Purpose
This study aims to formulate a mechanism design in the derivatives market, summarizing a framework to set up the Brazilian electricity futures market.
Design/methodology/approach
This exploratory study formulates a mechanism design in the derivatives market, summarizing a framework to set up the Brazilian electricity futures market.
Findings
The results show a positive economic outcome for the creation of the Brazilian futures electricity market.
Originality/value
The main feature in this work is to summarize a framework to set up the Brazilian electricity futures market applying mechanism design, applicable in other countries. The features of the mechanism are the space of expected results (Z), the strategies to survey the environmental space (θ) and the mechanism design – messages space (M).
Paper aims: To predict monthly corn, soybean, and sugar spot prices in Brazil using hybrid forecasting techniques.Originality: This study combines the Singular Spectrum Analysis with different forecasting methods.Research method: This paper presents a set of hybrid forecasting approaches combining Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with different univariate time series methods, ranging from complex seasonality methods to machine learning and autoregressive models to predict monthly corn, soybean, and sugar spot prices in Brazil. We carry out a range of out-ofsample forecasting experiments and use a comprehensive set of forecast evaluation metrics. We contrast the performance of the proposed approaches with that of a range of benchmark models.
Main findings:The results show that the proposed hybrid models present better performances, with the hybrid SSA-neural network approach providing the most competitive results in our sample.Implications for theory and practice: Forecasting agricultural prices is of paramount importance to assist producers, farmers, and the industry in decision-making processes.
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