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The April 16, 1991, eruption of Volcµn de Colima represents a classical example of partial dome collapse with the generation of progressively longerrunout, Merapi-type pyroclastic flows that traveled up to 4 km along the El Cordoban gullies (East, Central and West). The flows filled the gullies with block-and-ash flow deposits up to 10 m thick, of which, after 7 years of erosion, only remnants remained in the El Cordoban West and East gullies. The El Cordoban Central gully, however, provided a well-preserved and incised longitudinal section of the 1991 deposits. The deposits were emplaced as proximal and distal facies, separated by a change in slope angle from >30 to <20. The proximal facies consists of massive, clast-supported flow units (up to 1 m thick) with andesite blocks locally supported by a matrix of coarse ash and devoid of segregation structures or grading. The distal facies consists of a massive, matrixsupported deposit up to 8 m thick, which contains dispersed andesite blocks in a fine ash matrix. In the distal facies, a train of blocks marks flow-unit upper boundaries and, although sorting is poor, some grading is present. Thin, finely stratified, or dune-bedded layers of fine ash material are locally present above or below units of both facies. Sedimentologic parameters show that the size or fraction of large pyroclasts (larger than 1 f) decreases from proximal to distal facies, as the percentage of matrix (0 to 4 f) increases, especially immediately beyond the break in slope. We propose that the propagation of the Colima pyroclastic flows is critically dependent on local slope angle, the presence of erodible slope debris, and the decrease in grain size with distance from the vent. The progressive fining is probably caused by some combination of erosion, clast breakup and deposition of larger pyroclasts, and is itself influenced by the slope angle. In the proximal region, the flows moved as granular avalanches, in which interacting grains ground each other and erosion occurred to produce an overriding dilute ash cloud. The maximum runout distance of the avalanches was controlled by the angle of repose of the material, and the volume and grain size of source and eroded material. Because the slope angle is close to the repose angle for this debris, granular avalanches were not able to propagate far beyond the change in slope. If, however, an avalanche had enough mass in finer grain size fractions, at least part of the flow continued beyond the break in slope and across the volcano apron, propagating in a turbulent state and depositing surge layers, or in an otherwise settling-modified state and depositing block-and-ash flow layers.

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Abstract. We detail a new prediction-oriented procedure aimed at volcanic hazard assessment based on geophysical mass flow models constrained with heterogeneous and poorly defined data. Our method relies on an itemized application of the empirical falsification principle over an arbitrarily wide envelope of possible input conditions. We thus provide a first step towards a objective and partially automated experimental design construction. In particular, instead of fully calibrating model inputs on past observations, we create and explore more general requirements of consistency, and then we separately use each piece of empirical data to remove those input values that are not compatible with it. Hence, partial solutions are defined to the inverse problem. This has several advantages compared to a traditionally posed inverse problem: (i) the potentially nonempty inverse images of partial solutions of multiple possible forward models characterize the solutions to the inverse problem; (ii) the partial solutions can provide hazard estimates under weaker constraints, potentially including extreme cases that are important for hazard analysis; (iii) if multiple models are applicable, specific performance scores against each piece of empirical information can be calculated. We apply our procedure to the case study of the Atenquique volcaniclastic debris flow, which occurred on the flanks of Nevado de Colima volcano (Mexico), 1955. We adopt and compare three depth-averaged models currently implemented in the TITAN2D solver, available from https://vhub.org (Version 4.0.0 – last access: 23 June 2016). The associated inverse problem is not well-posed if approached in a traditional way. We show that our procedure can extract valuable information for hazard assessment, allowing the exploration of the impact of synthetic flows that are similar to those that occurred in the past but different in plausible ways. The implementation of multiple models is thus a crucial aspect of our approach, as they can allow the covering of other plausible flows. We also observe that model selection is inherently linked to the inversion problem.