Environment and Climate Change Canada’s FireWork air quality (AQ) forecast system for North America with near-real-time biomass burning emissions has been running experimentally during the Canadian wildfire season since 2013. The system runs twice per day with model initializations at 00 UTC and 12 UTC, and produces numerical AQ forecast guidance with 48-hr lead time. In this work we describe the FireWork system, which incorporates near-real-time biomass burning emissions based on the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) as an input to the operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS). To demonstrate the capability of the system we analyzed two forecast periods in 2015 (June 2–July 15, and August 15–31) when fire activity was high, and observed fire-smoke-impacted areas in western Canada and the western United States. Modeled PM2.5 surface concentrations were compared with surface measurements and benchmarked with results from the operational RAQDPS, which did not consider near-real-time biomass burning emissions. Model performance statistics showed that FireWork outperformed RAQDPS with improvements in forecast hourly PM2.5 across the region; the results were especially significant for stations near the path of fire plume trajectories. Although the hourly PM2.5 concentrations predicted by FireWork still displayed bias for areas with active fires for these two periods (mean bias [MB] of –7.3 µg m−3 and 3.1 µg m−3), it showed better forecast skill than the RAQDPS (MB of –11.7 µg m−3 and –5.8 µg m−3) and demonstrated a greater ability to capture temporal variability of episodic PM2.5 events (correlation coefficient values of 0.50 and 0.69 for FireWork compared to 0.03 and 0.11 for RAQDPS). A categorical forecast comparison based on an hourly PM2.5 threshold of 30 µg m−3 also showed improved scores for probability of detection (POD), critical success index (CSI), and false alarm rate (FAR). Implications: Smoke from wildfires can have a large impact on regional air quality (AQ) and can expose populations to elevated pollution levels. Environment and Climate Change Canada has been producing operational air quality forecasts for all of Canada since 2009 and is now working to include near-real-time wildfire emissions (NRTWE) in its operational AQ forecasting system. An experimental forecast system named FireWork, which includes NRTWE, has been undergoing testing and evaluation since 2013. A performance analysis of FireWork forecasts for the 2015 wildfire season shows that FireWork provides significant improvements to surface PM2.5 forecasts and valuable guidance to regional forecasters and first responders.
Abstract. Biomass burning activities can produce large quantities of smoke and result in adverse air quality conditions in regional environments. In Canada, the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) operational FireWork (v1.0) air quality forecast system incorporates near-real-time biomass burning emissions to forecast smoke plumes from fire events. The system is based on the ECCC operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) augmented with near-real-time wildfire emissions using inputs from the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS). Recent improvements to the representation of fire behaviour and fire emissions have been incorporated into the CFS Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (CFFEPS) v2.03. This is a bottom-up system linked to CWFIS in which hourly changes in biomass fuel consumption are parameterized with hourly forecasted meteorology at fire locations. CFFEPS has now also been connected to FireWork. In addition, a plume-rise parameterization based on fire-energy thermodynamics is used to define the smoke injection height and the distribution of emissions within a model vertical column. The new system, FireWork v2.0 (FireWork–CFFEPS), has been evaluated over North America for July–September 2017 and June–August 2018, which are both periods when western Canada experienced historical levels of fire activity with poor air quality conditions in several cities as well as other fires affecting northern Canada and Ontario. Forecast results were evaluated against hourly surface measurements for the three pollutant species used to calculate the Canadian Air Quality Health Index (AQHI), namely PM2.5, O3, and NO2, and benchmarked against the operational FireWork v1.0 system (FireWork-Ops). This comparison shows improved forecast performance and predictive skills for the FireWork–CFFEPS system. Modelled fire-plume injection heights from CFFEPS based on fire-energy thermodynamics show higher plume injection heights and larger variability. The changes in predicted fire emissions and injection height reduced the consistent over-predictions of PM2.5 and O3 seen in FireWork-Ops. On the other hand, there were minimal fire emission contributions to surface NO2, and results from FireWork–CFFEPS do not degrade NO2 forecast skill compared to the RAQDPS. Model performance statistics are slightly better for Canada than for the US, with lower errors and biases. The new system is still unable to capture the hourly variability of the observed values for PM2.5, but it captured the observed hourly variability for O3 concentration adequately. FireWork–CFFEPS also improves upon FireWork-Ops categorical scores for forecasting the occurrence of elevated air pollutant concentrations in terms of false alarm ratio (FAR) and critical success index (CSI).
Abstract:FireWork is an on-line, one-way coupled meteorology-chemistry model based on near-real-time wildfire emissions. It was developed by Environment and Climate Change Canada to deliver operational real-time forecasts of biomass-burning pollutants, in particular fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), over North America. Such forecasts provide guidance for early air quality alerts that could reduce air pollution exposure and protect human health. A multi-year (2013-2016) analysis of FireWork forecasts over a five-month period (May to September) was conducted. This work used an archive of FireWork outputs to quantify wildfire contributions to total PM 2.5 surface concentrations across North America. Different concentration thresholds (0.2 to 28 µg/m 3 ) and averaging periods (24 h to five months) were considered. Analysis suggested that, on average over the fire season, 76% of Canadians and 69% of Americans were affected by seasonal wildfire-related PM 2.5 concentrations above 0.2 µg/m 3 . These effects were particularly pronounced in July and August. Futhermore, the analysis showed that fire emissions contributed more than 1 µg/m 3 of daily average PM 2.5 concentrations on more than 30% of days in the western USA and northwestern Canada during the fire season.
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