Emissions of gases and particles from the combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels in Africa are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to the rapid growth of African cities and megacities. There is currently no regional emissions inventory that provides estimates of anthropogenic combustion for the African continent. This work provides a quantification of the evolution of African combustion emissions from 2005 to 2030, using a bottom-up method. This inventory predicts very large increases in black carbon, organic carbon, CO, NO x , SO 2 and non-methane hydrocarbon emissions if no emission regulations are implemented. This paper discusses the effectiveness of scenarios involving certain fuels, specific to Africa in each activity sector and each region (western, eastern, northern and southern Africa), to reduce the emissions. The estimated trends in African emissions are consistent with emissions provided by global inventories, but they display a larger range of values.African combustion emissions contributed significantly to global emissions in 2005. This contribution will increase more significantly by 2030: organic carbon emissions will for example make up 50% of the global emissions in 2030. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of African anthropogenic emissions could be similar to African biomass burning emissions around 2030.

Abstract. African biomass burning emission inventories for gaseous and particulate species have been constructed at a resolution of 1 km by 1km with daily coverage for the 2000-2007 period. These inventories are higher than the GFED2 inventories, which are currently widely in use. Evaluation specifically focusing on combustion aerosol has been carried out with the ORISAM-TM4 global chemistry transport model which includes a detailed aerosol module. This paper compares modeled results with measurements of surface BC concentrations and scattering coefficients from the AMMA Enhanced Observations period, aerosol optical depths and single scattering albedo from AERONET sunphotometers, LIDAR vertical distributions of extinction coefficients as well as satellite data. Aerosol seasonal and interannual evolutions over the 2004-2007 period observed at regional scale and more specifically at the Djougou (Benin) and Banizoumbou (Niger) AMMA/IDAF sites are well reproduced by our global model, indicating that our biomass burning emission inventory appears reasonable.

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Based on unique 50-year datasets from 1962 to 2011, this study diagnoses the variability of climate at Lamto (6.13°N, 5.02°W) in Côte d’Ivoire. A combined pluviothermal index is used to identify climate regions of West Africa. The interdecadal change of the climate is analyzed along with a discussion on the West African Monsoon (WAM) circulation. The impact of vegetation is also analyzed. It is shown that Lamto has mainly a subhumid climate but, in some particular years, this area has a humid climate. Two decades (1962–1971 and 2002–2011) exhibit rainfall excess and the last three ones (1972–1981, 1982–1991, and 1992–2001) show a rainfall deficit that affected West Africa in the early 1970s. The meridional wind field from 1000 hPa to 700 hPa is used to study the WAM variability. The level of the WAM is the lowest (~860–890 hPa) during the active period of the northern wind coming from the Sahara desert (November–February). During 1962–1971 and 2007–2009, the depth of the monsoon at Lamto reaches 300 hPa with an increase in the rainfall. A relationship between potential evapotranspiration and the climate highlights rainfall deficit in 1969 and rainfall excess in 2001–2011.