Abstract:In this study, we developed a model of combined streamflow forecasting based on cross entropy to solve the problems of streamflow complexity and random hydrological processes. First, we analyzed the streamflow data obtained from Wudaogou station on the Huifa River, which is the second tributary of the Songhua River, and found that the streamflow was characterized by fluctuations and periodicity, and it was closely related to rainfall. The proposed method involves selecting similar years based on the gray correlation degree. The forecasting results obtained by the time series model (autoregressive integrated moving average), improved grey forecasting model, and artificial neural network model (a radial basis function) were used as a single forecasting model, and from the viewpoint of the probability density, the method for determining weights was improved by using the cross entropy model. The numerical results showed that compared with the single forecasting model, the combined forecasting model improved the stability of the forecasting model, and the prediction accuracy was better than that of conventional combined forecasting models.
Abstract:The development of the energy internet has become one of the key ways to solve the energy crisis. This paper studies the system architecture, energy flow characteristics and coordinated optimization method of the regional energy internet. Considering the heat-to-electric ratio of a combined cooling, heating and power unit, energy storage life and real-time electricity price, a double-layer optimal scheduling model is proposed, which includes economic and environmental benefit in the upper layer and energy efficiency in the lower layer. A particle swarm optimizer-individual variation ant colony optimization algorithm is used to solve the computational efficiency and accuracy. Through the calculation and simulation of the simulated system, the energy savings, level of environmental protection and economic optimal dispatching scheme are realized.
Abstract:Rainfall is an essential index to measure drought, and it is dependent upon various parameters including geographical environment, air temperature and pressure. The nonlinear nature of climatic variables leads to problems such as poor accuracy and instability in traditional forecasting methods. In this paper, the combined forecasting method based on data mining technology and cross entropy is proposed to forecast the rainfall with full consideration of the time-effectiveness of historical data. In view of the flaws of the fuzzy clustering method which is easy to fall into local optimal solution and low speed of operation, the ant colony algorithm is adopted to overcome these shortcomings and, as a result, refine the model. The method for determining weights is also improved by using the cross entropy. Besides, the forecast is conducted by analyzing the weighted average rainfall based on Thiessen polygon in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Since the predictive errors are calculated, the results show that improved ant colony fuzzy clustering can effectively select historical data and enhance the accuracy of prediction so that the damage caused by extreme weather events like droughts and floods can be greatly lessened and even kept at bay.
Based on the theory of risk assessment, the risk assessment method for an ultra-high voltage (UHV) AC/DC hybrid power system under severe disaster is studied. Firstly, considering the whole process of cascading failure, a fast failure probability calculation method is proposed, and the whole process risk assessment model is established considering the loss of both fault stage and recovery stage based on Monte Carlo method and BPA software. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation index system is proposed from the aspects of power system structure, fault state and economic loss, and the quantitative assessment of system risk is carried out by an entropy weight model. Finally, the risk assessment of two UHV planning schemes are carried out and compared, which proves the effectiveness of the research work.
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