Landscape epidemiology provides a valuable framework to interpret, predict, and manage spatiotemporal patterns of disease. Yet, owing to the difficulty of detecting pathogen occurrence in free-ranging wildlife, disentangling the factors driving disease dynamics remains a considerable challenge, particularly at fine spatial scales. Here, we investigated the fine-scale landscape epidemiology of sarcoptic mange—a visually apparent disease caused by the mite Sarcoptes scabiei—in bare-nosed wombats (Vombatus ursinus), by: (1) characterizing the distribution and density of wombats within the landscape and (2) examining the effect of environmental variation on the occurrence and apparent prevalence of mange. Wombats were heterogeneously distributed over 19.4 km of transect space (0.096–1.39 wombats ha−1) and seven months of time (increasing by a factor of 1.76). Wombat density was negatively associated with distance to vegetation cover, supporting a general propensity for wombats to occur and burrow near vegetation (native and exotic, excluding pasture). The apparent prevalence of mange varied spatially (3.1–37.5%), with the probability of disease greater in wombats with minimal vegetation and low-lying pans in their estimated home range. We observed trends of increased prevalence in areas with more burrows available per wombat and in individuals occurring near vegetation cover (although not within their home range). Wombat density and active burrow density did not influence the prevalence of mange. This research emphasizes the fine scale at which spatiotemporal patterns of disease can manifest and is the first to investigate the influence of host density for any species with indirect transmission of S. scabiei. Collectively, our results suggest that individuals inhabiting less optimal habitat (pasture) may be at greater risk of disease, or that diseased wombats may be competitively excluded from more optimal habitat (vegetated areas). We discuss implications for understanding and managing mange in wombats and cross-applicability to other mange-affected species with environmental transmission.
Conserving nomadic species is challenging due to the difficulty in monitoring their characteristically transient populations, and thereby detecting range-wide declines. An example is the Yellow-tailed Black-Cockatoo (YTBC; Zanda funerea), which disperses widely in search of food and is regularly-but sporadically-observed across eastern Australia. Under climate warming, a general southward shift in species distributions is expected in the southern hemisphere, with the extreme southern margins being truncated by an ocean barrier. Given these constraints, we ask whether sufficient refugia will exist for the YTBC in the future, by: (i) modelling habitat relationships within current geographic range of the YTBC based on weather, climate, vegetation, and land use, and (ii) using this framework, coupled with climatemodel projections, to forecast 21 st century impacts. Intensive land use and high variability in temperature and rainfall seem to most limit YTBC occurrence. In contrast, areas with a cooler, stable climate, and a network of old-growth forests, such as occurs in parts of south-eastern Australia and Tasmania, are most suitable for the species. As Australia becomes progressively hotter under climate change, the preferred bioclimatic envelope of the YTBC is forecast to contract poleward (as a general pattern) and to fragment within the existing range. However, despite an extensive loss of climatically suitable regions, the YTBC might find stable refugia at the southern margins of its geographic range, although continued loss of old-growth forests undermines their nesting potential. Therefore, beyond habitat conservation, creating nesting opportunities within plantation forests would likely be an effective conservation strategy to preserve habitat quality in climate refugia.
Conserving nomadic species is challenging due to the difficulty in monitoring their characteristically transient populations, and thereby detecting range-wide declines. An example is the Yellow-tailed Black-Cockatoo (YTBC; Zanda funerea), which disperses widely in search of food and is regularly —but sporadically —observed across eastern Australia. Under climate warming, a general southward shift in species distributions is expected in the southern hemisphere, with the extreme southern margins being truncated by an ocean barrier. Given these constraints, we ask whether sufficient refugia will exist for the YTBC in the future, by: (i) modelling habitat relationships within current geographic range of the YTBC based on weather, climate, vegetation, and land use, and (ii) using this framework, coupled with climate –model projections, to forecast 21st century impacts. Intensive land use and high variability in temperature and rainfall seem to most limit YTBC occurrence. In contrast, areas with a cooler, stable climate, and a network of old–growth forests, such as occurs in parts of south-eastern Australia and Tasmania, are most suitable for the species. As Australia becomes progressively hotter under climate change, the preferred bioclimatic envelope of the YTBC is forecast to contract poleward (as a general pattern) and to fragment within the existing range. However, despite an extensive loss of climatically suitable regions, the YTBC might find stable refugia at the southern margins of its geographic range, although continued loss of old–growth forests undermines their nesting potential. Therefore, beyond habitat conservation, creating nesting opportunities within plantation forests would likely be an effective conservation strategy to preserve habitat quality in climate refugia.
Identifying environmental characteristics that limit species' distributions is important for contemporary conservation and inferring responses to future environmental change. The Tasmanian native hen is an island endemic flightless rail and a survivor of a prehistoric extirpation event. Little is known about the regional-scale environmental characteristics influencing the distribution of native hens, or how their future distribution might be impacted by environmental shifts (e.g. climate change). Using a combination of local fieldwork and species distribution modelling, we assess environmental factors shaping the contemporary distribution of the native hen, and project future distribution changes under predicted climate change. We find 37% of Tasmania is currently suitable for the native hens, owing to low summer precipitation, low elevation, human-modified vegetation and urban areas. Moreover, in unsuitable regions, urban areas can create ‘oases’ of habitat, able to support populations with high breeding activity by providing resources and buffering against environmental constraints. Under climate change predictions, native hens were predicted to lose only 5% of their occupied range by 2055. We conclude that the species is resilient to climate change and benefits overall from anthropogenic landscape modifications. As such, this constitutes a rare example of a flightless rail to have adapted to human activity.
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