ContextTasmania has been called the roadkill capital of Australia. However, little is known about the population-level impact of vehicle mortality on native mammals in the island state. AimsThe aims were to investigate the predictability of roadkill on a given route, based on models of species distribution and live animal abundance for three marsupial species in Tasmania – the Tasmanian pademelon (Thylogale billardierii), Bennett’s wallaby (Macropus rufogriseus) and the bare-nosed wombat (Vombatus ursinus) – and to assess the possibility of predicting the magnitude of state-wide road mortality based on live animal abundance. MethodsRoad mortality of the three species was measured on eight 15-km road segments in south-eastern Tasmania, during 16 weeks over the period 2016–17. Climate suitability was predicted using state-wide geographical location records, using species distribution models, and counts of these species from 190 spotlight survey roads. Key resultsThe Tasmanian pademelons were the most frequently killed animal encountered over the study period. Live abundance, predicted by fitting models to spotlight counts, did not correlate with this fatality rate for any species. However, the climate suitability index generated by the species distribution models was strongly predictive for wombat roadkill, and moderately so for pademelons. ConclusionsAlthough distributional and wildlife abundance records are commonly available and well described by models based on climate, vegetation and land-use predictors, this approach to climate suitability modelling has limited predictability for roadkill counts on specific routes. ImplicationsRoad-specific factors, such as characteristics of the road infrastructure, nearby habitats and behavioural traits, seem to be required to explain roadkill frequency. Determining their relative importance will require spatial analysis of roadkill locations.

1. Global road networks facilitate habitat modification and are integral to human expansion. Many animals, particularly scavengers, use roads as they provide a reliable source of food, such as carrion left after vehicle collisions. Tasmania is often cited as the 'roadkill capital of Australia', with the isolated offshore islands in the Bass Strait experiencing similar, if not higher, levels of roadkill. However, native mammalian predators on the islands are extirpated, meaning the remaining scavengers are likely to experience lower interference competition.2. In this study, we used a naturally occurring experiment to examine how the loss of mammalian carnivores within a community impacts roadside foraging behaviour by avian scavengers.3. We monitored the locations of roadkill and forest ravens Corvus tasmanicus, an abundant scavenger species, on eight road transects across the Tasmanian mainland (high scavenging competition) and the Bass Strait islands (low scavenging competition). We represented raven observations as one-dimensional point patterns, using hierarchical Bayesian models to investigate the dependence of raven spatial intensity on habitat, season, distance to roadkill and route location. 4. We found that roadkill carcasses were a strong predictor of raven presence along road networks. The effect of roadkill was amplified on roads on the Bass Strait islands, where roadside carrion was a predictor of raven presence across the entire year. In contrast, ravens were more often associated with roadkill on Tasmanian mainland roads in the autumn, when other resources were low. This suggests that in the absence of competing mammalian scavengers, ravens choose to feed on roadside carrion throughout the year, even in seasons when other resources are available. This lack of competition could be disproportionately benefiting forest ravens, leading to augmented raven populations and changes to the vertebrate community structure. 5.Our study provides evidence that scavengers modify their behaviour in response to reduced scavenger species diversity, potentially triggering trophic shifts and highlighting the importance of conserving or reintroducing carnivores within ecosystems.

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