Emissions of gases and particles from the combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels in Africa are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to the rapid growth of African cities and megacities. There is currently no regional emissions inventory that provides estimates of anthropogenic combustion for the African continent. This work provides a quantification of the evolution of African combustion emissions from 2005 to 2030, using a bottom-up method. This inventory predicts very large increases in black carbon, organic carbon, CO, NO x , SO 2 and non-methane hydrocarbon emissions if no emission regulations are implemented. This paper discusses the effectiveness of scenarios involving certain fuels, specific to Africa in each activity sector and each region (western, eastern, northern and southern Africa), to reduce the emissions. The estimated trends in African emissions are consistent with emissions provided by global inventories, but they display a larger range of values.African combustion emissions contributed significantly to global emissions in 2005. This contribution will increase more significantly by 2030: organic carbon emissions will for example make up 50% of the global emissions in 2030. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of African anthropogenic emissions could be similar to African biomass burning emissions around 2030.

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Abstract. African biomass burning emission inventories for gaseous and particulate species have been constructed at a resolution of 1 km by 1km with daily coverage for the 2000-2007 period. These inventories are higher than the GFED2 inventories, which are currently widely in use. Evaluation specifically focusing on combustion aerosol has been carried out with the ORISAM-TM4 global chemistry transport model which includes a detailed aerosol module. This paper compares modeled results with measurements of surface BC concentrations and scattering coefficients from the AMMA Enhanced Observations period, aerosol optical depths and single scattering albedo from AERONET sunphotometers, LIDAR vertical distributions of extinction coefficients as well as satellite data. Aerosol seasonal and interannual evolutions over the 2004-2007 period observed at regional scale and more specifically at the Djougou (Benin) and Banizoumbou (Niger) AMMA/IDAF sites are well reproduced by our global model, indicating that our biomass burning emission inventory appears reasonable.

[1] Classical aerosol schemes use either a sectional (bin) or lognormal approach. Both approaches have particular capabilities and interests: the sectional approach is able to describe every kind of distribution, whereas the lognormal one makes assumption of the distribution form with a fewer number of explicit variables. For this last reason we developed a three-moment lognormal aerosol scheme named ORILAM to be coupled in three-dimensional mesoscale or CTM models. This paper presents the concept and hypothesis of a range of aerosol processes such as nucleation, coagulation, condensation, sedimentation, and dry deposition. One particular interest of ORILAM is to keep explicit the aerosol composition and distribution (mass of each constituent, mean radius, and standard deviation of the distribution are explicit) using the prediction of threemoment (m0, m3, and m6). The new model was evaluated by comparing simulations to measurements from the Escompte campaign and to a previously published aerosol model. The numerical cost of the lognormal mode is lower than two bins of the sectional one.Citation: Tulet, P., V. Crassier, F. Cousin, K. Suhre, and R. Rosset (2005), ORILAM, a three-moment lognormal aerosol scheme for mesoscale atmospheric model: Online coupling into the Meso-NH-C model and validation on the Escompte campaign, J. Geophys.

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[1] The mesoscale air quality Mesoscale Nonhydrostatic Chemistry (Meso-NH-C) model is applied to a complex pollution episode over Western Europe during the period 11 to 12 August 1997. As observed in satellite pictures and as simulated, the complexity of this episode is related to the presence of anticyclonic clear-sky areas and regions with deep convective activity in the simulation domain. A brief presentation of the model is made that covers in particular the on-line coupling capability for calculating meteorological and chemical concentration fields at each time step. Then, emphasis is put upon the simulation of transboundary pollution fluxes from London to northern France in a zone of large horizontal wind gradients. Comparison with data from the French Agence De l'Environnement et de la Maitrise de l'Energie (ADEME) pollution network indicates that ozone concentrations and time of arrival of the pollution plume are correctly predicted at surface stations in northern France. A sensitivity analysis relying upon local ozone production and pollution transport has shown that $30% of ozone maxima levels could be attributed to regional transboundary fluxes.

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