisation, respiratory failure or death compared with standard care, either in early disease in the community, or those hospitalised with severe disease, or in those with moderate disease managed on an ambulatory pathway.

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Background Patients presenting with chest pain represent a large proportion of attendances to emergency departments. In these patients clinicians often consider the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), the timely recognition and treatment of which is clinically important. Clinical prediction models (CPMs) have been used to enhance early diagnosis of AMI. The Troponin-only Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (T-MACS) decision aid is currently in clinical use across Greater Manchester. CPMs have been shown to deteriorate over time through calibration drift. We aim to assess potential calibration drift with T-MACS and compare methods for updating the model. Methods We will use routinely collected electronic data from patients who were treated using TMACS at two large NHS hospitals. This is estimated to include approximately 14,000 patient episodes spanning June 2016 to October 2020. The primary outcome of acute myocardial infarction will be sourced from NHS Digital’s admitted patient care dataset. We will assess the calibration drift of the existing model and the benefit of updating the CPM by model recalibration, model extension and dynamic updating. These models will be validated by bootstrapping and one step ahead prequential testing. We will evaluate predictive performance using calibrations plots and c-statistics. We will also examine the reclassification of predicted probability with the updated TMACS model. Discussion CPMs are widely used in modern medicine, but are vulnerable to deteriorating calibration over time. Ongoing refinement using routinely collected electronic data will inevitably be more efficient than deriving and validating new models. In this analysis we will seek to exemplify methods for updating CPMs to protect the initial investment of time and effort. If successful, the updating methods could be used to continually refine the algorithm used within TMACS, maintaining or even improving predictive performance over time. Trial registration ISRCTN number: ISRCTN41008456