Context:The overhead throwing motion is complex, and restrictions in range of motion (ROM) at the hip may place additional demands on the shoulder that lead to injury. However, the relationship between hip and shoulder ROM in athletes with and without a history of shoulder injury is unknown.Objective: To (1) determine if differences exist in hip and shoulder ROM between professional baseball players with a history of shoulder injury and those with no history of shoulder injury and (2) assess relationships between hip and shoulder ROM in these players.Design: Cross-sectional study.Patients or Other Participants: Fifty-seven professional baseball players.Main Outcome Measure(s): Outcome measures consisted of hip extension and internal rotation, shoulder internal and external rotation, glenohumeral internal-rotation deficit, and history of shoulder injury. Differences in shoulder and hip ROM were assessed with a 1-way analysis of variance.Associations between hip and shoulder ROM were assessed with linear regression.Results: Nonpitchers with a history of shoulder injury had more external rotation and less internal rotation of the shoulder than nonpitchers with no history of shoulder injury. Glenohumeral internal-rotation deficit was greater in both pitchers and nonpitchers with a history of shoulder injury. The relationship between dominant hip extension and shoulder external rotation was significant for pitchers with a history of shoulder injury and nonpitchers with a history of shoulder injury.Conclusions: Shoulder injury may be associated with specific measures of hip and shoulder ROM, and hip extension and shoulder external rotation may be related in baseball players with a history of shoulder injury. Additional research is necessary to understand the specific mechanisms of shoulder injury in the throwing athlete.Key Words: throwing athletes, injuries, glenohumeral internal-rotation deficit, kinetic chain Key Points N Shoulder internal rotation, nondominant hip internal rotation, and glenohumeral internal-rotation deficit were different in nonpitchers with and without a history of shoulder injury.N Dominant hip extension and shoulder external rotation were associated with a history of shoulder injury in both pitchers and nonpitchers.

Environment and Climate Change Canada’s FireWork air quality (AQ) forecast system for North America with near-real-time biomass burning emissions has been running experimentally during the Canadian wildfire season since 2013. The system runs twice per day with model initializations at 00 UTC and 12 UTC, and produces numerical AQ forecast guidance with 48-hr lead time. In this work we describe the FireWork system, which incorporates near-real-time biomass burning emissions based on the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) as an input to the operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS). To demonstrate the capability of the system we analyzed two forecast periods in 2015 (June 2–July 15, and August 15–31) when fire activity was high, and observed fire-smoke-impacted areas in western Canada and the western United States. Modeled PM2.5 surface concentrations were compared with surface measurements and benchmarked with results from the operational RAQDPS, which did not consider near-real-time biomass burning emissions. Model performance statistics showed that FireWork outperformed RAQDPS with improvements in forecast hourly PM2.5 across the region; the results were especially significant for stations near the path of fire plume trajectories. Although the hourly PM2.5 concentrations predicted by FireWork still displayed bias for areas with active fires for these two periods (mean bias [MB] of –7.3 µg m−3 and 3.1 µg m−3), it showed better forecast skill than the RAQDPS (MB of –11.7 µg m−3 and –5.8 µg m−3) and demonstrated a greater ability to capture temporal variability of episodic PM2.5 events (correlation coefficient values of 0.50 and 0.69 for FireWork compared to 0.03 and 0.11 for RAQDPS). A categorical forecast comparison based on an hourly PM2.5 threshold of 30 µg m−3 also showed improved scores for probability of detection (POD), critical success index (CSI), and false alarm rate (FAR). Implications: Smoke from wildfires can have a large impact on regional air quality (AQ) and can expose populations to elevated pollution levels. Environment and Climate Change Canada has been producing operational air quality forecasts for all of Canada since 2009 and is now working to include near-real-time wildfire emissions (NRTWE) in its operational AQ forecasting system. An experimental forecast system named FireWork, which includes NRTWE, has been undergoing testing and evaluation since 2013. A performance analysis of FireWork forecasts for the 2015 wildfire season shows that FireWork provides significant improvements to surface PM2.5 forecasts and valuable guidance to regional forecasters and first responders.

This paper presents a model to predict the probability that a lightning flash will lead to a detectable fire. This is done by estimating the probability of the lightning flash having a long-continuing current, the probability of ignition, the probability of survival, and the probability of arrival. Individual probabilities are calculated using the lightning, noon weather, and forest inventory data and combined to predict the number of ignitions, holdovers, and detectable fires within a region. The model was run for six fire seasons in Saskatchewan and predicted results were compared with the actual number of fires for that season. The model successfully predicted the number of fires on 55.7% of the days with a 64.8% detection rate and a false alarm rate of 29.7%. The model was found to be highly sensitive to moisture conditions, resulting in some unusually high predictions under dry conditions.

In support of Canada’s National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System, a project was initiated to develop and test procedures for estimating direct carbon emissions from fires. The Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) provides the infrastructure for these procedures. Area burned and daily fire spread estimates are derived from satellite products. Spatially and temporally explicit indices of burning conditions for each fire are calculated by CWFIS using fire weather data. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) provides detailed forest type and leading species information, as well as pre-fire fuel load data. The Boreal Fire Effects Model calculates fuel consumption for different live biomass and dead organic matter pools in each burned cell according to fuel type, fuel load, burning conditions, and resulting fire behaviour. Carbon emissions are calculated from fuel consumption. CWFIS summarises the data in the form of disturbance matrices and provides spatially explicit estimates of area burned for national reporting. CBM-CFS3 integrates, at the national scale, these fire data with data on forest management and other disturbances. The methodology for estimating fire emissions was tested using a large-fire pilot study. A framework to implement the procedures at the national scale is described.